Secretary of State George Shultz said Thursday he was confident after talks with Philippines President Corazon Aquino that American military bases will remain in that country. ``The bases are very important to the Philippines and to the United States,'' Shultz said after a speech here on his way home from a 2{-week trip through Asia and the Pacific. The United States and the Philippines are reviewing the treaty for U.S. naval and air bases in the Philippines, which expires in 1991. The Aquino government has asked the United States to pay more than $180 million a year to renew the treaty. ``I believe it will come to a successful outcome, but we're still in the process so I can't say for sure,'' Shultz said of the negotiations. ``We're getting somewhere,'' he said. ``I'm still bullish on the Philippines.'' Mrs. Aquino said last week she expects American and Filipino negotiators to complete their talks by the end of this month. The 41-year-old lease applies to Clark Air Base, Subic Naval Base and four smaller U.S. outposts. Both sides refused to reveal details of the negotiations. Shultz said the Philippines economy has improved in the two years since Mrs. Aquino took office, and that the U.S. bases and economic aid helped spur the growth. The country's growth rate after adjustment for inflation is about 7 percent this year, up from 5.5 percent last year, he said. Shultz made his comments after a speech at the East-West Center here, a research institute created by Congress and devoted to issues facing Asia and the Pacific. It was his first public appearance since returning to the United States early Wednesday from a trip to Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Hong Kong, China, South Korea, Japan and the Marshall Islands. He is to return to Washington Friday. While Shultz hailed improved relations between the United States and the Soviet Union, saying they could have a ``ripple effect'' on other adversarial nations, he said Moscow was sending confusing signals in Asia and the Pacific. ``We have to wait and see,'' he said. ``I don't see why right now is the time for the Soviet Union to supply North Korea with new surface-to-air missiles. ... What's the message?'' Both the United States and the Soviet Union have pledged to help minimize conflicts between North and South Korea during the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, South Korea in September. About 75 people waving banners that said ``Stop U.S. Intervention in Central America'' protested Shultz's appearance, yelling ``U.S.-C.I.A. out of Central America,'' as police escorted his entourage after the talk. Shultz did not mention Central America in his speech or his answers to screened questions from the invited audience of 630 people.