President Reagan and other U.S. officials marked the ninth anniversary of Soviet intervention in Afghanistan stressing that they expect Moscow to honor its commitment to complete military withdrawal by Feb. 15. Failure to meet the deadline would get Moscow ``off to a very bad start'' with President-elect Bush's incoming administration, warned Michael Armacost, the State Department's undersecretary for political affairs. The State Department also predicted Tuesday that the Afghan national army will collapse after the Soviet withdrawal is completed and that some top leaders of the Kabul government regarded by the populace as traitors might choose to flee the country. The Soviet Union sent troops into Afghanistan on Dec. 27, 1979. Western analysts say their were 110,000 to 115,000 Soviet troops in the country supporting the government against rebels armed by the United States. About half have been withdrawn. ``I fully expect them to honor their obligation to withdraw completely by Feb. 15,'' President Reagan said in a statement issued by the White House during his California vacation. But the president and other officials also voiced concern that the withdrawal has been halted and Soviet offensive military operations have resumed. ``Even today, as Feb. 15 approaches, the Soviets continue offensive military operations in Afghanistan,'' Reagan said. ``The introduction of new weapons, and the escalation in the use of Soviet warplanes in bombing raids against Afghanistan call into question the Soviet commitment to a peaceful solution.'' In a report released Tuesday on the military situation in Afghanistan, the State Department said the rebels made sizable gains this year despite the introduction of Backfire bombers and other new weapons by the Soviets. The report called the Afghan army ``demoralized force'' suffering shortages of qualified officers and manpower, despite forced conscriptions and bribes of tribal militia. ``Most experts agree that it probably can survive no more than a matter of months after a complete Soviet withdrawal,'' it said. The report also hailed talks earlier this year the Soviets had with resistance leaders without representatives of the Kabul government. ``Moscow now appears ready to explore all options that could lead to a political settlement,'' the report said.