
@inproceedings{mckee_relationship_1993,
	address = {Anaheim},
	title = {The {Relationship} of {Drought} {Frequency} and {Duration} to {Time} {Scales}},
	language = {en},
	booktitle = {8th {Conference} on {Applied} {Climatology}, {Am}. {Meteorol}. {Soc}.},
	publisher = {American Meteorological Society},
	author = {McKee, Thomas B. and Doesken, Nolan J. and Kleist, John},
	year = {1993},
}

@book{gladstones_viticulture_1992,
	address = {Adelaide},
	title = {Viticulture and {Environment}},
	isbn = {1-875130-12-3},
	publisher = {Winetitles},
	author = {Gladstones, John},
	year = {1992},
}

@incollection{huglin_nouveau_1978,
	address = {Constança, Roumanie},
	series = {1},
	title = {Nouveau mode d'évaluation des possibilités héliothermiques d'un milieu viticole},
	booktitle = {Symposium {International} sur l'Écologie de la {Vigne}},
	publisher = {Ministère de l'Agriculture et de l'Industrie Alimentaire},
	author = {Huglin, P.},
	year = {1978},
	pages = {89--98},
}

@article{tonietto_multicriteria_2004,
	title = {A multicriteria climatic classification system for grape-growing regions worldwide},
	volume = {124},
	issn = {0168-1923},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192304000115},
	doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2003.06.001},
	abstract = {This study concerns firstly the methodology to describe the climate of vineyards, on a macroclimate scale of viticultural regions worldwide. Three synthetic and complementary viticultural climatic indices (potential water balance of the soil over the growing cycle, heliothermal conditions over the growing cycle and night temperature during maturation), validated as descriptors, are used: (1) dryness index (DI) which corresponds to the potential water balance of the soil of Riou’s index, here adapted using precise conditions to calculate it, as an indicator of the level of presence-absence of dryness; (2) heliothermal index (HI) which corresponds to Huglin’s heliothermal index; (3) cool night index (CI) an index developed as an indicator of night temperature conditions during maturation. These indices are representative of the variability of the viticultural climate worldwide, related to the requirements of varieties, vintage quality (sugar, colour, aroma), and typeness of the wines. A Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (Géoviticulture MCC System) for the grape-growing regions worldwide is formulated based on classes for each of the three climate indices, with elements to explain the results. Three formulated concepts provide the system base: viticultural climate, climatic group and viticultural climate with intra-annual variability (for warm regions with more than one harvest a year in natural climate conditions). The application of the Géoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System is presented for 97 grape-growing regions in 29 countries. The system is a research tool for grape-growing and wine-making zoning. It also enables work at different levels on the scale, on a world-wide scale or larger – the large grape-growing region, the small grape-growing region, as shown by the studies performed. It allows relating the viticultural climate to the elements of grape quality and the typeness of the wines considering the climatic zone.},
	number = {1–2},
	urldate = {2014-02-19},
	journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
	author = {Tonietto, Jorge and Carbonneau, Alain},
	month = jul,
	year = {2004},
	keywords = {Climate classification, Climate models, Vineyard, Water balance, Zoning},
	pages = {81--97},
}

@article{jackson_prediction_1988,
	title = {Prediction of a {District}'s {Grape}-{Ripening} {Capacity} {Using} a {Latitude}-{Temperature} {Index} ({LTI})},
	volume = {39},
	url = {https://www.ajevonline.org/content/39/1/19.abstract},
	abstract = {A district's grape-ripening capacity has previously been related to the area's growing degree days (DD) or the mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWM). It has been observed that grape cultivars ripened in parts of New Zealand where they did not fulfill the DD or MTWM criteria used for Europe or North America; thus, an attempt was made to find a more universal index. Cultivars were divided into four distinct groups, based on their ripening requirements, and 14 indices were tested for their ability to relate the groups to the districts in which they are known to ripen. Seventy-eight locations in Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand were used. Three groups of locations were adequately separated using DD or MTWM and a different three by latitude. All groups were separated, by an index combining latitude and MTWM. This is termed the latitude-temperature index (LTI) and has more general usefulness for all areas than any other index tested. LTI = MTWM (60 - latitude).},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	journal = {American Journal of Enology and Viticulture},
	author = {Jackson, D. I. and Cherry, N. J.},
	month = jan,
	year = {1988},
	keywords = {climate, degree days, Grapes, Grapevines, heat units, latitude-temperature index, LTI, Vitis vinifera},
	pages = {19--28},
}

@article{hall_spatial_2010,
	title = {Spatial analysis of climate in winegrape-growing regions in {Australia}},
	volume = {16},
	copyright = {© 2010 Australian Society of Viticulture and Oenology Inc.},
	issn = {1755-0238},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1755-0238.2010.00100.x/abstract},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1755-0238.2010.00100.x},
	abstract = {Background and Aims: Temperature-based indices are commonly used to indicate long-term suitability of climate for commercially viable winegrape production of different grapevine cultivars, but their calculation has been inconsistent and often inconsiderate of within-region spatial variability. This paper (i) investigates and quantifies differences between four such indices; and (ii) quantifies the within-region spatial variability for each Australian wine region. Methods and Results: Four commonly used indices describing winegrape growing suitability were calculated for each Australian geographic indication (GI) using temperature data from 1971 to 2000. Within-region spatial variability was determined for each index using a geographic information system. The sets of indices were compared with each other using first- and second-order polynomial regression. Heat-sum temperature indices were strongly related to the simple measure of mean growing season temperature, but variation resulted in some differences between indices. Conclusion: Temperature regime differences between the same region pairs varied depending upon which index was employed. Spatial variability of the climate indices within some regions led to significant overlap with other regions; knowledge of the climate distribution provides a better understanding of the range of cultivar suitability within each region. Significance of the Study: Within-region spatial variability and the use of different indices over inconsistent time periods to describe temperature regimes have, before now, made comparisons of climates between viticulture regions difficult. Consistent calculations of indices, and quantification of spatial variability, enabled comparisons of Australian GIs to be made both within Australia and with American Viticultural Areas in the western United States.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2016-07-08},
	journal = {Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research},
	author = {Hall, A. and Jones, Gregory V.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2010},
	keywords = {Australian geographic indication, climate, degree-day, viticulture, wine},
	pages = {389--404},
}

@article{qian_observed_2010,
	title = {Observed {Long}-{Term} {Trends} for {Agroclimatic} {Conditions} in {Canada}},
	volume = {49},
	issn = {1558-8424, 1558-8432},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/49/4/2009jamc2275.1.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/2009JAMC2275.1},
	abstract = {{\textless}section class="abstract"{\textgreater}{\textless}h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d46601001e91"{\textgreater}Abstract{\textless}/h2{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}A set of agroclimatic indices representing Canadian climatic conditions for field crop production are analyzed for long-term trends during 1895–2007. The indices are categorized for three crop types: cool season, warm season, and overwintering. Results indicate a significant lengthening of the growing season due to a significantly earlier start and a significantly later end of the growing season. Significant positive trends are also observed for effective growing degree-days and crop heat units at most locations across the country. The occurrence of extremely low temperatures has become less frequent during the nongrowing season, implying a more favorable climate for overwinter survival. In addition, the total numbers of cool days, frost days, and killing-frost days within a growing season have a decreasing trend. This means that crops may also be less vulnerable to cold stress and injury during the growing season. Extreme daily precipitation amounts and 10-day precipitation totals during the growing season have been increasing. Significant trends associated with increased availability of water during the growing season are identified by the standardized precipitation index and seasonal water deficits. The benefit of the increased precipitation may have been offset by an upward trend in evaporative demand; however, this would depend on the amount of growth and productivity resulting from increased actual evapotranspiration.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}/section{\textgreater}},
	language = {EN},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2021-08-02},
	journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	author = {Qian, Budong and Zhang, Xuebin and Chen, Kai and Feng, Yang and O’Brien, Ted},
	month = apr,
	year = {2010},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	pages = {604--618},
}

@article{bootsma_impacts_2005,
	title = {Impacts of potential climate change on selected agroclimatic indices in {Atlantic} {Canada}},
	volume = {85},
	issn = {0008-4271, 1918-1841},
	url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.4141/S04-019},
	doi = {10.4141/S04-019},
	abstract = {Bootsma, A., Gameda, S. and McKenney, D. W. 2005. Impacts of potential climate change on selected agroclimatic indices in Atlantic Canada. Can. J. Soil Sci. 85: 329–343. Agroclimatic indices (heat units and water deficits) were determined for the Atlantic region of Canada for a baseline climate (1961 to 1990 period) and for two future time periods (2010 to 2039 and 2040 to 2069). Climate scenarios for the future periods were primarily based on outputs from the Canadian General Circulation Model (GCM) that included the effects of aerosols (CGCMI-A), but variability introduced by multiple GCM experiments was also examined. Climatic data for all three periods were interpolated to a grid of about 10 to 15 km. Agroclimatic indices were computed and mapped based on the gridded data. Based on CGCMI-A scenarios interpolated to the fine grid, average crop heat units (CHU) would increase by 300 to 500 CHU for the 2010 to 2039 period and by 500 to 700 CHU for the 2040 to 2069 period in the main agricultural areas of the Atlantic region. However, increases in CHU for the 2040 to 2069 period typically varied from 450 to 1650 units in these regions when variability among GCM experiments was considered, resulting in a projected range of 2650 to 4000 available CHU. Effective growing degree-days above 5°C (EGDD) typically increased by about 400 units for the 2040 to 2069 period in the main agricultural areas, resulting in available EGDD from 1800 to over 2000 units. Uncertainty introduced by multiple GCMs increased the range from 1700 to 2700 EGDD. A decrease in heat units (cooling) is anticipated along part of the coast of Labrador. Anticipated changes in water deficits (DEFICIT), defined as the amount by which potential evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation over the growing season, typically ranged from +50 to –50 mm for both periods, but this range widened from +50 to –100 mm when variability among GCM experiments was considered. The greatest increases in deficits were expected in the central region of New Brunswick for the 2040 to 2069 period. Our interpolation procedures estimated mean winter and summer temperature changes that were 1.4°C on average lower than a statistical downscaling procedure (SDSM) for four locations. Increases in precipitation during summer and autumn averaged 20\% less than SDSM. During periods when SDSM estimated relatively small changes in temperature or precipitation, our interpolation procedure tended to produce changes that were larger than SDSM. Additional investigations would be beneficial that explore the impact of a range of scenarios from other GCM models, other downscaling methods and the potential effects of change in climate variability on these agroclimatic indices. Potential impacts of these changes on crop yields and production in the region also need to be explored.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	journal = {Canadian Journal of Soil Science},
	author = {Bootsma, A. and Gameda {and} D.W. McKenney, S.},
	month = may,
	year = {2005},
	pages = {329--343},
}

@article{kenny_assessment_1992,
	title = {An assessment of a latitude-temperature index for predicting climate suitability for grapes in {Europe}},
	volume = {67},
	issn = {0022-1589},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00221589.1992.11516243},
	doi = {10.1080/00221589.1992.11516243},
	abstract = {The climatic suitability of wine grape classes in Europe was mapped using a latitude- temperature index. It was found necessary to superimpose a constraint based on a minimum temperature of the coldest month of —3°C to exclude those areas where winters are too severe for vine survival. The index, combined with this constraint, proved a useful indicator of current climatic potential of wine grapes. A sensitivity analysis, using arbitrary adjustments to temperature, suggested that even a 1°C warming could lead to a significant expansion in potential of viticulture. More critical examination, using GCM projections of global warming, and more site or region specific studies are recommended.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2021-06-16},
	journal = {Journal of Horticultural Science},
	author = {Kenny, G. J. and Shao, J.},
	month = jan,
	year = {1992},
	note = {Publisher: Taylor \& Francis
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/00221589.1992.11516243},
	pages = {239--246},
}

@unpublished{gregory_cf_2003,
	address = {Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, and Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK},
	type = {Proposal},
	title = {The {CF} {Metadata} {Standard}},
	url = {http://cfconventions.org/Data/cf-documents/overview/article.pdf},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2019-07-03},
	author = {Gregory, Jonathan},
	month = nov,
	year = {2003},
}

@techreport{eaton_netcdf_nodate,
	title = {{NetCDF} {Climate} and {Forecast} ({CF}) {Metadata} {Conventions}},
	url = {http://cfconventions.org/Data/cf-conventions/cf-conventions-1.7/cf-conventions.pdf},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2019-07-03},
	author = {Eaton, Brian and Gregory, Jonathan and Drach, Bob and Taylor, Karl and Hankin, Steve and Blower, Jon and Caron, John and Signell, Rich and Bentley, Phil and Rappa, Greg and Höck, Heinke and Pamment, Alison and Juckes, Martin and Raspaud, Martin},
	pages = {156},
}

@misc{environment_and_climate_change_canada_about_nodate,
	title = {About — {Climate} {Data} {Canada}},
	url = {https://climatedata.ca/about/},
	urldate = {2019-07-02},
	author = {{Environment and Climate Change Canada}},
}

@article{casati_regional_2013,
	title = {Regional {Climate} {Projections} of {Extreme} {Heat} {Events} in {Nine} {Pilot} {Canadian} {Communities} for {Public} {Health} {Planning}},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {1558-8424},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0341.1},
	doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0341.1},
	abstract = {Public health planning needs the support of evidence-based information on current and future climate, which could be used by health professionals and decision makers to better understand and respond to the health impacts of extreme heat. Climate models provide information regarding the expected increase in temperatures and extreme heat events with climate change and can help predict the severity of future health impacts, which can be used in the public health sector for the development of adaptation strategies to reduce heat-related morbidity and mortality. This study analyzes the evolution of extreme temperature indices specifically defined to characterize heat events associated with health risks, in the context of a changing climate. The analysis is performed by using temperature projections from the Canadian Regional Climate Model. A quantile-based statistical correction is applied to the projected temperatures, in order to reduce model biases and account for the representativeness error. Moreover, generalized Pareto distributions are used to extend the temperature distribution upper tails and extrapolate the statistical correction to extremes that are not observed in the present but that might occur in the future. The largest increase in extreme daytime temperatures occurs in southern Manitoba, Canada, where the already overly dry climate and lack of soil moisture can lead to an uncontrolled enhancement of hot extremes. The occurrence of warm nights and heat waves, on the other hand, is already large and will increase substantially in the communities of the Great Lakes region, characterized by a humid climate. Impact and adaptation studies need to account for the temperature variability due to local effects, since it can be considerably larger than the model natural variability.},
	language = {en},
	number = {12},
	urldate = {2019-07-02},
	journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	author = {Casati, Barbara and Yagouti, Abderrahmane and Chaumont, Diane},
	month = jul,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {2669--2698},
}

@article{beniston_trends_2009,
	title = {Trends in joint quantiles of temperature and precipitation in {Europe} since 1901 and projected for 2100},
	volume = {36},
	copyright = {Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.},
	issn = {1944-8007},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2008GL037119},
	doi = {10.1029/2008GL037119},
	abstract = {This study assesses the changes in the exceedances of joint extremes of temperature and precipitation quantiles for a number of sites in Europe. The combination of cool/dry, cool/wet, warm/dry and warm/wet modes reveals a systematic change at all locations investigated in the course of the 20th century, with significant declines in the frequency of occurrence of the “cold” modes and a sharp rise in that of the “warm” modes. The changing behavior of these four modes is also accompanied by changes in the particular conditions of temperature and precipitation associated with each mode; for example, the average amount of precipitation during cool/wet events decreases while that during warm/wet events increases, even though mean precipitation at most locations shows no significant trend. In a “greenhouse climate”, the “cool” modes are almost totally absent by 2100 whereas the warm/dry and warm/wet modes pursue the progression already observed in the 20th century.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2019-07-02},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Beniston, Martin},
	year = {2009},
	keywords = {climate extremes, quantiles},
}

@misc{dask_development_team_dask:_2016,
	title = {Dask: {Library} for dynamic task scheduling},
	url = {https://dask.org},
	author = {{Dask Development Team}},
	year = {2016},
}

@article{hoyer_xarray:_2017,
	title = {xarray: {N}-{D} labeled {Arrays} and {Datasets} in {Python}},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2049-9647},
	shorttitle = {xarray},
	url = {https://openresearchsoftware.metajnl.com/articles/10.5334/jors.148/},
	doi = {10.5334/jors.148},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	journal = {Journal of Open Research Software},
	author = {Hoyer, Stephan and Hamman, Joseph J.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {10},
}

@techreport{project_team_eca&d_algorithm_2013,
	address = {De Bilt, Netherlands},
	type = {Project {Description}},
	title = {Algorithm {Theoretical} {Basis} {Document} ({ATBD})},
	language = {en},
	number = {EPJ029135},
	institution = {Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI},
	author = {{Project team ECA\&D} and {KNMI}},
	month = sep,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {46},
}

@article{rizzo_energy_2016,
	title = {Energy distance},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1939-0068},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wics.1375},
	doi = {10.1002/wics.1375},
	abstract = {Energy distance is a metric that measures the distance between the distributions of random vectors. Energy distance is zero if and only if the distributions are identical, thus it characterizes equality of distributions and provides a theoretical foundation for statistical inference and analysis. Energy statistics are functions of distances between observations in metric spaces. As a statistic, energy distance can be applied to measure the difference between a sample and a hypothesized distribution or the difference between two or more samples in arbitrary, not necessarily equal dimensions. The name energy is inspired by the close analogy with Newton's gravitational potential energy. Applications include testing independence by distance covariance, goodness-of-fit, nonparametric tests for equality of distributions and extension of analysis of variance, generalizations of clustering algorithms, change point analysis, feature selection, and more. WIREs Comput Stat 2016, 8:27–38. doi: 10.1002/wics.1375 This article is categorized under: Statistical and Graphical Methods of Data Analysis {\textgreater} Multivariate Analysis Statistical and Graphical Methods of Data Analysis {\textgreater} Nonparametric Methods},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-07-15},
	journal = {WIREs Computational Statistics},
	author = {Rizzo, Maria L. and Székely, Gábor J.},
	year = {2016},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wics.1375},
	keywords = {DISCO, distance correlation, goodness-of-fit, independence, Multivariate},
	pages = {27--38},
}

@article{szekely_testing_2004,
	title = {Testing for equal distributions in high dimension},
	volume = {5},
	abstract = {We propose a new nonparametric test for equality of two or more multivariate distributions based on Euclidean distance between sample elements. Several consistent tests for comparing multivariate distribu-tions can be developed from the underlying theoretical results. The test procedure for the multisample problem is developed and applied for testing the composite hypothesis of equal distributions, when dis-tributions are unspecified. The proposed test is universally consistent against all fixed alternatives (not necessarily continuous) with finite second moments. The test is implemented by conditioning on the pooled sample to obtain an approximate permutation test, which is distribution free. Our Monte Carlo power study suggests that the new test may be much more sensitive than tests based on nearest neighbors against several classes of alternatives, and performs particularly well in high dimension. Computational complexity of our test procedure is independent of dimension and number of populations sampled. The test is applied in a high dimensional problem, testing microarray data from cancer samples.},
	journal = {InterStat},
	author = {Szekely, Gabor and Rizzo, Maria},
	month = nov,
	year = {2004},
}

@book{audet_atlas_2012,
	address = {Québec},
	title = {Atlas agroclimatique du {Québec}. Évaluation des opportunités et des risques agroclimatiques dans un climat en évolution.},
	isbn = {978-2-89146-817-6},
	url = {https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/2406/},
	language = {fr},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	publisher = {INRS, Centre Eau, Terre et Environnement},
	author = {Audet, René and Côté, Hélène and Bachand, Denise and Mailhot, Alain},
	month = jun,
	year = {2012},
	note = {Issue: R1518
Number: R1518},
}

@misc{xu_anuclim_2010,
	title = {{ANUCLIM} {Version} 6.1 {User} {Guide}},
	url = {https://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/files/anuclim61.pdf},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	publisher = {The Australian National University},
	author = {Xu, Tingbao and Hutchinson, Michael},
	year = {2010},
}

@article{mekis_observed_2015,
	title = {Observed {Trends} in {Severe} {Weather} {Conditions} {Based} on {Humidex}, {Wind} {Chill}, and {Heavy} {Rainfall} {Events} in {Canada} for 1953–2012},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {0705-5900, 1480-9214},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07055900.2015.1086970},
	doi = {10.1080/07055900.2015.1086970},
	abstract = {Observed trends in severe weather conditions based on public alert statements issued by Environment Canada are examined for Canada. Changes in extreme heat and extreme cold events represented by various humidex and wind chill indices are analyzed for 1953–2012 at 126 climatological stations. Changes in heavy rainfall events based on rainfall amounts provided by tipping bucket rainfall gauges are analyzed for 1960–2012 at 285 stations. The results show that extreme heat events, defined as days with at least one hourly humidex value above 30, have increased significantly at more than 36\% of the stations, most of which are located south of 55°N; days with nighttime hourly humidex values remaining above 20 have increased significantly at more than 52\% of the stations, most of which are located south of 50°N. Extreme cold events represented by days with at least one hourly wind chill value below −30 have decreased significantly at more than 76\% of the stations across the country. No consistent changes were found in heavy rainfall events. Because city residents are very vulnerable to severe weather events, detailed results on changes in extreme heat, extreme cold, and heavy rainfall events are also provided for ten urban centres.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	journal = {Atmosphere-Ocean},
	author = {Mekis, Éva and Vincent, Lucie A. and Shephard, Mark W. and Zhang, Xuebin},
	month = aug,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {383--397},
}

@article{osczevski_new_2005,
	title = {The {New} {Wind} {Chill} {Equivalent} {Temperature} {Chart}},
	volume = {86},
	issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/86/10/bams-86-10-1453.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/BAMS-86-10-1453},
	abstract = {The formula used in the U.S. and Canada to express the combined effect of wind and low temperature on how cold it feels was changed in November 2001. Many had felt that the old formula for equivalent temperature, derived in the 1960s from Siple and Passel's flawed but quite useful Wind Chill Index, unnecessarily exaggerated the severity of the weather. The new formula is based on a mathematical model of heat flow from the upwind side of a head-sized cylinder moving at walking speed into the wind. The paper details the assumptions that were made in generating the new wind chill charts. It also points out weaknesses in the concept of wind chill equivalent temperature, including its steady-state character and a seemingly paradoxical effect of the internal thermal resistance of the cylinder on comfort and equivalent temperature. Some improvements and alternatives are suggested.},
	language = {en},
	number = {10},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
	author = {Osczevski, Randall and Bluestein, Maurice},
	month = oct,
	year = {2005},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
	pages = {1453--1458},
}

@misc{us_department_of_commerce_wind_nodate,
	title = {Wind {Chill} {Questions}},
	copyright = {https://www.weather.gov/disclaimer},
	url = {https://www.weather.gov/safety/cold-faqs},
	abstract = {Wind Chill Questions},
	language = {EN-US},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	author = {US Department of Commerce, NOAA},
	note = {Publisher: NOAA's National Weather Service},
}

@article{clausius_ueber_1850,
	title = {Ueber die bewegende {Kraft} der {Wärme} und die {Gesetze}, welche sich daraus für die {Wärmelehre} selbst ableiten lassen},
	volume = {155},
	issn = {1521-3889},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/andp.18501550403},
	doi = {10.1002/andp.18501550403},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Annalen der Physik},
	author = {Clausius, R.},
	year = {1850},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/andp.18501550403},
	pages = {500--524},
}

@article{baier_estimation_1965,
	title = {Estimation of latent evaporation from simple weather observations},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {0008-4220},
	url = {https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/abs/10.4141/cjps65-051},
	doi = {10.4141/cjps65-051},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Canadian Journal of Plant Science},
	author = {Baier, W. and Robertson, Geo. W.},
	month = may,
	year = {1965},
	note = {Publisher: NRC Research Press},
	pages = {276--284},
}

@article{george_h_hargreaves_reference_1985,
	title = {Reference {Crop} {Evapotranspiration} from {Temperature}},
	volume = {1},
	issn = {0883-8542},
	doi = {10.13031/2013.26773},
	abstract = {MEASURED lysimeter evapotranspiration of Alta fescue grass (a cool season grass) is taken as an index of reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo). An equation is presented that estimates ETo from measured values of daily or mean values of maximum and minimum temperature. This equation is compared with various other methods for estimating ETo. The equation was developed using eight years of daily lysimeter data from Davis, California and used to estimate values of ETo for other locations. Comparisons with other methods with measured cool season grass evapotranspiration at Aspendale, Australia; Lompoc, California; and Seabrook, New Jersey; with lysimeter data from Damin, Haiti; and with the modified Penman for various locations in Bangladesh indicated that the method usually does not require local calibration and that the estimated values are probably as reliable and useable as those from the other estimating methods used for comparison. Considering the scarcity of complete and reliable climatic data for estimating crop water requirements in developing countries, this proposed method can do much to improve irrigation planning design and scheduling in the developing countries.},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Applied engineering in agriculture},
	author = {{George H. Hargreaves} and {Zohrab A. Samani}},
	year = {1985},
	note = {PubAg AGID: 5662005},
	keywords = {Australia, Bangladesh, California, cool season grasses, developing countries, equations, evapotranspiration, Festuca, Haiti, irrigation, lysimeters, New Jersey, planning, temperature},
	pages = {96--99},
}

@article{tanguy_historical_2018,
	title = {Historical gridded reconstruction of potential evapotranspiration for the {UK}},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {1866-3508},
	url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/10/951/2018/},
	doi = {10.5194/essd-10-951-2018},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a necessary input data for most hydrological models and is often needed at a daily time step. An accurate estimation of PET requires many input climate variables which are, in most cases, not available prior to the 1960s for the UK, nor indeed most parts of the world. Therefore, when applying hydrological models to earlier periods, modellers have to rely on PET estimations derived from simplified methods. Given that only monthly observed temperature data is readily available for the late 19th and early 20th century at a national scale for the UK, the objective of this work was to derive the best possible UK-wide gridded PET dataset from the limited data available.{\textless}/p{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}To that end, firstly, a combination of (i) seven temperature-based PET equations, (ii) four different calibration approaches and (iii) seven input temperature data were evaluated. For this evaluation, a gridded daily PET product based on the physically based Penman–Monteith equation (the CHESS PET dataset) was used, the rationale being that this provides a reliable “ground truth” PET dataset for evaluation purposes, given that no directly observed, distributed PET datasets exist. The performance of the models was also compared to a “naïve method”, which is defined as the simplest possible estimation of PET in the absence of any available climate data. The “naïve method” used in this study is the CHESS PET daily long-term average (the period from 1961 to 1990 was chosen), or CHESS-PET daily climatology.{\textless}/p{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}The analysis revealed that the type of calibration and the input temperature dataset had only a minor effect on the accuracy of the PET estimations at catchment scale. From the seven equations tested, only the calibrated version of the McGuinness–Bordne equation was able to outperform the “naïve method” and was therefore used to derive the gridded, reconstructed dataset. The equation was calibrated using 43 catchments across Great Britain.{\textless}/p{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}The dataset produced is a 5\&thinsp;km gridded PET dataset for the period 1891 to 2015, using the Met Office 5\&thinsp;km monthly gridded temperature data available for that time period as input data for the PET equation. The dataset includes daily and monthly PET grids and is complemented with a suite of mapped performance metrics to help users assess the quality of the data spatially.{\textless}/p{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}This dataset is expected to be particularly valuable as input to hydrological models for any catchment in the UK.{\textless}/p{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}The data can be accessed at {\textless}a href="https://doi.org/10.5285/17b9c4f7-1c30-4b6f-b2fe-f7780159939c"{\textgreater}https://doi.org/10.5285/17b9c4f7-1c30-4b6f-b2fe-f7780159939c{\textless}/a{\textgreater}.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Earth System Science Data},
	author = {Tanguy, Maliko and Prudhomme, Christel and Smith, Katie and Hannaford, Jamie},
	month = jun,
	year = {2018},
	note = {Publisher: Copernicus GmbH},
	pages = {951--968},
}

@techreport{mcguinness_comparison_1972,
	title = {A {Comparison} of {Lysimeter}-{Derived} {Potential} {Evapotranspiration} {With} {Computed} {Values}},
	url = {https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerstb/171893.html},
	abstract = {No abstract is available for this item.},
	language = {en},
	number = {171893},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	institution = {United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service},
	author = {McGuinness, J. L. and Borone, Erich F.},
	year = {1972},
	note = {Publication Title: Technical Bulletins},
	keywords = {Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics},
}

@article{thornthwaite_approach_1948,
	title = {An {Approach} toward a {Rational} {Classification} of {Climate}},
	volume = {38},
	issn = {0016-7428},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/210739},
	doi = {10.2307/210739},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2023-01-31},
	journal = {Geographical Review},
	author = {Thornthwaite, C. W.},
	year = {1948},
	note = {Publisher: [American Geographical Society, Wiley]},
	pages = {55--94},
}

@misc{brode_utci_2009,
	title = {{UTCI}},
	copyright = {MIT License},
	url = {http://www.utci.org/public/UTCI%20Program%20Code/UTCI_a002.f90},
	abstract = {Program for calculating UTCI Temperature (UTCI) released for public use after termination of COST Action 730},
	author = {Bröde, Peter},
	month = oct,
	year = {2009},
}

@article{blazejczyk_introduction_2013,
	title = {An introduction to the {Universal} {Thermal} {Climate} {Index} ({UTCI})},
	volume = {86},
	url = {https://repository.lboro.ac.uk/articles/journal_contribution/An_introduction_to_the_Universal_Thermal_Climate_Index_UTCI_/9347024/1},
	doi = {10.7163/GPol.2013.1},
	abstract = {The assessment of the thermal environment is one ofthe main issues in bioclimatic research, and more than 100 simple bioclimatic indices have thus far been developed to facilitate it. However, most of these indices have proved to be of limited applicability, and do not portroy the actual impacts of thermal conditions on human beings. Indices derived from human heatbalance models (one- or two-node) have been found to offer a better representation of the environmental impact in question than do simple ones. Indeed, the new generation of multi-node models for human heat balance do allow full account to be taken of heat transfer and exchange, both within the human body and between the body surface and the surrounding air layer. In this paper, it is essential background information regarding the newly-developed Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI that is presented, this in fact deriving from the Fiala multi-node model of human heatbalance. The UTCI is defined as the air temperature (Ta) of the reference condition causing the same model response as actual conditions. UTCI was developed in 2009 by virtue of international co-operation between leading experts in the areas of human thermophysiology, physiological modelling, meteorology and climatology. The necessary research for this had been conducted within the framework of a special commission of the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and European COST Action 730.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Geographica Polonica},
	author = {Błażejczyk, Krzysztof and Jendritzky, Gerd and Bröde, Peter and Fiala, Dusan and Havenith, George and Epstein, Yoram and Psikuta, Agnes and Kampmann, Bernhardt},
	month = jan,
	year = {2013},
	note = {Publisher: Loughborough University},
	pages = {5--10},
}

@article{liljegren_modeling_2008,
	title = {Modeling the wet bulb globe temperature using standard meteorological measurements},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {1545-9632},
	doi = {10.1080/15459620802310770},
	abstract = {The U.S. Army has a need for continuous, accurate estimates of the wet bulb globe temperature to protect soldiers and civilian workers from heat-related injuries, including those involved in the storage and destruction of aging chemical munitions at depots across the United States. At these depots, workers must don protective clothing that increases their risk of heat-related injury. Because of the difficulty in making continuous, accurate measurements of wet bulb globe temperature outdoors, the authors have developed a model of the wet bulb globe temperature that relies only on standard meteorological data available at each storage depot for input. The model is composed of separate submodels of the natural wet bulb and globe temperatures that are based on fundamental principles of heat and mass transfer, has no site-dependent parameters, and achieves an accuracy of better than 1 degree C based on comparisons with wet bulb globe temperature measurements at all depots.},
	language = {eng},
	number = {10},
	journal = {Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene},
	author = {Liljegren, James C. and Carhart, Richard A. and Lawday, Philip and Tschopp, Stephen and Sharp, Robert},
	month = oct,
	year = {2008},
	pmid = {18668404},
	keywords = {Data Collection, Environmental Monitoring, Heat Stress Disorders, Hot Temperature, Humans, Occupational Diseases, Occupational Exposure, Protective Clothing, United States, Weather},
	pages = {645--655},
}

@article{kong_explicit_2022,
	title = {Explicit {Calculations} of {Wet}-{Bulb} {Globe} {Temperature} {Compared} {With} {Approximations} and {Why} {It} {Matters} for {Labor} {Productivity}},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {2328-4277},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021EF002334},
	doi = {10.1029/2021EF002334},
	abstract = {Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a widely applied heat stress index. However, most applications of WBGT within the heat stress impact literature that do not use WBGT at all, but use one of the ad hoc approximations, typically the simplified WBGT (sWBGT) or the environmental stress index (ESI). Surprisingly, little is known about how well these approximations work for the global climate and climate change settings that they are being applied to. Here, we assess the bias distribution as a function of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and radiative conditions of both sWBGT and ESI relative to a well-validated, explicit physical model for WBGT developed by Liljegren, within an idealized context and the more realistic setting of ERA5 reanalysis data. sWBGT greatly overestimates heat stress in hot-humid areas. ESI has much smaller biases in the range of standard climatological conditions. Over subtropical dry regions, both metrics can substantially underestimate extreme heat. We show systematic overestimation of labor loss by sWBGT over much of the world today. We recommend discontinuing the use of sWBGT. ESI may be acceptable for assessing average heat stress or integrated impact over a long period like a year, but less suitable for health applications, extreme heat stress analysis, or as an operational index for heat warning, heatwave forecasting, or guiding activity modification at the workplace. Nevertheless, Liljegren's approach should be preferred over these ad hoc approximations and we provide a fast Python implementation to encourage its widespread use.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Earth's Future},
	author = {Kong, Qinqin and Huber, Matthew},
	year = {2022},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2021EF002334},
	keywords = {bias assessment, environmental stress index, heat stress, labor productivity, simplified wet-bulb globe temperature, wet-bulb globe temperature},
	pages = {e2021EF002334},
}

@article{di_napoli_mean_2020,
	title = {Mean radiant temperature from global-scale numerical weather prediction models},
	volume = {64},
	issn = {1432-1254},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01900-5},
	doi = {10.1007/s00484-020-01900-5},
	abstract = {In human biometeorology, the estimation of mean radiant temperature (MRT) is generally considered challenging. This work presents a general framework to compute the MRT at the global scale for a human subject placed in an outdoor environment and irradiated by solar and thermal radiation both directly and diffusely. The proposed framework requires as input radiation fluxes computed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and generates as output gridded globe-wide maps of MRT. It also considers changes in the Sun’s position affecting radiation components when these are stored by NWP models as an accumulated-over-time quantity. The applicability of the framework was demonstrated using NWP reanalysis radiation data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Mapped distributions of MRT were correspondingly computed at the global scale. Comparison against measurements from radiation monitoring stations showed a good agreement with NWP-based MRT (coefficient of determination greater than 0.88; average bias equal to 0.42 °C) suggesting its potential as a proxy for observations in application studies.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
	author = {Di Napoli, Claudia and Hogan, Robin J. and Pappenberger, Florian},
	month = jul,
	year = {2020},
	keywords = {Human comfort, Mean radiant temperature, Numerical weather prediction, Radiation, Validation},
	pages = {1233--1245},
}

@misc{brimicombe_thermofeel_2021,
	title = {thermofeel: a python thermal comfort indices library},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.21957/mp6v-fd16},
	publisher = {ECMWF},
	author = {Brimicombe, C. and Di Napoli, C., C. and Quintino, T. and Pappenberger, F. and Cornforth, R. and Cloke, H.},
	month = jul,
	year = {2021},
}

@article{baker_new_2004,
	title = {A {New} {Flashiness} {Index}: {Characteristics} and {Applications} to {Midwestern} {Rivers} and {Streams1}},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {1752-1688},
	shorttitle = {A {New} {Flashiness} {Index}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2004.tb01046.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1752-1688.2004.tb01046.x},
	abstract = {ABSTRACT: The term flashiness reflects the frequency and rapidity of short term changes in streamflow, especially during runoff events. Flashiness is an important component of a stream's hydrologic regime. A variety of land use and land management changes may lead to increased or decreased flashiness, often to the detriment of aquatic life. This paper presents a newly developed flashiness index, which is based on mean daily flows. The index is calculated by dividing the pathlength of flow oscillations for a time interval (i.e., the sum of the absolute values of day-to-day changes in mean daily flow) by total discharge during that time interval. This index has low interannual variability, relative to most flow regime indicators, and thus greater power to detect trends. Index values were calculated for 515 Midwestern streams for the 27-year period from 1975 through 2001. Statistically significant increases were present in 22 percent of the streams, primarily in the eastern portion of the study area, while decreases were present in 9 percent, primarily in the western portion. Index values tend to decrease with increasing watershed area and with increasing unit area ground water inputs. Area compensated index values often shift at ecoregion boundaries. Potential index applications include evaluation of programs to restore more natural flow regimes.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association},
	author = {Baker, David B. and Richards, R. Peter and Loftus, Timothy T. and Kramer, Jack W.},
	year = {2004},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2004.tb01046.x},
	keywords = {agricultural hydrology, flashiness index, Indicators of Hydrological Alteration, stormwater management, stream flashiness, surface water hydrology, watershed management},
	pages = {503--522},
}

@article{robinson_definition_2001,
	title = {On the {Definition} of a {Heat} {Wave}},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {1520-0450, 0894-8763},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/40/4/1520-0450_2001_040_0762_otdoah_2.0.co_2.xml},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450%282001%29040<0762:OTDOAH>2.0.CO;2},
	abstract = {Abstract Heat waves are a major cause of weather-related deaths. With the current concern for global warming it is reasonable to suppose that they may increase in frequency, severity, duration, or areal extent in the future. However, in the absence of an adequate definition of a heat wave, it is impossible to assess either changes in the past or possible consequences for the future. A set of definitions is proposed here, based on the criteria for heat stress forecasts developed by the National Weather Service (NWS). Watches or warnings are issued when thresholds of daytime high and nighttime low heat index (Hi) values are exceeded for at least two consecutive days. The heat index is a combination of ambient temperature and humidity that approximates the environmental aspect of the thermal regime of a human body, with the NWS thresholds representing a generalized estimate of the onset of physiological stress. These thresholds cannot be applied directly nationwide. In hot and humid regions, physical, social, and cultural adaptations will require that the thresholds be set higher to ensure that only those events perceived as stressful are identified. In other, cooler, areas the NWS criteria may never be reached even though unusually hot events may be perceived as heat waves. Thus, it is likely that a similar number of perceived heat events will occur in all regions, with the thresholds varying regionally. Hourly Hi for 178 stations in the coterminous United States was analyzed for the 1951–90 period to determine appropriate threshold criteria. Use of the NWS criteria alone indicated that much of the nation had less than three heat waves per decade, and this value was adopted as the baseline against which to establish suitable thresholds. For all areas, a percentile threshold approach was tested. Using all available data, daytime high and nighttime low thresholds were established separately for each specific percentile. Heat waves were treated as occurring when conditions exceeded both the daytime high and the nighttime low thresholds of the same percentile for two consecutive days. Several thresholds were tested. For much of the South, 1\% thresholds produced appropriate values. Consequently, a heat wave was defined as a period of at least 48 h during which neither the overnight low nor the daytime high Hi falls below the NWS heat stress thresholds (80° and 105°F, respectively), except at stations for which more than 1\% of both the annual high and low Hi observations exceed these thresholds, in which case the 1\% values are used as the heat wave thresholds. As an extension, “hot spells” were similarly defined, but for events falling between the 1\% values and NWS thresholds, with “warm spells” occurring between the 2\% and 1\% values. Again, stations for which the 1\% or 2\% Hi values exceed the NWS thresholds were given modified definitions. The preliminary investigation of the timing and location of heat waves resulting from these definitions indicated that they correctly identified major epidemiological events. A tentative climatic comparison also suggests that heat waves are becoming less frequent in the southern and more frequent in the midwestern and eastern parts of the nation.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	author = {Robinson, Peter J.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2001},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	pages = {762--775},
}

@article{alexander_global_2006,
	title = {Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation},
	volume = {111},
	issn = {2156-2202},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2005JD006290},
	doi = {10.1029/2005JD006290},
	abstract = {A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951–2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70\% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with near-complete data for 1901–2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901–1950, 1951–1978 and 1979–2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.},
	language = {en},
	number = {D5},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
	author = {Alexander, L. V. and Zhang, X. and Peterson, T. C. and Caesar, J. and Gleason, B. and Klein Tank, A. M. G. and Haylock, M. and Collins, D. and Trewin, B. and Rahimzadeh, F. and Tagipour, A. and Rupa Kumar, K. and Revadekar, J. and Griffiths, G. and Vincent, L. and Stephenson, D. B. and Burn, J. and Aguilar, E. and Brunet, M. and Taylor, M. and New, M. and Zhai, P. and Rusticucci, M. and Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L.},
	year = {2006},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2005JD006290},
	keywords = {climate extremes, observations, precipitation, temperature, trends},
}

@article{woollings_variability_2010,
	title = {Variability of the {North} {Atlantic} eddy-driven jet stream},
	volume = {136},
	issn = {1477-870X},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.625},
	doi = {10.1002/qj.625},
	abstract = {Much of the atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is associated with variations in the eddy-driven component of the zonal flow. Here we present a simple method to specifically diagnose this component of the flow using the low-level wind field (925–700 hpa ). We focus on the North Atlantic winter season in the ERA-40 reanalysis. Diagnostics of the latitude and speed of the eddy-driven jet stream are compared with conventional diagnostics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. This shows that the NAO and the EA both describe combined changes in the latitude and speed of the jet stream. It is therefore necessary, but not always sufficient, to consider both the NAO and the EA in identifying changes in the jet stream. The jet stream analysis suggests that there are three preferred latitudinal positions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in winter. This result is in very good agreement with the application of a statistical mixture model to the two-dimensional state space defined by the NAO and the EA. These results are consistent with several other studies which identify four European/Atlantic regimes, comprising three jet stream patterns plus European blocking events. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society},
	language = {en},
	number = {649},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
	author = {Woollings, Tim and Hannachi, Abdel and Hoskins, Brian},
	year = {2010},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.625},
	keywords = {East Atlantic pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation, weather regimes},
	pages = {856--868},
}

@techreport{chaumont_elaboration_2017,
	address = {Montreal, Quebec},
	type = {Rapport présenté au {Ministère} de la forêt, de la faune et des parcs},
	title = {Élaboration du portrait bioclimatique futur du {Nunavik} – {Tome} {II}},
	url = {https://mffp.gouv.qc.ca/documents/forets/inventaire/Portrait_bioclimatique_Nunavik_Tome_2.pdf},
	language = {fr},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	institution = {MFFP},
	author = {Chaumont, Diane and Mailhot, Alain and Diaconescu, Emilia P. and Fournier, Élyse and Logan, Travis},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {215},
}


@techreport{cbcl_climate_2020,
	address = {Ottawa, Ontario},
	title = {Climate {Projections} for the {National} {Capital} {Region}, {Volume} 1: {Results} and {Interpretation} for {Key} {Climate} {Indices}},
	language = {en},
	number = {193600.00},
	institution = {CBCL},
	author = {{CBCL}},
	year = {2020},
}

@article{matthews_planning_2017,
	title = {Planning for {Winter} {Road} {Maintenance} in the {Context} of {Climate} {Change}},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1948-8327, 1948-8335},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/9/3/wcas-d-16-0103_1.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0103.1},
	abstract = {Abstract Winter weather creates mobility challenges for most northern jurisdictions, leading to significant expenditures on winter road maintenance (WRM) activities. While the science and practice of snow and ice control is continually evolving, climate change presents particular challenges for the strategic planning of WRM. The purpose of this study is 1) to develop a winter severity index (WSI) to better understand how winter weather translates into interannual variations in WRM activities and 2) to apply the WSI to future climate change projections to assist a northern community in preparing for climate change. A new method for creating a WSI model is explored, using readily available data from maintenance records and meteorological stations. The WSI is created by optimizing values for three levels of snowfall as well as potential icing events and is shown to have high predictive accuracy for WRM (coefficient of determination R2 of 0.93). The WSI is then applied to historic and future climate data in a municipality located in central British Columbia, Canada. Findings reveal that much of the variability in WRM can be attributed to weather. The results of the climate change analysis show that winter precipitation in the region is expected to increase by 5.2\%–12.3\%, and winter average temperatures are projected to increase by 1.5°–2.8°C in the 2050s, compared to the 1976–2000 baseline based on 65 GCMs. Based on the midrange (25th to 75th percentiles) of the 65 GCM projections, annual demand for WRM activities is estimated to decrease by 13.0\%–22.0\%.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
	author = {Matthews, Lindsay and Andrey, Jean and Picketts, Ian},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Weather, Climate, and Society},
	pages = {521--532},
}

@misc{nsidc_frequently_2008,
	title = {Frequently {Asked} {Questions} on {Arctic} sea ice},
	url = {https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq/},
	language = {en-US},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis},
	author = {{NSIDC}},
	month = jun,
	year = {2008},
}

@misc{cantin_canadian_2014,
	title = {Canadian {Forest} {Fire} {Danger} {Rating} {System} ({CFFDRS})},
	copyright = {GPL v2},
	url = {https://r-forge.r-project.org/projects/cffdrs/},
	author = {Cantin, Alan and Wang, Xianli and Parisien, Marc-André and Wotton, Mike and Anderson, Kerry and Moore, Brett and Schiks, Tom and Flannigan, Mike},
	year = {2014},
}

@techreport{wang_updated_2015,
	address = {Northern Forestry Centre},
	type = {Information {Report}},
	title = {Updated source code for calculating fire danger indices in the {Canadian} {Forest} {Fire} {Weather} {Index} {System}.},
	url = {https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=36461},
	language = {English},
	number = {NOR-X-424},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	institution = {Canadian Forest Service},
	author = {Wang, Y. and Anderson, K. R. and Suddaby, R. M.},
	year = {2015},
	note = {ISSN: 0831-8247},
}

@misc{natural_resources_canada_data_nodate,
	title = {Data {Sources} and {Methods} for {Daily} {Maps}},
	url = {https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/background/dsm/fwi},
	language = {eng},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Canadian Wildland Fire Information System},
	author = {{Natural Resources Canada}},
}

@article{wotton_length_1993,
	title = {Length of the fire season in a changing climate},
	volume = {69},
	issn = {0015-7546},
	url = {https://pubs.cif-ifc.org/doi/abs/10.5558/tfc69187-2},
	doi = {10.5558/tfc69187-2},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {The Forestry Chronicle},
	author = {Wotton, B. M. and Flannigan, M. D.},
	month = apr,
	year = {1993},
	note = {Publisher: Canadian Institute of Forestry},
	pages = {187--192},
}

@techreport{lawson_weather_2008,
	address = {Northern Forestry Centre},
	title = {Weather {Guide} for the {Canadian} {Forest} {Fire} {Danger} {Rating} {System}},
	url = {https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/29152.pdf},
	abstract = {The Weather Guide for the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System is intended primarily for operational wildland fire management personnel and forest fire weather practitioners responsible for gathering, processing, and forecasting fire weather information in support of safe and effective suppression and use of fire. Accurate and representative weather observations that meet prescribed standards and specifications are necessary for accurate and representative calculation of all components of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Weather-dependent components or modules are calculated or computed for effective use of the system’s two main subsystems, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System. This weather guide includes detailed specifications for locating and instrumenting fire weather stations, taking weather observations, and overwintering the Drought Code component of the FWI System. The sensitivity of the FWI System components to weather elements is represented quantitatively. The importance of weather that is not directly observable is discussed in the context of fuel moisture and fire behavior. Current developments in the observation and measurement of fire weather and the forecasting of fire danger are discussed, along with the implications for the reporting of fire weather of increasingly automated fire management information systems.},
	language = {en},
	number = {C2009-980001-2},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	institution = {Canadian Forest Service},
	author = {Lawson, B. D. and Armitage, O. B.},
	year = {2008},
	note = {ISSN 0831-8247},
	pages = {87},
}

@article{field_development_2015,
	title = {Development of a {Global} {Fire} {Weather} {Database}},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1561-8633},
	url = {https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/15/1407/2015/},
	doi = {10.5194/nhess-15-1407-2015},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor"{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC = 1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRA's precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere–ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {English},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
	author = {Field, R. D. and Spessa, A. C. and Aziz, N. A. and Camia, A. and Cantin, A. and Carr, R. and de Groot, W. J. and Dowdy, A. J. and Flannigan, M. D. and Manomaiphiboon, K. and Pappenberger, F. and Tanpipat, V. and Wang, X.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2015},
	note = {Publisher: Copernicus GmbH},
	pages = {1407--1423},
}

@inproceedings{van_wagner_drought_1985,
	address = {Detroit, Michigan},
	title = {Drought, {Timelag}, and {Fire} {Danger} {Rating}},
	url = {https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/23550.pdf},
	abstract = {This paper considers several principles of the construction and presentation of long-term moisture indexes in forest fire danger rating. Five different "drought" indexes are compared as to rate of moisture loss and gain, reservoir size, temperature effect, and whether presented on an absolute or comparative basis. The role of timelag in deciding whether the index should be computed continuously from one fire season to the next is tested. The purpose of the index will determine whether it should be presented in terms of the moisture content of some identifiable component of the fuel complex, or in some other form such as the content of a soil reservoir. Its role in fire danger rating is distinctly subsidiary, and not to be confused wi th the principal short-term indicators of fire ignition potential and rate of spread.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	booktitle = {Society of {American} {Foresters}},
	author = {Van Wagner, C. E.},
	month = may,
	year = {1985},
	pages = {178--185},
}

@article{mcelhinny_high-resolution_2020,
	title = {A high-resolution reanalysis of global fire weather from 1979 to 2018 – overwintering the {Drought} {Code}},
	volume = {12},
	issn = {1866-3508},
	url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/1823/2020/},
	doi = {10.5194/essd-12-1823-2020},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor"{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} We present a global high-resolution calculation of the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System indices using surface meteorology from the ERA5 HRES reanalysis for 1979–2018. ERA5 HRES represents an improved dataset compared to several other reanalyses in terms of accuracy, as well as spatial and temporal coverage. The FWI calculation is performed using two different procedures for setting the start-up value of the Drought Code (DC) at the beginning of the fire season. The first procedure, which accounts for the effects of inter-seasonal drought, overwinters the DC by adjusting the fall DC value with a fraction of accumulated overwinter precipitation. The second procedure sets the DC to its default start-up value (i.e. 15) at the start of each fire season. We validate the FWI values over Canada using station observations from Environment and Climate Change Canada and find generally good agreement (mean Spearman correlation of 0.77). We also show that significant differences in early season DC and FWI values can occur when the FWI System calculation is started using the overwintered versus default DC values, as is highlighted by an example from 2016 over North America. The FWI System moisture codes and fire behaviour indices are made available for both versions of the calculation at {\textless}a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3626193"{\textgreater}https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3626193{\textless}/a{\textgreater} (McElhinny et al., 2020), although we recommend using codes and indices calculated with the overwintered DC, unless specific research requirements dictate otherwise.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {English},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Earth System Science Data},
	author = {McElhinny, Megan and Beckers, Justin F. and Hanes, Chelene and Flannigan, Mike and Jain, Piyush},
	month = aug,
	year = {2020},
	note = {Publisher: Copernicus GmbH},
	pages = {1823--1833},
}

@article{spencer_fourier_1971,
	title = {Fourier series representation of the position of the sun},
	volume = {2},
	url = {https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1571980074286566912},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Search},
	author = {Spencer, J. W.},
	year = {1971},
	pages = {172},
}

@incollection{kalogirou_chapter_2014,
	address = {Boston},
	title = {Chapter 2 - {Environmental} {Characteristics}},
	isbn = {978-0-12-397270-5},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123972705000029},
	abstract = {Chapter 2 gives an analysis of the environmental characteristics of solar radiation and in particular the reckoning of time and solar angles. In the latter the basic solar geometry equations are given including declination, hour angle, altitude angle, azimuth angle as well as the incidence angle for stationary and moving surfaces, sun path diagrams, and shadow determination including the way to calculate shading effects. This is followed by a description of the basic principles of solar radiation heat transfer including transparent plates, radiation exchange between surfaces, extraterrestrial solar radiation, atmospheric attenuation, terrestrial irradiation, and total radiation on tilted surfaces. It concludes with a review of the solar radiation measuring instruments and the way to construct typical meteorological year files.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	booktitle = {Solar {Energy} {Engineering} ({Second} {Edition})},
	publisher = {Academic Press},
	author = {Kalogirou, Soteris A.},
	editor = {Kalogirou, Soteris A.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	doi = {10.1016/B978-0-12-397270-5.00002-9},
	keywords = {Atmospheric attenuation, Extraterrestrial radiation, Radiation exchange between surfaces, Shadow determination, Solar angles, Solar radiation, Solar radiation measuring instruments, Terrestrial irradiation, Total radiation on tilted surfaces, Typical meteorological year},
	pages = {51--123},
}

@article{matthes_solar_2017,
	title = {Solar forcing for {CMIP6} (v3.2)},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {1991-959X},
	url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/10/2247/2017/},
	doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor"{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.{\textless}br{\textgreater}{\textless}br{\textgreater}For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m$^{\textrm{−2}}$. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m$^{\textrm{−2}}$. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 \% compared to 35 \%).{\textless}br{\textgreater}{\textless}br{\textgreater}We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day$^{\textrm{−1}}$ at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 \%), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 \% in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day$^{\textrm{−1}}$ at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 \% in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.{\textless}br{\textgreater}{\textless}br{\textgreater}CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {English},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Geoscientific Model Development},
	author = {Matthes, Katja and Funke, Bernd and Andersson, Monika E. and Barnard, Luke and Beer, Jürg and Charbonneau, Paul and Clilverd, Mark A. and Dudok de Wit, Thierry and Haberreiter, Margit and Hendry, Aaron and Jackman, Charles H. and Kretzschmar, Matthieu and Kruschke, Tim and Kunze, Markus and Langematz, Ulrike and Marsh, Daniel R. and Maycock, Amanda C. and Misios, Stergios and Rodger, Craig J. and Scaife, Adam A. and Seppälä, Annika and Shangguan, Ming and Sinnhuber, Miriam and Tourpali, Kleareti and Usoskin, Ilya and van de Kamp, Max and Verronen, Pekka T. and Versick, Stefan},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	note = {Publisher: Copernicus GmbH},
	pages = {2247--2302},
}

@book{coles_introduction_2001,
	address = {London, UK},
	series = {Springer {Series} in {Statistics}},
	title = {An {Introduction} to {Statistical} {Modeling} of {Extreme} {Values}},
	isbn = {978-1-85233-459-8},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0},
	abstract = {Directly oriented towards real practical application, this book develops both the basic theoretical framework of extreme value models and the statistical inferential techniques for using these models in practice. Intended for statisticians and non-statisticians alike, the theoretical treatment is elementary, with heuristics often replacing detailed mathematical proof. Most aspects of extreme modeling techniques are covered, including historical techniques (still widely used) and contemporary techniques based on point process models. A wide range of worked examples, using genuine datasets, illustrate the various modeling procedures and a concluding chapter provides a brief introduction to a number of more advanced topics, including Bayesian inference and spatial extremes. All the computations are carried out using S-PLUS, and the corresponding datasets and functions are available via the Internet for readers to recreate examples for themselves. An essential reference for students and researchers in statistics and disciplines such as engineering, finance and environmental science, this book will also appeal to practitioners looking for practical help in solving real problems. Stuart Coles is Reader in Statistics at the University of Bristol, UK, having previously lectured at the universities of Nottingham and Lancaster. In 1992 he was the first recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's research prize. He has published widely in the statistical literature, principally in the area of extreme value modeling.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	publisher = {Springer-Verlag},
	author = {Coles, Stuart},
	month = aug,
	year = {2001},
	keywords = {Mathematics / Probability \& Statistics / General, Mathematics / Probability \& Statistics / Stochastic Processes, Medical / Biostatistics},
}

@book{cohen_parameter_2019,
	title = {Parameter {Estimation} in {Reliability} and {Life} {Span} {Models}},
	isbn = {978-0-367-40334-8},
	abstract = {Offers an applications-oriented treatment of parameter estimation from both complete and censored samples; contains notations, simplified formats for estimates, graphical techniques, and numerous tables and charts allowing users to calculate estimates and analyze sample data quickly and easily. Furnishing numerous practical examples, this resource serves as a handy reference for statisticians, biometricians, medical researchers, operations research and quality control practitioners, reliability and design engineers, and all others involved in the analysis of sample data from skewed distributions, as well as a text for senior undergraduate and graduate students in statistics, quality control, operations research, mathematics and biometry courses.},
	publisher = {CRC Press},
	author = {Cohen, A Clifford and Whitten, Betty Jones},
	month = sep,
	year = {2019},
}

@article{deque_frequency_2007,
	series = {Extreme {Climatic} {Events}},
	title = {Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over {France} in an anthropogenic scenario: {Model} results and statistical correction according to observed values},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {0921-8181},
	shorttitle = {Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over {France} in an anthropogenic scenario},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818106002748},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.030},
	abstract = {Météo-France atmospheric model ARPEGE/Climate has been used to simulate present climate (1961–1990) and a possible future climate (2071–2100) through two ensembles of three 30-year numerical experiments. In the scenario experiment, the greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations are prescribed by the so-called SRES-A2 hypotheses, whereas the sea surface temperature and sea ice extent come from an earlier ocean–atmosphere coupled simulation. The model covers the whole globe, with a variable resolution reaching 50 to 60 km over France. Model responses on daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation are analyzed over France. The distribution of daily values is compared with observed data from the French climatological network. The extreme cold temperatures and summer heavy precipitations are underestimated by the model. A correction technique is proposed in order to adjust the simulated values according to the observed ones. This process is applied to both reference and scenario simulation. Synthetic indices of extreme events are calculated with corrected simulations. The number of heavy rain ({\textgreater}10 mm) days increases by one quarter in winter. The maximum length of summer dry episodes increases by one half in summer. The number of heat wave days is multiplied by 10. The response in precipitation is less when only the change in the mean is considered. Such a corrected simulation is useful to feed impact models which are sensitive to threshold values, but the correction does not reduce, and may enhance in some cases, the uncertainty about the climate projections. Using several models and scenarios is the appropriate technique to deal with uncertainty.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Global and Planetary Change},
	author = {Déqué, Michel},
	month = may,
	year = {2007},
	keywords = {extreme values, numerical simulation, regional climate, scenario},
	pages = {16--26},
}

@article{cannon_bias_2015,
	title = {Bias {Correction} of {GCM} {Precipitation} by {Quantile} {Mapping}: {How} {Well} {Do} {Methods} {Preserve} {Changes} in {Quantiles} and {Extremes}?},
	volume = {28},
	issn = {0894-8755, 1520-0442},
	shorttitle = {Bias {Correction} of {GCM} {Precipitation} by {Quantile} {Mapping}},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/17/jcli-d-14-00754.1.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1},
	abstract = {Abstract Quantile mapping bias correction algorithms are commonly used to correct systematic distributional biases in precipitation outputs from climate models. Although they are effective at removing historical biases relative to observations, it has been found that quantile mapping can artificially corrupt future model-projected trends. Previous studies on the modification of precipitation trends by quantile mapping have focused on mean quantities, with less attention paid to extremes. This article investigates the extent to which quantile mapping algorithms modify global climate model (GCM) trends in mean precipitation and precipitation extremes indices. First, a bias correction algorithm, quantile delta mapping (QDM), that explicitly preserves relative changes in precipitation quantiles is presented. QDM is compared on synthetic data with detrended quantile mapping (DQM), which is designed to preserve trends in the mean, and with standard quantile mapping (QM). Next, methods are applied to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) daily precipitation projections over Canada. Performance is assessed based on precipitation extremes indices and results from a generalized extreme value analysis applied to annual precipitation maxima. QM can inflate the magnitude of relative trends in precipitation extremes with respect to the raw GCM, often substantially, as compared to DQM and especially QDM. The degree of corruption in the GCM trends by QM is particularly large for changes in long period return values. By the 2080s, relative changes in excess of +500\% with respect to historical conditions are noted at some locations for 20-yr return values, with maximum changes by DQM and QDM nearing +240\% and +140\%, respectively, whereas raw GCM changes are never projected to exceed +120\%.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {17},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Cannon, Alex J. and Sobie, Stephen R. and Murdock, Trevor Q.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2015},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Journal of Climate},
	pages = {6938--6959},
}

@misc{roy_juliaclimateclimatetoolsjl_2021,
	title = {{JuliaClimate}/{ClimateTools}.jl: v0.23.1},
	shorttitle = {{JuliaClimate}/{ClimateTools}.jl},
	url = {https://zenodo.org/record/5399172},
	abstract = {ClimateTools v0.23.1 Diff since v0.23.0 Closed issues: possible test failure in upcoming Julia version 1.5 (\#148) Merged pull requests: CompatHelper: bump compat for "DataFrames" to "1.0" (\#191) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for "GeoStats" to "0.25" (\#193) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for "Reexport" to "1" (\#194) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for Reexport to 1, (keep existing compat) (\#196) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for Interpolations to 0.13, (keep existing compat) (\#197) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for NCDatasets to 0.11, (keep existing compat) (\#198) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for GeoStats to 0.26, (keep existing compat) (\#199) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for NetCDF to 0.11, (keep existing compat) (\#201) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for ClimateBase to 0.13, (keep existing compat) (\#202) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for Distances to 0.10, (keep existing compat) (\#204) (@github-actions[bot]) CompatHelper: bump compat for Shapefile to 0.7, (keep existing compat) (\#205) (@github-actions[bot]) fix for extreme bug (\#206) (@Balinus)},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	publisher = {Zenodo},
	author = {Roy, Philippe and Smith, Trevor James and Kelman, Tony and Nolet-Gravel, Éloïse and Saba, Elliot and Thomet, Fidel and TagBot, Julia and Forget, Gael},
	month = sep,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.5281/zenodo.5399172},
}

@article{schmidli_downscaling_2006,
	title = {Downscaling from {GCM} precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {1097-0088},
	shorttitle = {Downscaling from {GCM} precipitation},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.1287},
	doi = {10.1002/joc.1287},
	abstract = {A precipitation downscaling method is presented using precipitation from a general circulation model (GCM) as predictor. The method extends a previous method from monthly to daily temporal resolution. The simplest form of the method corrects for biases in wet-day frequency and intensity. A more sophisticated variant also takes account of flow-dependent biases in the GCM. The method is flexible and simple to implement. It is proposed here as a correction of GCM output for applications where sophisticated methods are not available, or as a benchmark for the evaluation of other downscaling methods. Applied to output from reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP) in the region of the European Alps, the method is capable of reducing large biases in the precipitation frequency distribution, even for high quantiles. The two variants exhibit similar performances, but the ideal choice of method can depend on the GCM/reanalysis and it is recommended to test the methods in each case. Limitations of the method are found in small areas with unresolved topographic detail that influence higher-order statistics (e.g. high quantiles). When used as benchmark for three regional climate models (RCMs), the corrected reanalysis and the RCMs perform similarly in many regions, but the added value of the latter is evident for high quantiles in some small regions. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
	author = {Schmidli, Jürg and Frei, Christoph and Vidale, Pier Luigi},
	year = {2006},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.1287},
	keywords = {European alps, precipitation statistics, reanalysis, regional climate model, statistical downscaling},
	pages = {679--689},
}

@article{hnilica_multisite_2017,
	title = {Multisite bias correction of precipitation data from regional climate models},
	volume = {37},
	issn = {1097-0088},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.4890},
	doi = {10.1002/joc.4890},
	abstract = {The characteristics of precipitation in regional climate model simulations deviate considerably from those of the observed data; therefore, bias correction is a standard part of most climate change impact assessment studies. The standard approach is that the corrections are calibrated and applied separately for individual spatial points and meteorological variables. For this reason, the correlation and covariance structures of the observed and corrected data differ, although the individual observed and corrected data sets correspond well in their statistical indicators. This inconsistency may affect impact studies using corrected simulations. This study presents a new approach to the bias correction utilizing principal components in combination with quantile mapping, which allows for the correction of multivariate data sets. The proposed procedure significantly reduces the bias in covariance and correlation structures, as well as that in the distribution of individual variables. This is in contrast to standard quantile mapping, which only corrects the individual distributions, and leaves the dependence structure biased.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
	author = {Hnilica, Jan and Hanel, Martin and Puš, Vladimír},
	year = {2017},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.4890},
	keywords = {bias correction, correlation, covariance, multisite correction, multivariate data, precipitation, principal components, regional climate model},
	pages = {2934--2946},
}


@article{alavoine_distinct_2022,
	title = {The distinct problems of physical inconsistency and of multivariate bias involved in the statistical adjustment of climate simulations},
	issn = {1097-0088},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.7878},
	doi = {10.1002/joc.7878},
	abstract = {Bias adjustment of numerical climate model simulations involves several arguments wherein the notion of physical inconsistency is referred to, either for rejecting the legitimacy of bias adjustment in general or for justifying the necessity of sophisticated multivariate techniques. However, this notion is often mishandled, in part because the literature generally proceeds without defining it. In this context, the central objective of this study is to clarify and illustrate the distinction between physical inconsistency and multivariate bias, by investigating the effect of bias adjustment on two different kinds of intervariable relationships, namely a physical constraint expected to hold at every step of a time series and statistical properties that emerge with potential bias over a climatic timescale. To this end, 18 alternative bias adjustment techniques are applied on 10 climate simulations at 12 sites over North America. Adjusted variables are temperature, pressure, relative humidity and specific humidity, linked by a thermodynamic constraint. The analysis suggests on the one hand that a clear instance of potential physical inconsistency can be avoided with either a univariate or a multivariate technique, if and only if the bias adjustment strategy explicitly considers the physical constraint to be preserved. On the other hand, it also suggests that sophisticated multivariate techniques alone are not complete adjustment strategies in presence of a physical constraint, as they cannot replace its explicit consideration. By involving common bias adjustment procedures with likely effects on diverse basic statistical properties, this study may also help guide climate information users in the determination of adequate bias adjustment strategies for their research purposes.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
	author = {Alavoine, Mégane and Grenier, Patrick},
	month = sep,
	year = {2022},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.7878},
	keywords = {bias adjustment techniques, climate simulations, multivariate biases, physical relationships},
	pages = {1--23},
}

@article{cannon_multivariate_2018,
	title = {Multivariate quantile mapping bias correction: an {N}-dimensional probability density function transform for climate model simulations of multiple variables},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {1432-0894},
	shorttitle = {Multivariate quantile mapping bias correction},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3580-6},
	doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3580-6},
	abstract = {Most bias correction algorithms used in climatology, for example quantile mapping, are applied to univariate time series. They neglect the dependence between different variables. Those that are multivariate often correct only limited measures of joint dependence, such as Pearson or Spearman rank correlation. Here, an image processing technique designed to transfer colour information from one image to another—the N-dimensional probability density function transform—is adapted for use as a multivariate bias correction algorithm (MBCn) for climate model projections/predictions of multiple climate variables. MBCn is a multivariate generalization of quantile mapping that transfers all aspects of an observed continuous multivariate distribution to the corresponding multivariate distribution of variables from a climate model. When applied to climate model projections, changes in quantiles of each variable between the historical and projection period are also preserved. The MBCn algorithm is demonstrated on three case studies. First, the method is applied to an image processing example with characteristics that mimic a climate projection problem. Second, MBCn is used to correct a suite of 3-hourly surface meteorological variables from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) across a North American domain. Components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, a complicated set of multivariate indices that characterizes the risk of wildfire, are then calculated and verified against observed values. Third, MBCn is used to correct biases in the spatial dependence structure of CanRCM4 precipitation fields. Results are compared against a univariate quantile mapping algorithm, which neglects the dependence between variables, and two multivariate bias correction algorithms, each of which corrects a different form of inter-variable correlation structure. MBCn outperforms these alternatives, often by a large margin, particularly for annual maxima of the FWI distribution and spatiotemporal autocorrelation of precipitation fields.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Climate Dynamics},
	author = {Cannon, Alex J.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {Bias correction, Climate model, Fire weather, Model output statistics, Multivariate, Post-processing, Precipitation, Quantile mapping},
	pages = {31--49},
}

@misc{cannon_mbc_2020,
	title = {{MBC}: {Multivariate} {Bias} {Correction} of {Climate} {Model} {Outputs}},
	copyright = {GPL-2},
	shorttitle = {{MBC}},
	url = {https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=MBC},
	abstract = {Calibrate and apply multivariate bias correction algorithms for climate model simulations of multiple climate variables. Three methods described by Cannon (2016) {\textless}doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0679.1{\textgreater} and Cannon (2018) {\textless}doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3580-6{\textgreater} are implemented — (i) MBC Pearson correlation (MBCp), (ii) MBC rank correlation (MBCr), and (iii) MBC N-dimensional PDF transform (MBCn) — as is the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) method.},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	author = {Cannon, Alex J.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2020},
	keywords = {Hydrology},
}

@misc{mezzadri_how_2007,
	title = {How to generate random matrices from the classical compact groups},
	url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/math-ph/0609050},
	doi = {10.48550/arXiv.math-ph/0609050},
	abstract = {We discuss how to generate random unitary matrices from the classical compact groups U(N), O(N) and USp(N) with probability distributions given by the respective invariant measures. The algorithm is straightforward to implement using standard linear algebra packages. This approach extends to the Dyson circular ensembles too. This article is based on a lecture given by the author at the summer school on Number Theory and Random Matrix Theory held at the University of Rochester in June 2006. The exposition is addressed to a general mathematical audience.},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	publisher = {arXiv},
	author = {Mezzadri, Francesco},
	month = feb,
	year = {2007},
	note = {arXiv:math-ph/0609050
version: 2},
	keywords = {1502,15A52, 65F25, Mathematical Physics, Mathematics - Numerical Analysis},
}

@inproceedings{pitie_n-dimensional_2005,
	title = {N-dimensional probability density function transfer and its application to color transfer},
	volume = {2},
	doi = {10.1109/ICCV.2005.166},
	abstract = {This article proposes an original method to estimate a continuous transformation that maps one N-dimensional distribution to another. The method is iterative, non-linear, and is shown to converge. Only 1D marginal distribution is used in the estimation process, hence involving low computation costs. As an illustration this mapping is applied to color transfer between two images of different contents. The paper also serves as a central focal point for collecting together the research activity in this area and relating it to the important problem of automated color grading},
	language = {en},
	booktitle = {Tenth {IEEE} {International} {Conference} on {Computer} {Vision} ({ICCV}'05) {Volume} 1},
	author = {Pitie, F. and Kokaram, A.C. and Dahyot, R.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2005},
	note = {ISSN: 2380-7504},
	keywords = {Color, Computational efficiency, Density functional theory, Distributed computing, Educational institutions, Image converters, Iterative methods, Rendering (computer graphics), Statistical distributions, Statistics},
	pages = {1434--1439 Vol. 2},
}

@article{cleveland_robust_1979,
	title = {Robust {Locally} {Weighted} {Regression} and {Smoothing} {Scatterplots}},
	volume = {74},
	issn = {0162-1459},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1979.10481038},
	doi = {10.1080/01621459.1979.10481038},
	abstract = {The visual information on a scatterplot can be greatly enhanced, with little additional cost, by computing and plotting smoothed points. Robust locally weighted regression is a method for smoothing a scatterplot, (x i , y i ), i = 1, …, n, in which the fitted value at z k is the value of a polynomial fit to the data using weighted least squares, where the weight for (x i , y i ) is large if x i is close to x k and small if it is not. A robust fitting procedure is used that guards against deviant points distorting the smoothed points. Visual, computational, and statistical issues of robust locally weighted regression are discussed. Several examples, including data on lead intoxication, are used to illustrate the methodology.},
	number = {368},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Cleveland, William S.},
	month = dec,
	year = {1979},
	note = {Publisher: Taylor \& Francis
\_eprint: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01621459.1979.10481038},
	keywords = {Graphics, Nonparametric regression, Robust estimation, Scatterplots, Smoothing},
	pages = {829--836},
}

@article{themesl_empirical-statistical_2012,
	title = {Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {1573-1480},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0224-4},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0224-4},
	abstract = {Realizing the error characteristics of regional climate models (RCMs) and the consequent limitations in their direct utilization in climate change impact research, this study analyzes a quantile-based empirical-statistical error correction method (quantile mapping, QM) for RCMs in the context of climate change. In particular the success of QM in mitigating systematic RCM errors, its ability to generate “new extremes” (values outside the calibration range), and its impact on the climate change signal (CCS) are investigated. In a cross-validation framework based on a RCM control simulation over Europe, QM reduces the bias of daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature, precipitation amount, and derived indices of extremes by about one order of magnitude and strongly improves the shapes of the related frequency distributions. In addition, a simple extrapolation of the error correction function enables QM to reproduce “new extremes” without deterioration and mostly with improvement of the original RCM quality. QM only moderately modifies the CCS of the corrected parameters. The changes are related to trends in the scenarios and magnitude-dependent error characteristics. Additionally, QM has a large impact on CCSs of non-linearly derived indices of extremes, such as threshold indices.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Themeßl, Matthias Jakob and Gobiet, Andreas and Heinrich, Georg},
	month = may,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Climate Change Signal, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Precipitation Amount, Quantile Mapping, Regional Climate Model},
	pages = {449--468},
}

@article{baringhaus_new_2004,
	title = {On a new multivariate two-sample test},
	volume = {88},
	issn = {0047-259X},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047259X03000794},
	doi = {10.1016/S0047-259X(03)00079-4},
	abstract = {In this paper we propose a new test for the multivariate two-sample problem. The test statistic is the difference of the sum of all the Euclidean interpoint distances between the random variables from the two different samples and one-half of the two corresponding sums of distances of the variables within the same sample. The asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic is derived using the projection method and shown to be the limit of the bootstrap distribution. A simulation study includes the comparison of univariate and multivariate normal distributions for location and dispersion alternatives. For normal location alternatives the new test is shown to have power similar to that of the t- and T2-Test.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Journal of Multivariate Analysis},
	author = {Baringhaus, L. and Franz, C.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2004},
	keywords = {Bootstrapping, Cramér test, Multivariate two-sample test, Orthogonal invariance, Projection method},
	pages = {190--206},
}

@misc{jalbert_extreme_2022,
	title = {Extreme value analysis package for {Julia}.},
	url = {https://github.com/jojal5/Extremes.jl},
	abstract = {Extreme value analysis package for Julia},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	author = {Jalbert, Jonathan},
	month = jun,
	year = {2022},
	note = {original-date: 2019-01-20T03:26:32Z},
}

@article{roy_probabilistic_2017,
	title = {Probabilistic climate change scenarios for viticultural potential in {Québec}},
	volume = {143},
	issn = {1573-1480},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1960-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-1960-x},
	abstract = {Climate conditions for Québec’s viticultural potential (VP) during upcoming decades are estimated through high-resolution probabilistic climate scenarios (PCS) based on a large ensemble of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). VP is investigated through four temperature-related indices identified as current limiting factors for cold, northern latitudes: length of frost-free season (CNFD), growing degree-days (DDB10), annual winter minimum temperature (AWMT), and annual number of very cold days (ANVCD). Results show that by 2040–2050, most of southern Québec can reasonably expect favorable climatic conditions, with enough consecutive frost-free days and growing degree-days for growing current hybrid-grape varieties, as well as some Vitis vinifera grape varieties. Regions with new VP are identified, for example southern Outaouais and along the St-Lawrence River. Cold winter temperatures remain problematic, but technical solutions to this limiting factor exist.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Roy, Philippe and Grenier, Patrick and Barriault, Evelyne and Logan, Travis and Blondlot, Anne and Bourgeois, Gaétan and Chaumont, Diane},
	month = jul,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Climate Index, Grape Variety, Pinot Noir, Representative Concentration Pathway, Wine Industry},
	pages = {43--58},
}

@article{grenier_assessment_2013,
	title = {An {Assessment} of {Six} {Dissimilarity} {Metrics} for {Climate} {Analogs}},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {1558-8424, 1558-8432},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/52/4/jamc-d-12-0170.1.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0170.1},
	abstract = {Abstract Spatial analog techniques consist in identifying locations whose historical climate is similar to the anticipated future climate at a reference location. In the process of identifying analogs, one key step is the quantification of the dissimilarity between two climates separated in time and space, which involves the choice of a metric. In this study, six a priori suitable metrics are described (the standardized Euclidean distance, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistic, the nearest-neighbor distance, the Zech–Aslan energy statistic, the Friedman–Rafsky runs statistic, and the Kullback–Leibler divergence) and criteria are proposed and investigated in an attempt to identify the best metric for selecting spatial analogs. The case study involves the use of numerical simulations performed with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM, version 4.2.3), from which three annual indicators (total precipitation, heating degree-days, and cooling degree-days) are calculated over 30-yr periods (1971–2000 and 2041–70). It is found that the six metrics identify comparable analog regions at a relatively large scale but that best analogs may differ substantially. For best analogs, it is shown that the uncertainty stemming from the metric choice does not generally exceed that stemming from the simulation or model choice. On the basis of the set of criteria considered in this study, the Zech–Aslan energy statistic stands out as the most recommended metric for analog studies, whereas the Friedman–Rafsky runs statistic is the least recommended.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	author = {Grenier, Patrick and Parent, Annie-Claude and Huard, David and Anctil, François and Chaumont, Diane},
	month = apr,
	year = {2013},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	pages = {733--752},
}

@inproceedings{zech_multivariate_2003,
	address = {SLAC, Stanford, California, USA},
	title = {A {Multivariate} {Two}-{Sample} {Test} {Based} on the {Concept} of {Minimum} {Energy}},
	url = {https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/A-Multivariate-Two-Sample-Test-Based-on-the-Concept-Zech-Aslan/60e8b69d6f91a64231a0ab6bf1ddef1e88fb03f6},
	abstract = {We introduce a new statistical quantity the energy to test whether two samples originate from the same distributions. The energy is a simple logarithmic function of the distances of the observations in the variate space. The distribution of the test statistic is determined by a resampling method. The power of the energy test in one dimension was studied for a variety of dieren t test samples and compared to several nonparametric tests. In two and four dimensions a comparison was performed with the Friedman-Rafsky and nearest neighbor tests. The two-sample energy test is especially powerful in multidimensional applications.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	booktitle = {Statistical {Problems} in {Particle} {Physics}, {Astrophysics} and {Cosmology}},
	author = {Zech, G. and Aslan, B.},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {97--100},
}

@misc{aslan_new_2003,
	title = {A new class of binning free, multivariate goodness-of-fit tests: the energy tests},
	shorttitle = {A new class of binning free, multivariate goodness-of-fit tests},
	url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ex/0203010},
	doi = {10.48550/arXiv.hep-ex/0203010},
	abstract = {We present a new class of multivariate binning-free and nonparametric goodness-of-fit tests. The test quantity {\textbackslash}emph\{energy\} is a function of the distances of observed and simulated observations in the variate space. The simulation follows the probability distribution function \$f\_\{0\}\$ of the null hypothesis. The distances are weighted with a weighting function which can be adjusted to the variations of \$f\_\{0\}\$. We have investigated the power of the test for a uniform and a Gaussian distribution of one or two variates, respectively and compared it to that of conventional tests. The energy test with a Gaussian weighting function is closely related to the Pearson \${\textbackslash}chi {\textasciicircum}\{2\}\$ test but is more powerful in most applications and avoids arbitrary bin boundaries. The test is especially powerful in the multivariate case.},
	urldate = {2022-11-16},
	publisher = {arXiv},
	author = {Aslan, B. and Zech, G.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2003},
	note = {arXiv:hep-ex/0203010},
	keywords = {High Energy Physics - Experiment, Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability},
}

@inproceedings{perez-cruz_kullback-leibler_2008,
	address = {Toronto, ON, Canada},
	title = {Kullback-{Leibler} divergence estimation of continuous distributions},
	isbn = {978-1-4244-2256-2},
	url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/4595271/},
	abstract = {We present a method for estimating the KL divergence between continuous densities and we prove it converges almost surely. Divergence estimation is typically solved estimating the densities first. Our main result shows this intermediate step is unnecessary and that the divergence can be either estimated using the empirical cdf or k-nearest-neighbour density estimation, which does not converge to the true measure for finite k. The convergence proof is based on describing the statistics of our estimator using waiting-times distributions, as the exponential or Erlang. We illustrate the proposed estimators and show how they compare to existing methods based on density estimation, and we also outline how our divergence estimators can be used for solving the two-sample problem.},
	booktitle = {2008 {IEEE} {International} {Symposium} on {Information} {Theory}},
	publisher = {IEEE},
	author = {Perez-Cruz, Fernando},
	month = jun,
	year = {2008},
	note = {ISSN: 2157-8117},
	keywords = {Approximation methods, Convergence, Density measurement, Entropy, Estimation, Exponential distribution, Random variables},
	pages = {1666--1670},
}

@article{friedman_multivariate_1979,
	title = {Multivariate {Generalizations} of the {Wald}-{Wolfowitz} and {Smirnov} {Two}-{Sample} {Tests}},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {0090-5364, 2168-8966},
	url = {https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-statistics/volume-7/issue-4/Multivariate-Generalizations-of-the-Wald-Wolfowitz-and-Smirnov-Two-Sample/10.1214/aos/1176344722.full},
	doi = {10.1214/aos/1176344722},
	abstract = {Multivariate generalizations of the Wald-Wolfowitz runs statistic and the Smirnov maximum deviation statistic for the two-sample problem are presented. They are based on the minimal spanning tree of the pooled sample points. Some null distribution results are derived and a simulation study of power is reported.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {The Annals of Statistics},
	author = {Friedman, Jerome H. and Rafsky, Lawrence C.},
	month = jul,
	year = {1979},
	note = {Publisher: Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
	keywords = {05C05, 62G10, 62G30, 62H15, 62H20, Minimal spanning trees, multivariate observations, nonparametric two-sample tests, Runs, Smirnov test, Wald-Wolfowitz test},
	pages = {697--717},
}

@article{fasano_multidimensional_1987,
	title = {A multidimensional version of the {Kolmogorov}–{Smirnov} test},
	volume = {225},
	issn = {0035-8711},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/225.1.155},
	doi = {10.1093/mnras/225.1.155},
	abstract = {We discuss a generalization of the classical Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, which is suitable to analyse random samples defined in two or three dimensions. This test provides some improvements with respect to an earlier version proposed by Peacock. In particular: (i) it is faster, by a factor equal to the sample size, n, and then usable to analyse quite sizeable samples; (ii) it fully takes into account the dependence of the test statistics on the degree of correlation of data points and on the sample size; (iii) it allows for a generalization to the three-dimensional case which is still viable as regards computing time. Supported by a large number of Monte Carlo simulations, we are ensured that this test is sufficiently distribution-free for any practical purposes. We also give a simple analytic expression to make easier the calculation of the critical values of the test probability distribution. To illustrate how the test works, we use it to analyse models of the cosmological evolution of X-ray selected active galactic nuclei and we show that it is a much more sensitive goodness-of-fit test than the χ2.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society},
	author = {Fasano, G. and Franceschini, A.},
	month = mar,
	year = {1987},
	pages = {155--170},
}

@article{cannon_selecting_2015,
	title = {Selecting {GCM} {Scenarios} that {Span} the {Range} of {Changes} in a {Multimodel} {Ensemble}: {Application} to {CMIP5} {Climate} {Extremes} {Indices}},
	volume = {28},
	issn = {0894-8755, 1520-0442},
	shorttitle = {Selecting {GCM} {Scenarios} that {Span} the {Range} of {Changes} in a {Multimodel} {Ensemble}},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00636.1.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00636.1},
	abstract = {Abstract Logistical constraints can limit the number of global climate model (GCM) simulations considered in a climate change impact assessment. When dealing with annual or seasonal variables, one can visualize and manually select GCM scenarios to cover as much of the ensemble’s range of changes as possible. Most environmental systems are sensitive to climate conditions (e.g., extremes) that cannot be described by a small number of variables. Instead, algorithms like k-means clustering have been used to select representative ensemble members. Clustering algorithms are, however, biased toward high-density regions of climate variable space and tend to select scenarios that describe the central tendency rather than the full spread of an ensemble. Also, scenarios selected via clustering may not be ordered: that is, scenarios in the five-cluster solution may not appear in the six-cluster solution, which makes recommending a consistent set of scenarios to researchers with different needs difficult. Alternatively, an automated procedure based on a cluster initialization algorithm is proposed and applied to changes in 27 climate extremes indices between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 from a large ensemble of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. Selections by the method are ordered and are designed to span the overall range of the ensemble. The number of scenarios required to account for changes spanned by at least 90\% of the CMIP5 ensemble members is reported for 21 regions of the globe and compared with k-means clustering. On average, the proposed method requires 40\% fewer scenarios to meet this threshold than k-means clustering does.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Cannon, Alex J.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society. Section: Journal of Climate},
	pages = {1260--1267},
}

@article{casajus_objective_2016,
	title = {An {Objective} {Approach} to {Select} {Climate} {Scenarios} when {Projecting} {Species} {Distribution} under {Climate} {Change}},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0152495},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0152495},
	abstract = {An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {PLOS ONE},
	author = {Casajus, Nicolas and Périé, Catherine and Logan, Travis and Lambert, Marie-Claude and Blois, Sylvie de and Berteaux, Dominique},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	note = {Publisher: Public Library of Science},
	keywords = {Anthropogenic climate change, Climate change, Climate modeling, Forecasting, k means clustering, Probability distribution, Statistical distributions, Statistical models},
	pages = {e0152495},
}

@incollection{collins_long-term_2013,
	address = {Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA},
	title = {Long-term {Climate} {Change}: {Projections}, {Commitments} and {Irreversibility}},
	language = {en},
	booktitle = {Climate {Change} 2013: {The} {Physical} {Science} {Basis}. {Contribution} of {Working} {Group} {I} to the {Fifth} {Assessment} {Report} of the {Intergovernmental} {Panel} on {Climate} {Change}},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Collins, Matthew and Knutti, Reto and Arblaster, Julie and Dufresne, Jean-Louis and Fichefet, Thierry and Gao, Xuejie and Jr, William J Gutowski and Johns, Tim and Krinner, Gerhard and Shongwe, Mxolisi and Weaver, Andrew J and Wehner, Michael and Allen, Myles R and Andrews, Tim and Beyerle, Urs and Bitz, Cecilia M and Bony, Sandrine and Booth, Ben B B and Brooks, Harold E and Brovkin, Victor and Browne, Oliver and Brutel-Vuilmet, Claire and Cane, Mark and Chadwick, Robin and Cook, Ed and Cook, Kerry H and Eby, Michael and Fasullo, John and Forest, Chris E and Forster, Piers and Good, Peter and Goosse, Hugues and Gregory, Jonathan M and Hegerl, Gabriele C and Hezel, Paul J and Hodges, Kevin I and Holland, Marika M and Huber, Markus and Joshi, Manoj and Kharin, Viatcheslav and Kushnir, Yochanan and Lawrence, David M and Lee, Robert W and Liddicoat, Spencer and Lucas, Christopher and Lucht, Wolfgang and Marotzke, Jochem and Massonnet, François and Matthews, H Damon and Meinshausen, Malte and Morice, Colin and Otto, Alexander and Patricola, Christina M and Philippon, Gwenaëlle and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Riley, William J and Saenko, Oleg and Seager, Richard and Sedláček, Jan and Shaffrey, Len C and Shindell, Drew and Sillmann, Jana and Stevens, Bjorn and Stott, Peter A and Webb, Robert and Zappa, Giuseppe and Zickfeld, Kirsten and Joussaume, Sylvie and Mokssit, Abdalah and Taylor, Karl and Tett, Simon},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {1029--1136},
}

@article{tebaldi_mapping_2011,
	title = {Mapping model agreement on future climate projections},
	volume = {38},
	issn = {1944-8007},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2011GL049863},
	doi = {10.1029/2011GL049863},
	abstract = {Climate change projections are often based on simulations from multiple global climate models and are presented as maps with some form of stippling or measure of robustness to indicate where different models agree on the projected anthropogenically forced changes. The criteria used to determine model agreement, however, often ignore the presence of natural internal variability. We demonstrate that this leads to misleading presentations of the degree of model consensus on the sign and magnitude of the change if the ratio of the signal from the externally forced change to internal variability is low. We present a simple alternative method of depicting multimodel projections which clearly separates lack of climate change signal from lack of model agreement by assessing the degree of consensus on the significance of the change as well as the sign of the change. Our results demonstrate that the common interpretation of lack of model agreement in precipitation projections is largely an artifact of the large noise from climate variability masking the signal, an issue exacerbated by performing analyses at the grid point scale. We argue that separating more clearly the case of lack of agreement from the case of lack of signal will add valuable information for stake-holders' decision making, since adaptation measures required in the two cases are potentially very different.},
	language = {en},
	number = {23},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	author = {Tebaldi, Claudia and Arblaster, Julie M. and Knutti, Reto},
	year = {2011},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2011GL049863},
	keywords = {future projections, model agreement, natural variability, significance},
}

@article{knutti_robustness_2013,
	title = {Robustness and uncertainties in the new {CMIP5} climate model projections},
	volume = {3},
	copyright = {2012 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1716},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate1716},
	abstract = {Updated models are being used for the new assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study compares projections from the latest models with those from earlier versions. The spread of results has not changed significantly, and some of the spread will always remain due to the internal variability of the climate system. As models improve, they are able to represent more processes in greater detail, allowing for greater confidence in their projections, in spite of model spread.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Knutti, Reto and Sedláček, Jan},
	month = apr,
	year = {2013},
	note = {Number: 4
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Climate sciences, Theoretical ecology},
	pages = {369--373},
}

@article{agbazo_characterizing_2020,
	title = {Characterizing and avoiding physical inconsistency generated by the application of univariate quantile mapping on daily minimum and maximum temperatures over {Hudson} {Bay}},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {1097-0088},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6432},
	doi = {10.1002/joc.6432},
	abstract = {Quantile mapping (QM) is a technique often used for statistical post-processing (SPP) of climate model simulations, in order to adjust their biases relative to a selected reference product and/or to downscale their resolution. However, when QM is applied in univariate mode, there is a risk of generating other problems, like intervariable physical inconsistency (PI). Here, such a risk is investigated with daily temperature minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax), for which the relationship Tmin {\textgreater} Tmax would be inconsistent with the definition of the variables. QM is applied to an ensemble of 78 daily CMIP5 simulations over Hudson Bay for the application period 1979–2100, with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) selected as the reference product during the calibration period 1979–2010. This study's specific objectives are as follows: to investigate the conditions under which PI situations are generated; to test whether PI may be prevented simply by tuning some of the QM technique's numerical choices; and to compare the suitability of alternative approaches that hinder PI by design. Primary results suggest that PI situations appear preferentially for small values of the initial (simulated) diurnal temperature range (DTR), but the differential between the respective biases of Tmin and Tmax also plays an important role; one cannot completely prevent the generation of PI simply by adjusting QM parameters and options, but forcing preservation of the simulated long-term trends generates fewer PI situations; for avoiding PI between Tmin and Tmax, the present study supports a previous recommendation to directly post-process Tmax and DTR before deducing Tmin.},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
	author = {Agbazo, Médard Noukpo and Grenier, Patrick},
	year = {2020},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/joc.6432},
	keywords = {bias adjustment, climate simulations, physical inconsistency, univariate quantile mapping},
	pages = {3868--3884},
}

@article{grenier_two_2018,
	title = {Two {Types} of {Physical} {Inconsistency} to {Avoid} with {Univariate} {Quantile} {Mapping}: {A} {Case} {Study} over {North} {America} {Concerning} {Relative} {Humidity} and {Its} {Parent} {Variables}},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {1558-8424, 1558-8432},
	shorttitle = {Two {Types} of {Physical} {Inconsistency} to {Avoid} with {Univariate} {Quantile} {Mapping}},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/apme/57/2/jamc-d-17-0177.1.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0177.1},
	abstract = {Abstract Univariate quantile mapping (QM), a technique often used to statistically postprocess climate simulations, may generate physical inconsistency. This issue is investigated here by classifying physical inconsistency into two types. Type I refers to the attribution of an impossible value to a single variable, and type II refers to the breaking of a fixed intervariable relationship. Here QM is applied to relative humidity (RH) and its parent variables, namely, temperature, pressure, and specific humidity. Twelve sites representing various climate types across North America are investigated. Time series from an ensemble of ten 3-hourly simulations are postprocessed, with the CFSR reanalysis used as the reference product. For type I, results indicate that direct postprocessing of RH generates supersaturation values ({\textgreater}100\%) at relatively small frequencies of occurrence. Generated supersaturation amplitudes exceed observed values in fog and clouds. Supersaturation values are generally more frequent and higher when RH is deduced from postprocessed parent variables. For type II, results show that univariate QM practically always breaks the intervariable thermodynamic relationship. Heuristic proxies are designed for comparing the initial bias with physical inconsistency of type II, and results suggest that QM generates a problem that is arguably lesser than the one it is intended to solve. When physical inconsistency is avoided by capping one humidity variable at its saturation level and deducing the other, statistical equivalence with the reference product remains much improved relative to the initial situation. A recommendation for climate services is to postprocess RH and deduce specific humidity rather than the opposite.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	author = {Grenier, Patrick},
	month = feb,
	year = {2018},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	pages = {347--364},
}

@article{hoffmann_meteorologically_2012,
	title = {Meteorologically consistent bias correction of climate time series for agricultural models},
	volume = {110},
	issn = {1434-4483},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0618-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s00704-012-0618-x},
	abstract = {Conventional bias correction of simulated climate time series for impact models is done separately for climate variables and hence leads to inconsistencies between them. However, agricultural models mostly use several variables, and meteorological consistency is essential. The present work points out meteorological inconsistency due to quantile mapping and describes a new method of consistent bias correction by an optimization approach. Time series of hourly precipitation and global radiation from the regional model REMO5.7 (Run UBA C20/A1B\_1) were corrected with site observations from the German Meteorological Service. The results urge to check conventionally corrected series for consistency before using them for multidimensional models. Here, quantile mapping resulted in underestimation of diffuse radiation at hours with precipitation. This deficit was minimized by the developed procedure.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
	author = {Hoffmann, Holger and Rath, Thomas},
	month = oct,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Bias Correction, Diffuse Radiation, Global Radiation, Quantile Mapping, Simulated Time Series},
	pages = {129--141},
}

@article{thrasher_technical_2012,
	title = {Technical {Note}: {Bias} correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1027-5606},
	shorttitle = {Technical {Note}},
	url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/16/3309/2012/},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-16-3309-2012},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}{\textless}strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor"{\textgreater}Abstract.{\textless}/strong{\textgreater} When applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) can become physically unrealistic. While causes are not thoroughly explored, there is a strong relationship between GCM biases in snow albedo feedback during snowmelt and bias correction resulting in unrealistic DTR values. We propose a technique to bias correct DTR, based on comparing observations and GCM historic simulations, and combine that with either bias correcting daily maximum temperatures and calculating daily minimum temperatures or vice versa. By basing the bias correction on a base period of 1961–1980 and validating it during a test period of 1981–1999, we show that bias correcting DTR and maximum daily temperature can produce more accurate estimations of daily temperature extremes while avoiding the pathological cases of unrealistic DTR values.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	language = {English},
	number = {9},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	author = {Thrasher, B. and Maurer, E. P. and McKellar, C. and Duffy, P. B.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2012},
	note = {Publisher: Copernicus GmbH},
	pages = {3309--3314},
}

@article{pierce_statistical_2014,
	title = {Statistical {Downscaling} {Using} {Localized} {Constructed} {Analogs} ({LOCA})},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1525-7541, 1525-755X},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/15/6/jhm-d-14-0082_1.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-14-0082.1},
	abstract = {Abstract A new technique for statistically downscaling climate model simulations of daily temperature and precipitation is introduced and demonstrated over the western United States. The localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method produces downscaled estimates suitable for hydrological simulations using a multiscale spatial matching scheme to pick appropriate analog days from observations. First, a pool of candidate observed analog days is chosen by matching the model field to be downscaled to observed days over the region that is positively correlated with the point being downscaled, which leads to a natural independence of the downscaling results to the extent of the domain being downscaled. Then, the one candidate analog day that best matches in the local area around the grid cell being downscaled is the single analog day used there. Most grid cells are downscaled using only the single locally selected analog day, but locations whose neighboring cells identify a different analog day use a weighted combination of the center and adjacent analog days to reduce edge discontinuities. By contrast, existing constructed analog methods typically use a weighted average of the same 30 analog days for the entire domain. By greatly reducing this averaging, LOCA produces better estimates of extreme days, constructs a more realistic depiction of the spatial coherence of the downscaled field, and reduces the problem of producing too many light-precipitation days. The LOCA method is more computationally expensive than existing constructed analog techniques, but it is still practical for downscaling numerous climate model simulations with limited computational resources.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},
	author = {Pierce, David W. and Cayan, Daniel R. and Thrasher, Bridget L.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2014},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Journal of Hydrometeorology},
	pages = {2558--2585},
}

@article{hyndman_sample_1996,
	title = {Sample {Quantiles} in {Statistical} {Packages}},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0003-1305},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00031305.1996.10473566},
	doi = {10.1080/00031305.1996.10473566},
	abstract = {There are a large number of different definitions used for sample quantiles in statistical computer packages. Often within the same package one definition will be used to compute a quantile explicitly, while other definitions may be used when producing a boxplot, a probability plot, or a QQ plot. We compare the most commonly implemented sample quantile definitions by writing them in a common notation and investigating their motivation and some of their properties. We argue that there is a need to adopt a standard definition for sample quantiles so that the same answers are produced by different packages and within each package. We conclude by recommending that the median-unbiased estimator be used because it has most of the desirable properties of a quantile estimator and can be defined independently of the underlying distribution.},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {The American Statistician},
	author = {Hyndman, Rob J. and Fan, Yanan},
	month = nov,
	year = {1996},
	note = {Publisher: Taylor \& Francis
\_eprint: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00031305.1996.10473566},
	keywords = {Percentiles, Quartiles, Sample quantiles, Statistical computer packages.},
	pages = {361--365},
}

@article{zhang_avoiding_2005,
	title = {Avoiding {Inhomogeneity} in {Percentile}-{Based} {Indices} of {Temperature} {Extremes}},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {0894-8755, 1520-0442},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/18/11/jcli3366.1.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI3366.1},
	abstract = {Abstract Using a Monte Carlo simulation, it is demonstrated that percentile-based temperature indices computed for climate change detection and monitoring may contain artificial discontinuities at the beginning and end of the period that is used for calculating the percentiles (base period). This would make these exceedance frequency time series unsuitable for monitoring and detecting climate change. The problem occurs because the threshold calculated in the base period is affected by sampling error. On average, this error leads to overestimated exceedance rates outside the base period. A bootstrap resampling procedure is proposed to estimate exceedance frequencies during the base period. The procedure effectively removes the inhomogeneity.},
	language = {EN},
	number = {11},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {Journal of Climate},
	author = {Zhang, Xuebin and Hegerl, Gabriele and Zwiers, Francis W. and Kenyon, Jesse},
	month = jun,
	year = {2005},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Journal of Climate},
	pages = {1641--1651},
}

@book{bohren_atmospheric_1998,
	title = {Atmospheric {Thermodynamics}},
	isbn = {978-0-19-509904-1},
	abstract = {This comprehensive text is based on the authors' course notes, refined and updated over 15 years of teaching. The core of the text focuses on water and its transformations. Four chapters lay the foundation, from energy conservation to the ideal gas law, specific heat capacities, adiabaticprocesses, and entropy. An extensive chapter treats phase transitions of water, and a lengthy discussion of the van der Waals equation sets the stage for phase diagrams. Free energy is applied to determining the effect of dissolved substances, total pressure, and size on vapor pressure. The chapteron moist air and clouds discusses wet-bulb and virtual temperatures, isentropic ascent of saturated air, thermodynamic diagrams, stability, and cloud formation. The final chapter covers energy, momentum, and mass transfer, topics not usually considered part of thermodynamics. Measurements areincluded and experiments and observations are suggested, all with the aim of breathing life into equations. The authors are careful to recognize and unafraid to criticize the treatments of thermodynamics that have been unchanged for more than a hundred years.Atmospheric Thermodynamics contains over 200 exercises, mostly applications of basic principles to concrete problems. Often inspired by inquisitive students and colleagues, the exercises cover everything from automobiles and airplanes to baseball, wind turbines, and ground hogs. The authors weavehistory into the text by drawing on original writings rather than using textbook anecdotes, and molecular interpretations are given wherever possible. Assumptions and approximations are carefully laid out, derivations are detailed, and equations are interpreted physically and applied. No previousknowledge of thermodynamics or kinetic theory is assumed, although students are expected to be well-grounded in calculus, differential equations, vector analysis, and classical mechanics.},
	language = {en},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Bohren, Craig F. and Albrecht, Bruce A.},
	year = {1998},
	note = {Google-Books-ID: SSJJ\_RWJGe8C},
	keywords = {Science / Earth Sciences / Meteorology \& Climatology},
}

@article{lawrence_relationship_2005,
	title = {The {Relationship} between {Relative} {Humidity} and the {Dewpoint} {Temperature} in {Moist} {Air}: {A} {Simple} {Conversion} and {Applications}},
	volume = {86},
	issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477},
	shorttitle = {The {Relationship} between {Relative} {Humidity} and the {Dewpoint} {Temperature} in {Moist} {Air}},
	url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/86/2/bams-86-2-225.xml},
	doi = {10.1175/BAMS-86-2-225},
	abstract = {The relative humidity (RH) and the dewpoint temperature (td) are two widely used indicators of the amount of moisture in air. The exact conversion from RH to td, as well as highly accurate approximations, are too complex to be done easily without the help of a calculator or computer. However, there is a very simple rule of thumb that can be very useful for approximating the conversion for moist air (RH {\textgreater} 50\%), which does not appear to be widely known by the meteorological community: td decreases by about 1°C for every 5\% decrease in RH (starting at td= t, the dry bulb temperature, when RH = 100\%). This article examines the mathematical basis and accuracy of this and other relationships between the dewpoint and relative humidity. Several useful applications of the simple conversion are presented, in particular the computation of the cumulus cloud-base level (or lifting condensation level) as zLCL {\textgreater}{\textgreater} (20 + t/5)(100 – RH), where zLCL is in meters when t is in degrees Celcius and RH in percent. Finally, a historical perspective is given with anecdotes about some of the early work in this field.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
	author = {Lawrence, Mark G.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2005},
	note = {Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Section: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
	pages = {225--234},
}

@book{world_meteorological_organization_guide_2008,
	address = {Geneva, Switzerland},
	title = {Guide to meteorological instruments and methods of observation.},
	isbn = {978-92-63-10008-5},
	abstract = {This guide lays down the basic standards of instrument and observing practices required by present-day international meteorology and provides the basis for the preparation by individual Meteorological Services of detailed instrument manuals for use by observers.--Publisher's description.},
	language = {en},
	publisher = {World Meteorological Organization},
	author = {{World Meteorological Organization}},
	year = {2008},
	note = {OCLC: 288915903},
}


@misc{melton_atmosphericvarscalcf90_2019,
	title = {{atmosphericVarsCalc}.f90},
	url = {https://gitlab.com/cccma/classic/-/blob/master/src/atmosphericVarsCalc.f90},
	abstract = {The Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC) is the land surface component of the CanESM. CLASSIC's component models are the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) \&amp;...},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {GitLab},
	author = {Melton, Joe},
	month = oct,
	year = {2019},
}

@misc{verseghy_class_2009,
	title = {{CLASS} – {The} {Canadian} {Land} {Surface} {Scheme} ({Version} 3.4), {Technical} {Documentation}},
	url = {https://wiki.usask.ca/download/attachments/223019286/CLASS_v3.6_Documentation.pdf?version=1&modificationDate=1478106693000&api=v2},
	publisher = {Environment Canada, Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch},
	author = {Verseghy, Diana},
	year = {2009},
	note = {Version 1.1},
}

@article{katsavounidis_new_1994,
	title = {A new initialization technique for generalized {Lloyd} iteration},
	volume = {1},
	issn = {1558-2361},
	url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/329844/},
	abstract = {The generalized Lloyd algorithm plays an important role in the design of vector quantizers (VQ) and in feature clustering for pattern recognition. In the VQ context, this algorithm provides a procedure to iteratively improve a codebook and results in a local minimum that minimizes the average distortion function. We propose an efficient method to obtain a good initial codebook that can accelerate the convergence of the generalized Lloyd algorithm and achieve a better local minimum as well.{\textless}{\textgreater}},
	number = {10},
	journal = {IEEE Signal Processing Letters},
	author = {Katsavounidis, I. and Jay Kuo, C.-C. and Zhang, Zhen},
	month = oct,
	year = {1994},
	note = {Conference Name: IEEE Signal Processing Letters},
	keywords = {Acceleration, Algorithm design and analysis, Convergence, Distortion measurement, Image coding, Iterative algorithms, Partitioning algorithms, Pattern recognition, Product codes, Signal processing algorithms},
	pages = {144--146},
}

@misc{lopker_yamale_2022,
	title = {Yamale (ya·ma·lē)},
	copyright = {MIT},
	url = {https://github.com/23andMe/Yamale},
	abstract = {A schema and validator for YAML.},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	publisher = {23andMe},
	author = {Lopker, Bo},
	month = aug,
	year = {2022},
	note = {original-date: 2014-01-27T09:30:25Z},
	keywords = {python, schema, yaml},
}

@article{zhang_indices_2011,
	title = {Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {1757-7799},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.147},
	doi = {10.1002/wcc.147},
	abstract = {Indices for climate variability and extremes have been used for a long time, often by assessing days with temperature or precipitation observations above or below specific physically-based thresholds. While these indices provided insight into local conditions, few physically based thresholds have relevance in all parts of the world. Therefore, indices of extremes evolved over time and now often focus on relative thresholds that describe features in the tails of the distributions of meteorological variables. In order to help understand how extremes are changing globally, a subset of the wide range of possible indices is now being coordinated internationally which allows the results of studies from different parts of the world to fit together seamlessly. This paper reviews these as well as other indices of extremes and documents the obstacles to robustly calculating and analyzing indices and the methods developed to overcome these obstacles. Gridding indices are necessary in order to compare observations with climate model output. However, gridding indices from daily data are not always straightforward because averaging daily information from many stations tends to dampen gridded extremes. The paper describes recent progress in attribution of the changes in gridded indices of extremes that demonstrates human influence on the probability of extremes. The paper also describes model projections of the future and wraps up with a discussion of ongoing efforts to refine indices of extremes as they are being readied to contribute to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:851–870. doi: 10.1002/wcc.147 This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends {\textgreater} Modern Climate Change},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
	author = {Zhang, Xuebin and Alexander, Lisa and Hegerl, Gabriele C. and Jones, Philip and Tank, Albert Klein and Peterson, Thomas C. and Trewin, Blair and Zwiers, Francis W.},
	year = {2011},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.147},
	pages = {851--870},
}

@misc{wikipedia_contributors_growing_2021,
	title = {Growing degree-day},
	copyright = {Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License},
	url = {https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Growing_degree-day&oldid=1062329362},
	abstract = {Growing degree days (GDD), also called growing degree units (GDUs), are a heuristic tool in phenology. GDD are a measure of heat accumulation used by horticulturists, gardeners, and farmers to predict plant and animal development rates such as the date that a flower will bloom, an insect will emerge from dormancy, or a crop will reach maturity.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-03},
	journal = {Wikipedia},
	author = {{Wikipedia Contributors}},
	month = dec,
	year = {2021},
	note = {Page Version ID: 1062329362}
}

@misc{gramfort_lowess_2015,
	title = {{LOWESS} : {Locally} weighted regression},
	copyright = {BSD 3-Clause},
	shorttitle = {{LOWESS}},
	url = {https://gist.github.com/agramfort/850437},
	abstract = {LOWESS : Locally weighted regression. GitHub Gist: instantly share code, notes, and snippets.},
	urldate = {2022-08-05},
	author = {Gramfort, Alexandre},
	month = oct,
	year = {2015},
}

@article{sirangelo_combining_2020,
	title = {Combining stochastic models of air temperature and vapour pressure for the analysis of the bioclimatic comfort through the {Humidex}},
	volume = {10},
	copyright = {2020 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2045-2322},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-68297-4},
	doi = {10.1038/s41598-020-68297-4},
	abstract = {Several studies evidenced the importance of the knowledge of the bioclimatic comfort for improving people’s quality of life. Temperature and relative humidity are the main variables related to climatic comfort/discomfort, influencing the environmental stress in the human body. In this study, a stochastic approach is proposed for characterizing the bioclimatic conditions through the Humidex values in six sites of Calabria (southern Italy), a region often hit by heat waves in summer months. The stochastic approach is essential, because the available time series of temperature and relative humidity are not long enough and present several missing values. The model allowed the characterization of sequences of extreme values of the Humidex. Results showed different behaviours between inner and coastal stations. For example, a sequence of 20 consecutive days with maximum daily Humidex values greater than 35 has a return period ranging from 10 to 20 years for the inner stations, while it exceeds 100 years for the coastal ones. The maximum yearly Humidex values for the inner stations have a larger range (40–50) than the coastal ones (38–45), reaching higher occurrence probabilities of serious danger conditions. Besides, the different influence of temperature and relative humidity on the Humidex behaviour has been evidenced.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2022-08-08},
	journal = {Scientific Reports},
	author = {Sirangelo, Beniamino and Caloiero, Tommaso and Coscarelli, Roberto and Ferrari, Ennio and Fusto, Francesco},
	month = jul,
	year = {2020},
	note = {Number: 1
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Hydrology, Natural hazards},
	pages = {11395},
}

@book{masterton_humidex_1979,
	address = {Downsview, Ontario, Canada},
	series = {{CLI}},
	title = {Humidex : a {Method} of {Quantifying} {Human} {Discomfort} {Due} to {Excessive} {Heat} and {Humidity}},
	shorttitle = {Humidex},
	language = {en},
	publisher = {Environment Canada, Atmospheric Environment},
	author = {Masterton, J. M. and Richardson, F. A.},
	year = {1979},
	note = {Google-Books-ID: qzPbOAAACAAJ},
}

@misc{canada_glossary_2011,
	title = {Glossary - {Climate} - {Environment} and {Climate} {Change} {Canada}},
	url = {https://climate.weather.gc.ca/glossary_e.html},
	abstract = {Glossary of the Climate data web site, which is a gateway to information on matters such as past weather, climate normals, historical radar, almanac averages and extremes, and engineering climate data. Past weather data includes: temperature, snow, snow on ground, precipitation, rain, wind speed and direction, heating and cooling degree days, visibility, and relative humidity, humidex and wind chill in Canada.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-08},
	author = {Canada, Environment {and} Climate Change},
	month = oct,
	year = {2011},
	note = {Last Modified: 2022-05-25},
}

@article{blazejczyk_comparison_2012,
	title = {Comparison of {UTCI} to selected thermal indices},
	volume = {56},
	issn = {1432-1254},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0453-2},
	doi = {10.1007/s00484-011-0453-2},
	abstract = {Over the past century more than 100 indices have been developed and used to assess bioclimatic conditions for human beings. The majority of these indices are used sporadically or for specific purposes. Some are based on generalized results of measurements (wind chill, cooling power, wet bulb temperature) and some on the empirically observed reactions of the human body to thermal stress (physiological strain, effective temperature). Those indices that are based on human heat balance considerations are referred to as "rational indices". Several simple human heat balance models are known and are used in research and practice. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the newly developed Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), and some of the more prevalent thermal indices. The analysis is based on three groups of data: global data-set, synoptic datasets from Europe, and local scale data from special measurement campaigns of COST Action 730. We found the present indices to express bioclimatic conditions reasonably only under specific meteorological situations, while the UTCI represents specific climates, weather, and locations much better. Furthermore, similar to the human body, the UTCI is very sensitive to changes in ambient stimuli: temperature, solar radiation, wind and humidity. UTCI depicts temporal variability of thermal conditions better than other indices. The UTCI scale is able to express even slight differences in the intensity of meteorological stimuli.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-08-08},
	journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
	author = {Blazejczyk, Krzysztof and Epstein, Yoram and Jendritzky, Gerd and Staiger, Henning and Tinz, Birger},
	month = may,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Bioclimatic indices, Heat stress, Meteorological variables, Microclimatic differentiation, Synoptic data, UTCI},
	pages = {515--535},
}

@inproceedings{goff_low-pressure_1946,
	address = {New York, NY},
	series = {The 52nd annual meeting of the {American} {Society} of {Heating} and {Ventilating} {Engineers}},
	title = {Low-pressure properties of water from -160 to 212 °{F}},
	language = {en},
	booktitle = {Transactions of the {American} {Society} of {Heating} and {Ventilating} {Engineers}},
	author = {Goff, J. A. and Gratch, S.},
	year = {1946},
	pages = {95--122},
}

@misc{vomel_saturation_2016,
	title = {Saturation vapoor pressure formulations},
	url = {https://cires1.colorado.edu/~voemel/vp.html},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2022-08-08},
	journal = {Water Vapor Pressure Formulations},
	author = {Vömel, Holger},
	month = dec,
	year = {2016},
}

@article{tetens_uber_1930,
	title = {Über einige meteorologische {Begriffe}},
	volume = {6},
	language = {de},
	journal = {Zeitschrift für Geophysik},
	author = {Tetens, Otto},
	year = {1930},
	note = {Google-Books-ID: ey5UtAEACAAJ},
	pages = {297--309},
}

@article{sonntag_important_1990,
	title = {Important new values of the physical constants of 1986, vapour pressure formulations based on the {ITS}-90, and psychrometer formulae},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {0084-5361},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Zeitschrift für Meteorologie},
	author = {SONNTAG, D},
	year = {1990},
	note = {Place: Berlin
Publisher: Akademie-Verlag},
	pages = {340--344},
}

@inproceedings{hardy_its-90_1998,
	title = {{ITS}-90 {FORMULATIONS} {FOR} {VAPOR} {PRESSURE}, {FROSTPOINT} {TEMPERATURE}, {DEWPOINT} {TEMPERATURE}, {AND} {ENHANCEMENT} {FACTORS} {IN} {THE} {RANGE} –100 {TO} +100 {C}},
	url = {https://www.thunderscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/its90formulas.pdf},
	abstract = {With the change in the temperature scale of ITS-90, new temperature dependent equations were required which predict saturation vapor pressure over water and ice, enhancement factor over water and ice, frostpoint temperature, and dewpoint temperature. Internationally recognized formulas based on the previous temperature scale, viewed as selfconsistent data sets for vapor pressures and enhancement factors, were chosen as initial defining equations. These formulas, coupled with those defining the temperature difference between the two scales, were used to compute new data sets consistent with the temperature scale of ITS-90. These new data sets were then fitted to equations of the original form, yielding new ITS-90 compatible coefficients to the familiar vapor pressure and enhancement factor equations. In addition, the resulting vapor pressure equations were used to produce a set of inverse approximating equations to yield frostpoint and dewpoint temperatures when the vapor pressure is known. The resulting coefficients, equations, and the conversion methods that produced them are presented.},
	language = {en},
	booktitle = {The {Proceedings} of the {Third} {International} {Symposium} on {Humidity} \& {Moisture}},
	author = {Hardy, Bob},
	year = {1998},
	pages = {1--8},
}

@article{veloz_identifying_2012,
	title = {Identifying climatic analogs for {Wisconsin} under 21st-century climate-change scenarios},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {1573-1480},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0261-z},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0261-z},
	abstract = {There is a deep disconnect between scientific and public concern about climate change. One reason is that global climate change is a fairly abstract concept with little perceived relevance, so a key challenge is to translate climate-change projections into locally concrete examples of potential impacts. Here we use climate analog analyses as an alternative method for identifying and communicating climate-change impacts. Our analysis uses multiple downscaled general circulation models for the state of Wisconsin, at 0.1 decimal degree resolution, and identifies contemporary locations in North America that are the most similar to the projected future climates for Wisconsin. We assess the uncertainties inherent in climate-change projections among greenhouse gas emission scenarios, time windows (mid-21st century vs. late 21st-century) and different combinations of climate variables. For all future scenarios and simulations, contemporary climatic analogs within North America were found for Wisconsin’s future climate. Closest analogs are primarily 200–500 km to the south-southwest of their Wisconsin reference location. Temperature has the largest effect on choice of climatic analog, but precipitation is the greatest source of uncertainty. Under the higher-end emission scenarios, the contemporary climatic analogs for Wisconsin’s end-21st-century climates are almost entirely outside the state. Climate-analog analyses offer a place-based means of assessing climate impacts that is complementary to the species-based approaches of species distributional models, and carries no assumptions about the characterization and conservatism of species niches. The analog method is simple and flexible, and can be readily extended to other regions and other environmental variables.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2022-08-08},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Veloz, Samuel and Williams, John W. and Lorenz, David and Notaro, Michael and Vavrus, Steve and Vimont, Daniel J.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {Climate Projection, Emission Scenario, Future Climate, General Circulation Model, Reference Location},
	pages = {1037--1058},
}

@article{henze_multivariate_1988,
	title = {A {Multivariate} {Two}-{Sample} {Test} {Based} on the {Number} of {Nearest} {Neighbor} {Type} {Coincidences}},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {0090-5364, 2168-8966},
	url = {https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-statistics/volume-16/issue-2/A-Multivariate-Two-Sample-Test-Based-on-the-Number-of/10.1214/aos/1176350835.full},
	doi = {10.1214/aos/1176350835},
	abstract = {For independent \$d\$-variate random samples \$X\_1, {\textbackslash}cdots, X\_\{n\_1\}\$ i.i.d. \$f(x), Y\_1, {\textbackslash}cdots, Y\_\{n\_2\}\$ i.i.d. \$g(x)\$, where the densities \$f\$ and \$g\$ are assumed to be continuous a.e., consider the number \$T\$ of all \$k\$ nearest neighbor comparisons in which observations and their neighbors belong to the same sample. We show that, if \$f = g\$ a.e., the limiting (normal) distribution of \$T\$, as \${\textbackslash}min(n\_1, n\_2) {\textbackslash}rightarrow {\textbackslash}infty, n\_1/(n\_1 + n\_2) {\textbackslash}rightarrow {\textbackslash}tau, 0 {\textless} {\textbackslash}tau {\textless} 1\$, does not depend on \$f\$. An omnibus procedure for testing the hypothesis \$H\_0: f = g\$ a.e. is obtained by rejecting \$H\_0\$ for large values of \$T\$. The result applies to a general distance (generated by a norm on \${\textbackslash}mathbb\{R\}{\textasciicircum}d\$) for determining nearest neighbors, and it generalizes to the multisample situation.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-08-08},
	journal = {The Annals of Statistics},
	author = {Henze, Norbert},
	month = jun,
	year = {1988},
	note = {Publisher: Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
	keywords = {62G10, 62H15, Multivariate two-sample test, nearest neighbor-type coincidences},
	pages = {772--783},
}

@techreport{bootsma_risk_1999,
	address = {Ottawa, Ontario},
	type = {Monographe},
	title = {Risk analyses of heat units available for corn and soybean production in {Quebec}},
	url = {https://publications.gc.ca/pub?id=9.647569&sl=0},
	abstract = {The results of this study should provide a useful basis for making decisions with respect to the selection of corn hybrids and soybean varieties which are best adapted to each region. The information on risk or probability levels will help to assess the probability that corn hybrids of a specified maturity (CHU) rating will reach an acceptable level of maturity before killing frost},
	language = {en;fr},
	number = {Technical Bulletin No. 991396},
	urldate = {2022-08-11},
	institution = {Eastern Cereal and Oilseed Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada},
	author = {Bootsma, Andrew and Tremblay,, Gilles and Filion, Pierre},
	year = {1999},
	pages = {127},
}

@article{finkele_2006,
  title={National gridded drought factors and comparison of two soil moisture deficit formulations used in prediction of Forest Fire Danger Index in Australia},
  author={Finkele, Klara and Mills, Graham A and Beard, Grant and Jones, David A},
  journal={Australian Meteorological Magazine},
  volume={55},
  language = {en},
  number={3},
  pages={183--197},
  year={2006},
  publisher={Citeseer}
}

@book{keetch_1968,
  title={A drought index for forest fire control},
  author={Keetch, John James and Byram, George Marsden},
  volume={38},
  language = {en},
  year={1968},
  publisher={US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment~…}
}

@article{holgate_2017,
  title={Using alternative soil moisture estimates in the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index},
  author={Holgate, Chiara M and Van DIjk, Albert IJM and Cary, Geoffrey J and Yebra, Marta},
  journal={International Journal of Wildland Fire},
  volume={26},
  language = {en},
  number={9},
  pages={806--819},
  year={2017},
  publisher={CSIRO Publishing}
}

@article{dolling_2005,
  title={A climatological study of the Keetch/Byram drought index and fire activity in the Hawaiian Islands},
  author={Dolling, Klaus and Chu, Pao-Shin and Fujioka, Francis},
  journal={Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  volume={133},
  language = {en},
  number={1-4},
  pages={17--27},
  year={2005},
  publisher={Elsevier}
}

@article{griffiths_1999,
  title={Improved formula for the drought factor in McArthur's Forest Fire Danger Meter},
  author={Griffiths, Deryn},
  journal={Australian Forestry},
  volume={62},
  language = {en},
  number={2},
  pages={202--206},
  year={1999},
  publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}

@article{noble_1980,
  title={McArthur's fire-danger meters expressed as equations},
  author={Noble, IR and Gill, AM and Bary, GAV},
  journal={Australian Journal of Ecology},
  volume={5},
  language = {en},
  number={2},
  pages={201--203},
  year={1980},
  publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}

@article{dowdy_2018,
  title={Climatological variability of fire weather in Australia},
  author={Dowdy, Andrew J},
  journal={Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
  volume={57},
  language = {en},
  number={2},
  pages={221--234},
  year={2018}
}

@techreport{allen_crop_1998,
	address = {Rome, Italy},
	type = {{FAO} {Irrigation} and {Drainage} {Paper}},
	title = {Crop evapotranspiration: {Guidelines} for computing crop water requirements},
	url = {https://www.unirc.it/documentazione/materiale_didattico/1462_2016_412_24101.pdf},
	language = {en},
	number = {56},
	urldate = {2022-08-19},
	institution = {FAO},
	author = {Allen, Richard G. and Pereira, Luis S. and Raes, Dirk and Smith, Martin},
	year = {1998},
	pages = {326}
}

@book{perrin_estimation_1975,
	title = {Estimation {Des} {Ressources} {Energetiques} {Solaires} en {France}},
	language = {fr},
	publisher = {Association francaise pour l'etude et le developpement des applications de l'energie solaire},
	author = {Perrin, De Brichambaut C.},
	year = {1975},
}

@techreport{riou_determinisme_1994,
	type = {report},
	title = {Le déterminisme climatique de la maturation du raisin : application au zonage de la teneur en sucre dans la {Communauté} {Européenne}},
	shorttitle = {Le déterminisme climatique de la maturation du raisin},
	url = {https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02843898},
	language = {fr},
	urldate = {2022-11-10},
	institution = {Commission Européenne},
	author = {Riou, C.},
	year = {1994},
}

@article{roy_extremeprecip_2023,
	title = {Climate scenarios of extreme precipitation using a combination of parametric and non-parametric bias correction methods in the province of Québec},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07011784.2023.2220682},
	doi = {10.1080/07011784.2023.2220682},
	language = {English},
	journal = {Canadian Water Resources Journal},
	author = {Roy, Philippe and Rondeau-Genesse, Gabriel and Jalbert, Jonathan and Fournier, Élyse},
	month = {june},
	year = {2023},
}

@article{francois_multivariate_2020,
	title = {Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: which benefits for which losses?},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {2190-4979},
	shorttitle = {Multivariate bias corrections of climate simulations},
	url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/537/2020/},
	doi = {10.5194/esd-11-537-2020},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
	author = {François, Bastien and Vrac, Mathieu and Cannon, Alex J. and Robin, Yoann and Allard, Denis},
	month = jun,
	year = {2020},
	note = {Publisher: Copernicus GmbH},
	pages = {537--562},
}

@article{vrac_multivariate_2018,
	title = {Multivariate bias adjustment of high-dimensional climate simulations: the {Rank} {Resampling} for {Distributions} and {Dependences} ({R2D2}) bias correction},
	shorttitle = {Multivariate bias adjustment of high-dimensional climate simulations},
	doi = {10.5194/HESS-22-3175-2018},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	author = {Vrac, M.},
	year = {2018},
}

@article{yip_2011,
abstract = {A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multimodel climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal variability. This approach requires fewer assumptions than existing methods and can be easily used to quantify uncertainty related to model–scenario interaction—the contribution to model uncertainty arising from the variation across scenarios of model deviations from the ensemble mean. Uncertainty in global mean surface air temperature is quantified as a function of lead time for a subset of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble and results largely agree with those published by other authors: scenario uncertainty dominates beyond 2050 and internal variability remains approximately constant over the twenty-first century. Both elements of model uncertainty, due to scenario-independent and scenario-dependent deviations from the ensemble mean, are found to increase with time. Estimates of model deviations that arise as by-products of the framework reveal significant differences between models that could lead to a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in multimodel ensembles. For example, three models show a diverging pattern over the twenty-first century, while another model exhibits an unusually large variation among its scenario-dependent deviations.},
author = {Yip, Stan and Ferro, Christopher A. T. and Stephenson, David B. and Hawkins, Ed},
doi = {10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {sep},
number = {17},
pages = {4634--4643},
title = {{A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2011JCLI4085.1},
volume = {24},
year = {2011}
}

@article{northrop_2014,
abstract = {A simple statistical model is used to partition uncertainty from different sources, in projections of future climate from multimodel ensembles. Three major sources of uncertainty are considered: the choice of climate model, the choice of emissions scenario, and the internal variability of the modeled climate system. The relative contributions of these sources are quantified for mid- and late-twenty-first-century climate projections, using data from 23 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models obtained from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similar investigations have been carried out recently by other authors but within a statistical framework for which the unbalanced nature of the data and the small number (three) of scenarios involved are potentially problematic. Here, a Bayesian analysis is used to overcome these difficulties. Global and regional analyses of surface air temperature and precipitation are performed. It is found that the relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the climate variable considered, as well as the region and time horizon. As expected, the uncertainty due to the choice of emissions scenario becomes more important toward the end of the twenty-first century. However, for midcentury temperature, model internal variability makes a large contribution in high-latitude regions. For midcentury precipitation, model internal variability is even more important and this persists in some regions into the late century. Implications for the design of climate model experiments are discussed.},
author = {Northrop, Paul J. and Chandler, Richard E.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00265.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {dec},
number = {23},
pages = {8793--8808},
title = {{Quantifying Sources of Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate*}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00265.1},
volume = {27},
year = {2014}
}

@article{goldenson_2018,
author = {Goldenson, N. and Mauger, G. and Leung, L. R. and Bitz, C. M. and Rhines, A.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076297},
issn = {0094-8276},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
month = {jan},
number = {2},
pages = {926--934},
title = {{Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties}},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076297},
volume = {45},
year = {2018}
}

@article{lehner_2020,
author = {Lehner, Flavio and Deser, Clara and Maher, Nicola and Marotzke, Jochem and Fischer, Erich M. and Brunner, Lukas and Knutti, Reto and Hawkins, Ed},
doi = {10.5194/esd-11-491-2020},
issn = {2190-4987},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics},
month = {may},
number = {2},
pages = {491--508},
title = {{Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6}},
url = {https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/491/2020/},
volume = {11},
year = {2020}
}

@article{evin_2019,
abstract = {The quantification of uncertainty sources in ensembles of climate projections obtained from combinations of different scenarios and climate and impact models is a key issue in climate impact studies. The small size of the ensembles of simulation chains and their incomplete sampling of scenario and climate model combinations makes the analysis difficult. In the popular single-time ANOVA approach for instance, a precise estimate of internal variability requires multiple members for each simulation chain (e.g., each emission scenario–climate model combination), but multiple members are typically available for a few chains only. In most ensembles also, a precise partition of model uncertainty components is not possible because the matrix of available scenario/models combinations is incomplete (i.e., projections are missing for many scenario–model combinations). The method we present here, based on data augmentation and Bayesian techniques, overcomes such limitations and makes the statistical analysis possible for single-member and incomplete ensembles. It provides unbiased estimates of climate change responses of all simulation chains and of all uncertainty variables. It additionally propagates uncertainty due to missing information in the estimates. This approach is illustrated for projections of regional precipitation and temperature for four mountain massifs in France. It is applicable for any kind of ensemble of climate projections, including those produced from ad hoc impact models.},
author = {Evin, Guillaume and Hingray, Benoit and Blanchet, Juliette and Eckert, Nicolas and Morin, Samuel and Verfaillie, Deborah},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0606.1},
issn = {0894-8755},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2423--2440},
title = {{Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0606.1},
volume = {32},
year = {2019}
}

@article{hawkins_2009,
author = {Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan},
doi = {10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1},
issn = {0003-0007},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
month = {aug},
number = {8},
pages = {1095--1108},
title = {{The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions}},
url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1},
volume = {90},
year = {2009}
}

@article{hawkins_2011,
author = {Hawkins, Ed and Sutton, Rowan},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6},
issn = {0930-7575},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
month = {jul},
number = {1-2},
pages = {407--418},
title = {{The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change}},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6},
volume = {37},
year = {2011}
}

@article{sivakumar_predicting_1998,
title = {Predicting rainy season potential from the onset of rains in Southern Sahelian and Sudanian climatic zones of West Africa},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
volume = {42},
number = {4},
pages = {295-305},
year = {1988},
issn = {0168-1923},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(88)90039-1},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0168192388900391},
author = {Sivakumar, M.V.K.},
abstract = {Analysis of long-term daily rainfall data for 58 locations in the Southern Sahelian and Sudanian climatic zones of West Africa showed that a significant relationship exists between the date of onset of rains and the length of the growing season. Early onset of rains, relative to the computed mean date of onset for a given location, resulted in a longer growing season. Probabilities of growing season lengths for early, normal and delayed onset of rains have been computed for all the locations. This analysis has important applications in crop planning as well as disaster planning and forms an initial step in concepts such as “Response Farming” or “Weather-responsive Crop Management Tactics” for drought-prone West Africa.},
}

@article {sturm_swe_2010,
      author = "Matthew  Sturm and Brian  Taras and Glen E.  Liston and Chris  Derksen and Tobias  Jonas and Jon  Lea",
      title = "Estimating Snow Water Equivalent Using Snow Depth Data and Climate Classes",
      journal = "Journal of Hydrometeorology",
      year = "2010",
      publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
      address = "Boston MA, USA",
      volume = "11",
      number = "6",
      doi = "10.1175/2010JHM1202.1",
      pages = "1380 - 1394",
      url = "https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/11/6/2010jhm1202_1.xml"
}

@article {frei_snowfall_2018,
    author = {Frei, P. and Kotlarski, S. and Liniger, M. A. and Schär, C.},
    title = {Future snowfall in the Alps: projections based on the EURO-CORDEX regional climate models},
    journal = {The Cryosphere},
    volume = {12},
    year = {2018},
    number = {1},
    pages = {1--24},
    url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/12/1/2018/},
    doi = {10.5194/tc-12-1-2018}
}

@article{dawson_plant_1991,
	title = {Plant {Hardiness} {Zones} for {Australia}},
	volume = {89},
	url = {https://www.cpbr.gov.au/gardens/research/hort.research/zones.html},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2023-06-16},
	journal = {Australian Horticulture},
	author = {Dawson, Iain A.},
	year = {1991},
	pages = {37 -- 39},
}


@misc{usda_2012,
	title = {{USDA} {Plant} {Hardiness} {Zone} {Map}},
	url = {https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/},
	abstract = {The 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map allows gardeners and growers to determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature, divided into 10-degree F zones.},
	language = {en-ca},
	urldate = {2023-06-16},
	author = {{USDA Agricultural Research Service}},
	year = {2012},
}

@article{chen_2020,
title = {Impacts of climate change on wind resources over North America based on NA-CORDEX},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
volume = {153},
pages = {1428-1438},
year = {2020},
issn = {0960-1481},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.02.090},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148120302858},
author = {Liang Chen},
keywords = {Climate change, Wind energy, NA-CORDEX, North America}
}

@article{tobin_2018,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab211},
url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab211},
year = {2018},
month = {apr},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
volume = {13},
number = {4},
pages = {044024},
author = {I Tobin and W Greuell and S Jerez and F Ludwig and R Vautard and M T H van Vliet and F-M Bréon},
title = {Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C warming},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters}
}


@inbook{
ipccatlas_ar6wg1,
place={Cambridge},
title={Atlas},
DOI={10.1017/9781009157896.021},
booktitle={Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change},
publisher={Cambridge University Press},
author={Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)},
year={2023},
pages={1927–2058}
}

@article{Lafferty2023,
   abstract = {Efforts to diagnose the risks of a changing climate often rely on downscaled and bias-corrected climate information, making it important to understand the uncertainties and potential biases of this approach. Here, we perform a variance decomposition to partition uncertainty in global climate projections and quantify the relative importance of downscaling and bias-correction. We analyze simple climate metrics such as annual temperature and precipitation averages, as well as several indices of climate extremes. We find that downscaling and bias-correction often contribute substantial uncertainty to local decision-relevant climate outcomes, though our results are strongly heterogeneous across space, time, and climate metrics. Our results can provide guidance to impact modelers and decision-makers regarding the uncertainties associated with downscaling and bias-correction when performing local-scale analyses, as neglecting to account for these uncertainties may risk overconfidence relative to the full range of possible climate futures.},
   author = {David C. Lafferty and Ryan L. Sriver},
   doi = {10.1038/s41612-023-00486-0},
   issn = {2397-3722},
   issue = {1},
   journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2023 6:1},
   keywords = {Atmospheric science,Climate,Climate and Earth system modelling,Projection and prediction,change impacts},
   month = {9},
   pages = {1-13},
   publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
   title = {Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6},
   volume = {6},
   url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00486-0},
   year = {2023},
}

@article{thom_1958,
  title = {A Note on the Gamma Distribution},
  author = {Thom, H. C. S.},
  year = {1958},
  journal = {Monthly Weather Review},
  volume = {86},
  number = {4},
  pages = {117--122},
  publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}},
  issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644},
  doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(1958)086<0117:ANOTGD>2.0.CO;2},
  abstract = {Abstract The general properties of the gamma distribution, which has several applications in meteorology, are discussed. A short review of the general properties of good statistical estimators is given. This is applied to the gamma distribution to show that the maximum likelihood estimators are jointly sufficient. A new, simple approximation of the likelihood solutions is given, and the efficiency of the fitting procedure is computed.},
  chapter = {Monthly Weather Review},
}

@article{brode_utci_2012,
    author = {Bröde, Peter and Fiala, Dusan and Błażejczyk, Krzysztof and Holmér, Ingvar and Jendritzky, Gerd and Kampmann, Bernhard and Tinz, Birger and Havenith, George},
    title = {Deriving the operational procedure for the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)},
    journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
    year = {2012},
    month = {May},
    day = {01},
    volume = {56},
    number = {3},
    pages = {481-494},
    abstract = {The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) aimed for a one-dimensional quantity adequately reflecting the human physiological reaction to the multi-dimensionally defined actual outdoor thermal environment. The human reaction was simulated by the UTCI-Fiala multi-node model of human thermoregulation, which was integrated with an adaptive clothing model. Following the concept of an equivalent temperature, UTCI for a given combination of wind speed, radiation, humidity and air temperature was defined as the air temperature of the reference environment, which according to the model produces an equivalent dynamic physiological response. Operationalising this concept involved (1) the definition of a reference environment with 50{\%} relative humidity (but vapour pressure capped at 20 hPa), with calm air and radiant temperature equalling air temperature and (2) the development of a one-dimensional representation of the multivariate model output at different exposure times. The latter was achieved by principal component analyses showing that the linear combination of 7 parameters of thermophysiological strain (core, mean and facial skin temperatures, sweat production, skin wettedness, skin blood flow, shivering) after 30 and 120 min exposure time accounted for two-thirds of the total variation in the multi-dimensional dynamic physiological response. The operational procedure was completed by a scale categorising UTCI equivalent temperature values in terms of thermal stress, and by providing simplified routines for fast but sufficiently accurate calculation, which included look-up tables of pre-calculated UTCI values for a grid of all relevant combinations of climate parameters and polynomial regression equations predicting UTCI over the same grid. The analyses of the sensitivity of UTCI to humidity, radiation and wind speed showed plausible reactions in the heat as well as in the cold, and indicate that UTCI may in this regard be universally useable in the major areas of research and application in human biometeorology.},
    issn = {1432-1254},
    doi = {10.1007/s00484-011-0454-1},
    url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0454-1}
}

@article{muralidhar_1992,
  title = {A {{Simple Minimum}}-{{Bias Percentile Estimator}} of the {{Location Parameter}} for the {{Gamma}}, {{Weibull}}, and {{Log}}-{{Normal Distributions}}},
  author = {Muralidhar, Krishnamurty and Zanakis, Stelios H.},
  year = {1992},
  month = jul,
  journal = {Decision Sciences},
  volume = {23},
  number = {4},
  pages = {862--879},
  issn = {0011-7315, 1540-5915},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5915.1992.tb00423.x}
}

@article{cooke_1979,
  title = {Statistical Inference for Bounds of Random Variables},
  author = {Cooke, Peter},
  year = {1979},
  journal = {Biometrika},
  volume = {66},
  number = {2},
  pages = {367--374},
  issn = {0006-3444, 1464-3510},
  doi = {10.1093/biomet/66.2.367}
}

@article{droogers2002,
	author = {Droogers, Peter and Allen, Richard G.},
	title = {Estimating reference evapotranspiration under inaccurate data conditions},
	year = {2002},
	journal = {Irrigation and Drainage Systems},
	volume = {16},
	number = {1},
	pages = {33 – 45},
	doi = {10.1023/A:1015508322413},
	url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-0036464359&doi=10.1023%2fA%3a1015508322413&partnerID=40&md5=7322aaa4c6874878f5b1dab3c73c1718},
	type = {Article}
}

@article{addor2018,
    author = {Addor, Nans and Nearing, Grey and Prieto, Cristina and Newman, A. and Le Vine, Nataliya and Clark, Martyn},
    year = {2018},
    month = {11},
    pages = {},
    title = {A Ranking of Hydrological Signatures Based on Their Predictability in Space},
    journal = {Water Resources Research},
    doi = {10.1029/2018WR022606}
}

@article{Clausen2000,
    author = {Clausen, B and Biggs, Barry},
    year = {2000},
    month = {11},
    pages = {184-197},
    title = {Flow variables for ecological studies in temperate streams: Groupings based on covariance},
    volume = {237},
    journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
    doi = {10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00306-1}
}

@article{Olden2003,
    author = {Olden, Julian and Poff, N.},
    year = {2003},
    month = {03},
    pages = {101 - 121},
    title = {Redundancy and the Choice of Hydrologic Indices for Characterizing Stream Flow Regimes},
    volume = {19},
    journal = {River Research and Applications},
    doi = {10.1002/rra.700}
}

@article{robin_2019,
	author = {Robin, Y. and Vrac, M. and Naveau, P. and Yiou, P.},
	title = {Multivariate stochastic bias corrections with optimal transport},
	journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
	volume = {23},
	year = {2019},
	number = {2},
	pages = {773--786},
	url = {https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/23/773/2019/},
	doi = {10.5194/hess-23-773-2019}
}

@misc{robin_2021,
	title = {{SBCK}: {Statistical} {Bias} {Correction} {Kit}},
	copyright = {GPL-3},
	shorttitle = {{SBCK}},
	url = {https://github.com/yrobink/SBCK-python},
	urldate = {2024-07-03},
	author = {Robin, Yoann},
	year = {2021},
}

@article{higham_1988,
	title = {Computing a nearest symmetric positive semidefinite matrix},
	journal = {Linear Algebra and its Applications},
	volume = {103},
	pages = {103-118},
	year = {1988},
	issn = {0024-3795},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-3795(88)90223-6},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0024379588902236},
	author = {Nicholas J. Higham},
	abstract = {The nearest symmetric positive semidefinite matrix in the Frobenius norm to an arbitrary real matrix A is shown to be (B + H)/2, where H is the symmetric polar factor of B=(A + AT)/2. In the 2-norm a nearest symmetric positive semidefinite matrix, and its distance δ2(A) from A, are given by a computationally challenging formula due to Halmos. We show how the bisection method can be applied to this formula to compute upper and lower bounds for δ2(A) differing by no more than a given amount. A key ingredient is a stable and efficient test for positive definiteness, based on an attempted Choleski decomposition. For accurate computation of δ2(A) we formulate the problem as one of zero finding and apply a hybrid Newton-bisection algorithm. Some numerical difficulties are discussed and illustrated by example.}
}

@article{knol_1989,
	title = "Least-squares approximation of an improper correlation matrix by a proper one",
	abstract = "An algorithm is presented for the best least-squares fitting correlation matrix approximating a given missing value or improper correlation matrix. The proposed algorithm is based upon a solution for Mosier's oblique Procrustes rotation problem offered by ten Berge and Nevels. A necessary and sufficient condition is given for a solution to yield the unique global minimum of the least-squares function. Empirical verification of the condition indicates that the occurrence of non-optimal solutions with the proposed algorithm is very unlikely. A possible drawback of the optimal solution is that it is a singular matrix of necessity. In cases where singularity is undesirable, one may impose the additional nonsingularity constraint that the smallest eigenvalue of the solution be δ, where δ is an arbitrary small positive constant. Finally, it may be desirable to weight the squared errors of estimation differentially. A generalized solution is derived which satisfies the additional nonsingularity constraint and also allows for weighting. The generalized solution can readily be obtained from the standard “unweighted singular” solution by transforming the observed improper correlation matrix in a suitable way.",
	keywords = "Missing value correlation, indefinite correlation matrix, IR-85889, tetrachoric correlation, constrained least-squares approximation",
	author = "Knol, {Dirk L.} and {ten Berge}, {Jos M.F.}",
	year = "1989",
	doi = "10.1007/BF02294448",
	language = "Undefined",
	volume = "54",
	pages = "53--61",
	journal = "Psychometrika",
	issn = "0033-3123",
	publisher = "Springer",
	number = "1",
}

@article{luedeling_chill_2009,
	title = {Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: A review},
	journal = {Scientia Horticulturae},
	volume = {144},
	pages = {218-229},
	year = {2012},
	issn = {0304-4238},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2012.07.011},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304423812003305},
	author = {Eike Luedeling},
	keywords = {Adaptation, Chilling Hours, Chill Portions, Climate analogues, Dynamic Model, Tree dormancy},
	abstract = {Temperate fruit and nut species require exposure to chilling conditions in winter to break dormancy and produce high yields. Adequate winter chill is an important site characteristic for commercial orchard operations, and quantifying chill is crucial for orchard management. Climate change may impact winter chill. With a view to adapting orchards to climate change, this review assesses the state of knowledge in modelling winter chill and the performance of various modelling approaches. It then goes on to present assessments of past and projected future changes in winter chill for fruit growing regions and discusses potential adaptation strategies. Some of the most common approaches to modelling chill, in particular the Chilling Hours approach, are very sensitive to temperature increases, and have also been found to perform poorly, especially in warm growing regions. The Dynamic Model offers a more complex but also more accurate alternative, and use of this model is recommended. Chill changes projected with the Dynamic Model are typically much less severe than those estimated with other models. Nevertheless, projections of future chill consistently indicate substantial losses for the warmest growing regions, while temperate regions will experience relatively little change, and cold regions may even see chill increases. Growers can adapt to lower chill by introducing low-chill cultivars, by influencing orchard microclimates and by applying rest-breaking chemicals. Given substantial knowledge gaps in tree dormancy, accurate models are still a long way off. Since timely adaptation is essential for growers of long-lived high-value perennials, alternative ways of adaptation planning are needed. Climate analogues, which are present-day manifestations of future projected climates, can be used for identifying and testing future-adapted species and cultivars. Horticultural researchers and practitioners should work towards the development and widespread adoption of better chill accumulation and dormancy models, for facilitating quantitatively appropriate adaptation planning.}
}

@article{fishman_chill_1987,
	title = {The temperature dependence of dormancy breaking in plants: Mathematical analysis of a two-step model involving a cooperative transition},
	journal = {Journal of Theoretical Biology},
	volume = {124},
	number = {4},
	pages = {473-483},
	year = {1987},
	issn = {0022-5193},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5193(87)80221-7},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022519387802217},
	author = {Svetlana Fishman and A. Erez and G.A. Couvillon},
	abstract = {A two-step model describing the thermal dependence of the dormancy breaking phenomenon is developed. The model assumes that the level of dormancy completion is proportional to the amount of a certain dormancy breaking factor which accumulates in plants by a two-step process. The first step represents a reversible process of formation of a precursor for the dormancy breaking factor at low temperatures and its destruction at high temperatures. The rate constants of this process are assumed to be dependent upon the temperature according to the Arrhenius law. The second step is an irreversible cooperative transition from the unstable precursor to a stable dormancy breaking factor. The transition is assumed to occur when a critical level of the precursor is accumulated. The two-step scheme is analysed mathematically. This model explains qualitatively the main observations on dormancy completion made under controlled temperature conditions and relates the parameters of the theory to the measurable characteristics of the system.}
}

@article {richardson_chill_1974,
	author = "E. Arlo Richardson and Schuyler D. Seeley and David R. Walker",
	title = "A Model for Estimating the Completion of Rest for ‘Redhaven’ and ‘Elberta’ Peach Trees1",
	journal = "HortScience",
	year = "1974",
	publisher = "American Society for Horticultural Science",
	address = "Washington, DC",
	volume = "9",
	number = "4",
	doi = "10.21273/HORTSCI.9.4.331",
	pages=      "331 - 332",
	url = "https://journals.ashs.org/hortsci/view/journals/hortsci/9/4/article-p331.xml"
}

@article{russo_magnitude_2014,
  title = {Magnitude of Extreme Heat Waves in Present Climate and Their Projection in a Warming World},
  author = {Russo, Simone and Dosio, Alessandro and Graversen, Rune G. and Sillmann, Jana and Carrao, Hugo and Dunbar, Martha B. and Singleton, Andrew and Montagna, Paolo and Barbola, Paulo and Vogt, J{\"u}rgen V.},
  year = {2014},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
  volume = {119},
  number = {22},
  pages = {12,500--12,512},
  issn = {2169-8996},
  doi = {10.1002/2014JD022098},
  urldate = {2024-10-03},
  langid = {english},
  keywords = {climate extremes,climate indices,global models,heat waves}
}

@article{zhang_high_2022,
  title = {High {{Sensitivity}} of {{Compound Drought}} and {{Heatwave Events}} to {{Global Warming}} in the {{Future}}},
  author = {Zhang, Qin and She, Dunxian and Zhang, Liping and Wang, Gangsheng and Chen, Jie and Hao, Zengchao},
  year = {2022},
  month = nov,
  journal = {Earth's Future},
  volume = {10},
  number = {11},
  pages = {e2022EF002833},
  issn = {2328-4277, 2328-4277},
  doi = {10.1029/2022EF002833},
  urldate = {2024-10-03},
  langid = {english}
}

@article{huntington_2018,
  title = {A new indicator framework for quantifying the intensity of the terrestrial water cycle},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  volume = {559},
  pages = {361-372},
  year = {2018},
  issn = {0022-1694},
  doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.048},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169418301276},
  author = {Thomas G. Huntington and Peter K. Weiskel and David M. Wolock and Gregory J. McCabe},
  keywords = {Intensification of the water cycle, Water cycle intensity, Water-balance model, Evapotranspiration, Aridification},
}
