<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
   <title>Thomas P.M. Barnett :: Weblog</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/" />
   <link rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/atom.xml" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1</id>
   <updated>2010-03-24T13:45:04Z</updated>
   <subtitle>Senior Managing Director, Enterra Solutions
This is my personal weblog. As such, the views expressed here are my own.</subtitle>
   <generator uri="http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/">Movable Type Pro 4.31-en</generator>


<entry>
   <title>Tom speaking this Friday at Peoria Area World Affairs Council&apos;s 40th annual World Affairs Conference</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/tom_speaking_this_friday_at_pe.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11240</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T13:32:48Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T13:45:04Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Title of the conference is, &quot;The World Economy: To the Brink and Back.&quot; I appear on Friday night: FRIDAY, MARCH 26 5:00 p.m. Open Registration and Reception 5:30 p.m. Student Briefing 6:30 p.m. Banquet 7:30 p.m. Opening Keynote Address &quot;The...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[Title of the conference is, "The World Economy:  To the Brink and Back."

I appear on Friday night:

<blockquote>
FRIDAY, MARCH 26

5:00 p.m. Open Registration and Reception
5:30 p.m. Student Briefing
6:30 p.m. Banquet
7:30 p.m. Opening Keynote Address

"The Pentagon's New Map: US Foreign Policy
and the World Economy"
Dr. Thomas Barnett, Senior Managing
Director, Enterra Solutions; author of The
Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century,Washington, DC
8:15 p.m. Question and Answer Session
9:00 p.m. Recesss
</blockquote>

Get tickets <a href="http://artstix.artspartners.net/eventperformances.asp?evt=135&c=8&pg=">here</a>.  You can buy for the whole 2-day event or just that night.  If a non-member, the whole two days is $125, and the Friday night w banquet is $80.  Just coming to the Friday program and no banquet is $40.

The event is held at the Par-a-dice Hotel, East Peoria, IL, and I will be signing books.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>The WSJ&apos;s retail effort to force an Obama bombing of Iran proceeds apace</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/the_wsjs_retail_effort_to_forc.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11234</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T09:16:58Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T11:08:25Z</updated>
   
   <summary> OPINION: &quot;The Netanyahu Diaries,&quot; by Bret Stephens, Wall Street Journal, 23 March 2010. OPINION: &quot;Obama&apos;s Legacy and the Iranian Bomb,&quot; by Alan M. Dershowitz, Wall Street Journal, 23 March 2010. All subtly is now lost: Stephens suggests we accept...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
OPINION:  "<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704117304575137523820378964.html?mod=rss_Today%27s_Most_Popular">The Netanyahu Diaries</a>," by Bret Stephens, <i>Wall Street Journal</i>, 23 March 2010.

OPINION:  "<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704869304575110042827617582.html?mod=rss_Today%27s_Most_Popular">Obama's Legacy and the Iranian Bomb</a>," by Alan M. Dershowitz, <i>Wall Street Journal</i>, 23 March 2010.
</blockquote>

All subtly is now lost:  Stephens suggests we accept a Netanyahu trade on new settlements being stopped for a promise to bomb Iran; Dershowitz, never a timid type, trots out the tired Chamberlain bit, which works because Nazi Germany was approaching the bomb while Czechoslovakia already had 2-300 warheads and was therefore completely vulnerable to Nazi pressure (seriously, the analogy fits like a glove).

I just wish Israel would get it over with and bomb Iran so we could all see what a "huge" setback it would be.
 
Ah, but that would ruin the Chamberlain analogy.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>The Obama accomplishment on healthcare</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/the_obama_accomplishment_on_he.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11233</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T09:12:32Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T01:16:47Z</updated>
   
   <summary> FRONT PAGE: &quot;Obama celebrates as historic victory sets battle lines for mid-term polls,&quot; by Tom Braithwaite and Daneil Dombey, Financial Times, 23 March 2010. OBAMA&apos;S COMEBACK: &quot;Shares rise after health vote ends uncertainty: Demand likely to offset price controls;...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
FRONT PAGE:  "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6a6bad42-3619-11df-aa43-00144feabdc0.html">Obama celebrates as historic victory sets battle lines for mid-term polls</a>," by Tom Braithwaite and Daneil Dombey, <i>Financial Times</i>, 23 March 2010.

OBAMA'S COMEBACK:  "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/842dfbb2-35fc-11df-aa43-00144feabdc0.html">Shares rise after health vote ends uncertainty</a>:  Demand likely to offset price controls; Markets factor in impact on profits," by Andrew Jack, <i>Financial Times</i>< 23 March 2010.

EDITORIAL:  "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7dc5b56c-35e8-11df-aa43-00144feabdc0.html">Obama secures his place in history</a>:  Against the odds, he has won badly needed health reform," <i>Financial Times</i>< 23 March 2010.

COMMENT:  "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/30c78d80-361a-11df-aa43-00144feabdc0.html">Obama's victory changes the world</a>," by Gideon Rachman, <i>Financial Times</i>, 23 March 2010.
</blockquote>

Better to go with the less partisan foreign coverage on this one.

Well, if Obama had to blow off Australia and Indonesia, at least it was for something big.

Naturally, both Dems and the GOP are energized by the totally partisan votes.  The markets, meanwhile, don't seem to believe that the healthcare companies will suffer.  The public option was shelved, and "universal" care was not achieved.

But, as the editorial argues, "They have passed a healthcare reform that guarantees health insurance for almost all Americans and ensures that bankruptcy will no longer be a consequence of serious illness . . . better late than never."

Unfinished and flawed, and definitely unpopular in the short run.  As for the long run?  "Unlikely," says the FT. 

<blockquote>
Whatever problems and complications intervene, the entitlements enshrined in this legislation are so basic that they will come to be seen as inalienable--just as Social Security and Medicare, the country's other landmark social-welfare provisions, now are.  Come what may, the principals will look back on this as their proudest moment in politics.
</blockquote>

Who to blame for the lack of national consensus?  Both sides obviously, but more the GOP, which has grown as monstrously dysfunctional on domestic issues as the Dems have become on international security. 

Does Obama's "weakness" image fade?  Domestically, yes, but it was small there.  Globally?  Not yet, because it is substantial there.

So I say Rachman's title is simply not deliverable.

And yet . . .

<blockquote>
By committing his nation to providing healthcare for nearly everyone, Mr Obama will undermine the Michael Moore vision of America as a country where big business ruthlessly exploits the downtrodden poor.  This is a cartoon version of the US that is wildly popular in Europe and around the world.  It will be harder to propagate in the wake of healthcare reforms.
</blockquote>

That idea I like a lot.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>The (latent) kinetic balancing of our Israeli-Arab interests</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/the_latent_kinetic_balancing_o.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11232</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T09:11:11Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T01:12:22Z</updated>
   
   <summary> WORLD NEWS: &quot;US struggles to agree Gulf arms sales policy: Washington stalls on UAE fighters; Arab states uneasy at lack of clarity,&quot; by Daniel Dombey and Jeremy Lemer, Financial Times, 22 March 2010. Another reason why Israel wants us...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
WORLD NEWS:  "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3a9d37de-3551-11df-9cfb-00144feabdc0.html">US struggles to agree Gulf arms sales policy</a>:  Washington stalls on UAE fighters; Arab states uneasy at lack of clarity," by Daniel Dombey and Jeremy Lemer, <i>Financial Times</i>, 22 March 2010.
</blockquote>

Another reason why Israel wants us to bomb Iran pronto:  the fear that the more sensible route of deterrence and containment will mean an equally sensible balancing of our mil-mil relationships in the region--to the relative favor of Arab regimes.

But this is a good thing.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Obama&apos;s healthcare win . . .</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/obamas_healthcare_win.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11230</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T09:09:18Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T01:10:08Z</updated>
   
   <summary>Is a big win for my family in that my eldest, the sixteen-year cancer survivor, can now stay on my health insurance until she turns 26. I will take that change with undisguised glee. On domestic issues, I am most...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      Is a big win for my family in that my eldest, the sixteen-year cancer survivor, can now stay on my health insurance until she turns 26.

I will take that change with undisguised glee.

On domestic issues, I am most definitely a Democrat because I believe health care coverage is a fundamental right.
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>What&apos;s Obama&apos;s Af-Pak goal?</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/whats_obamas_af-pak_goal.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11229</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T09:04:58Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T01:07:05Z</updated>
   
   <summary>ARTICLE: Pak to raise India&apos;s presence in Afghanistan: report, Press Trust Of India, March 22, 2010 This will be THE key test of Obama&apos;s Af-Pak strategy, for it will tell us whether or not he&apos;s serious about a long-term stabilizing...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/americas/Pak-to-raise-India-s-presence-in-Afghanistan-report/Article1-521935.aspx">Pak to raise India's presence in Afghanistan: report</a>, Press Trust Of India, March 22, 2010</blockquote>

This will be THE key test of Obama's Af-Pak strategy, for it will tell us whether or not he's serious about a long-term stabilizing outcome or if he's just seeking an easy exit.  

Hint: the long-term stability means making India happier than Pakistan, because the latter needs a disconnected Afghanistan to feel secure, while the former needs the exact opposite.

And we have to side with the Connectors.

(Thanks: Our man in Kabul))]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Same old Pakistani strategy</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/same_old_pakistani_strategy.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11228</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T09:00:58Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T01:03:03Z</updated>
   
   <summary>ARTICLE: Army Chief Driving Pakistan&apos;s Agenda for Talks, By JANE PERLEZ, New York Times, March 21, 2010 Hard to see how this is a good sign. Seems the &quot;strategic depth&quot; logic will remain the sum of Pakistan&apos;s fears....</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/22/world/asia/22kayani.html">Army Chief Driving Pakistan's Agenda for Talks</a>, 
By JANE PERLEZ, <em>New York Times</em>, March 21, 2010</blockquote>

Hard to see how this is a good sign.  Seems the "strategic depth" logic will remain the sum of Pakistan's fears.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Let&apos;s deal on the poppy crop</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/lets_deal_on_the_poppy_crop.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11239</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T08:39:42Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T02:41:24Z</updated>
   
   <summary>ARTICLE: In Marja, a Vice President Speaks With Warmth, but Reaps Cool, By ALISSA J. RUBIN, New York Times, March 1, 2010 The argument from David makes a lot of sense: if we are indeed deep into the crop cycle,...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/02/world/asia/02marja.html?ref=world">In Marja, a Vice President Speaks With Warmth, but Reaps Cool</a>, By ALISSA J. RUBIN, <em>New York Times</em>, March 1, 2010</blockquote>

The argument from David makes a lot of sense:  if we are indeed deep into the crop cycle, then better to buy that harvest (and perhaps the next one or two, I say), and in the meantime pursue the minimal infrastructure necessary for a crop switch.  Pissing off so many farmers amidst this big push seems like something to be avoided.

(Thanks: Sgt David Brooks)]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Chineses telecom in Taiwan</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/chineses_telecom_in_taiwan.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11238</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T08:38:18Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T02:39:27Z</updated>
   
   <summary>POST: China Mobile given OK to set up shop in Taiwan, By Chris Ziegler, Engadget, Mar 5th 2010 Yet another sign of the underlying economic integration that continues apace: It&apos;s not every day that a Chinese company gets regulatory approval...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>POST: <a href="http://mobile.engadget.com/2010/03/05/china-mobile-given-ok-to-set-up-shop-in-taiwan/">China Mobile given OK to set up shop in Taiwan</a>, By Chris Ziegler, <em>Engadget</em>, Mar 5th 2010</blockquote>

Yet another sign of the underlying economic integration that continues apace:

<blockquote>
It's not every day that a Chinese company gets regulatory approval to invest in Taiwan. Actually, a Chinese company has never before been given permission to invest in Taiwan's communications infrastructure, so it's pretty big news here that the world's largest carrier by subscribers -- China Mobile -- has just been greenlighted to set up a subsidiary there. 
</blockquote>

Telecoms, unsurprisingly, lead the way.

(Thanks: Brad Barbaza )]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>The Islamic reformation will be led by women</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/the_islamic_reformation_will_b.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11237</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T08:36:08Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T02:37:42Z</updated>
   
   <summary>POST: Let These Women Pray!, by Asra Q. Nomani, Blogs and Stories, February 27, 2010 An old argument of mine regarding a religious reformation led by women within Islam within the Core. Haven&apos;t used the slide in a long time,...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>POST: <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-02-27/let-these-women-pray/?cid=hp:beastoriginalsC2">Let These Women Pray!</a>, by Asra Q. Nomani, <em>Blogs and Stories</em>, February 27, 2010</blockquote>

An old argument of mine regarding a religious reformation led by women within Islam within the Core.  Haven't used the slide in a long time, but it was a favorite of mine.  Covered the subject in <i>Blueprint</i>.

Slow but steady is the pace, and as Andrew argues, you see the copying of old civil rights protests, which, of course, MLK specifically borrowed from Gandhi.

Good stuff and worth tracking.

(Thanks: Andrew Stewart)]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>The evolution of Hollywood.global</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/the_evolution_of_hollywoodglob.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11236</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T08:31:43Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T02:34:12Z</updated>
   
   <summary> FRONT PAGE: &quot;New Global Recipe: America&apos;s next big hit pic could be French,&quot; by John Hopewell and Ali Jaafar, Variety Concise capture of evolutionary waves: Step 1 was Hollywood&apos;s realization that its films could earn more money overseas than...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
FRONT PAGE:  "<a href="http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118014807.html?categoryId=19&cs=1">New Global Recipe:  America's next big hit pic could be French</a>," by John Hopewell and Ali Jaafar, <i>Variety</i>< 8-14 February 2010.
</blockquote>

Concise capture of evolutionary waves:

<blockquote>
Step 1 was Hollywood's realization that its films could earn more money overseas than domestically.

Step 2 was Hollywood's jump into local-language production, forming co-productions with overseas companies or cementing right deals with various territories (as New Line did with "Lord of the Rings").

Now it's the international companies, not Hollywood, that are opening the door to Step 3:  making audience-friendly, English-language films with stars (a la "Taken") and American-based producers like [Joel] Silver, Neal Moritz and Gary Barber.

The model for this 21st-century global studio is StudioCanal, which is doing multi-territory distribution, has a massive library rich with remake potential, an international sales arm, inhouse pay TV deals through Canal Plus, and production relationships with Hollywood producers.
</blockquote>

Fascinating stuff.  Hollywood's evolutions have always said a lot about globalization's evolution, thus my penchant for tracking.

StudioCanal would be described by IBM's Sam Palmisano as a "globally-integrated enterprise."]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Thanks for the pain</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/thanks_for_the_pain.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11235</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-24T08:27:29Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-24T11:08:03Z</updated>
   
   <summary> ADVERTISEMENT: &quot;Six-week preparation, eight-week shoot in Jordan: 9 Academy Award Nominations! The Royal Film Commission Jordan congratulates the cast &amp; crew of THE HURT LOCKER,&quot; Variety For those wondering where the filming occurred. Ad includes favorable blurb from Bigelow...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
ADVERTISEMENT:  "Six-week preparation, eight-week shoot in Jordan:  9 Academy Award Nominations!  The Royal Film Commission Jordan congratulates the cast & crew of THE HURT LOCKER," <i>Variety</i>< 8-14 February 2010.
</blockquote>

For those wondering where the filming occurred.

Ad includes favorable blurb from Bigelow saying, "I highly recommend shooting there."
]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>Obama continues Bush-Cheney in Iraq</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/obama_continues_bush-cheney_in.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11225</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-23T09:57:02Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-23T03:00:10Z</updated>
   
   <summary> ARTICLE: Followers of Sadr Emerge Stronger After Iraq Elections, By ANTHONY SHADID, New York Times, March 16, 2010 ARTICLE: Tehran aiding al Qaeda links, Petraeus says, By Bill Gertz, Washington Times, March 17, 2010 After the successful putsch back...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/world/middleeast/17sadr.html?ref=world">Followers of Sadr Emerge Stronger After Iraq Elections</a>, 
By ANTHONY SHADID, <em>New York Times</em>, March 16, 2010

ARTICLE: <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/17/tehran-aiding-al-qaeda-links-petraeus-says/">Tehran aiding al Qaeda links, Petraeus says</a>, By Bill Gertz, <em>Washington Times</em>, March 17, 2010
</blockquote>

After the successful putsch back home, Tehran feels more than comfortable enough to pursue its anti-American meddling full-time in Iraq (where it's clients did fine in the election), Afghanistan and the larger region.  The more we're tied down as we seek to exit, the less likely our military will be to agree to anything launched against Iran, meaning it's an intelligent asymmetrical defense by Iran that's designed to keep us on the defensive on our way out the door.

Obama seems to have walked into this dynamic with no more intelligence than Bush-Cheney.  Everybody, it seems, needs to prove their cojones with Iran on the nuke issue ("We will not tolerate!"), sacrificing larger, more important efforts in the meantime.  The sad part remains the reality that our "toleration" isn't required, so the only people we're kidding is ourselves.

I see a clever exiting push by Obama but no real effort to improve the situations regionally.  It's the same brain-dead we-take-on-all-comers bullshit.  I see nothing inside the military in terms of leadership that's trying much to improve that performance, just the usual braking on stuff they see as stupid diversions (e.g., attacking Iran).  Obama is simply riding the Bush-Cheney drawdown trajectory, replicating it in Afghanistan.

(Via WPR's Media Roundup)]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>The too-smart, too-controlled presidency</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/the_too-smart_too-controlled_p.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11224</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-23T09:51:04Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-23T02:56:32Z</updated>
   
   <summary> OPINION: &quot;Obama&apos;s Foreign Policy Paradox,&quot; by Matthew Kaminski, Wall Street Journal, 12 March 2010. OPINION: &quot;Road to the Nut House,&quot; by Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal, 13-14 March 2010. WORLD NEWS: &quot;Israel-US spat adds to rising view of Obama...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
OPINION:  "<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704454304575081353804049786.html">Obama's Foreign Policy Paradox</a>," by Matthew Kaminski, <i>Wall Street Journal</i>, 12 March 2010.

OPINION:  "<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703625304575116091277942862.html">Road to the Nut House</a>," by Peggy Noonan, <i>Wall Street Journal</i>, 13-14 March 2010.

WORLD NEWS:  "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/028bece4-2e41-11df-85c0-00144feabdc0.html">Israel-US spat adds to rising view of Obama as pushover</a>:  The White House effort to get peace talks going again is floundering," by Edward Luce and Daniel Dombey, <i>Financial Times</i>, 13-14 March 2010.
</blockquote>

Kaminski's argument:  the oddity that Obama is doing well on the wars (Iraq & Afghanistan--although calling the former a "war" gets awfully old and inaccurate) but doing poorly everywhere else.  The latter situation feeds the perception of weakness, which contradicts what should be a perception of war-leader strength.

So the jury is out on the "paradoxical" Obama.  Will he go down as a kowtower to dictatorships or the job-finisher in Iraq and Afghanistan?

My sense of the linkage between the two:  Obama is surprisingly go-it-alone in both realms.  America is forging its withdrawal in Iraq on its own, and largely fighting its way to hoped-for success in Afghanistan on its own.  Yes, in both instances there are allies galore standing nearby, but the show remains ours--as do all the key decisions.  Ditto for the reach-outs to various regimes.  Other than the elevation of the G-20, these efforts all strike me as rather tightly held enterprises.

All this fits the image of a tightly self-controlled White House manned by Obama and his four top lieutenants (Jarrett, Gibbs, Emmanuel and Axelrod).  It also fits the my-way-or-the-highway omnibus method of domestic legislation.

In short, despite all the great rhetoric about a multi-partner world, there is a strong bilateralist tone to this administration--right down to the special ambassadors, with multilateralism seeming to be America working everybody to get what it wants and those "wants" constituting our multilateral vision--sort of slapped-together omnibus feel there too.  It's simply the headlines I'm reading.

And then you read Noonan's take on the "Game Change" election history book and you get this disturbing take that seems to feed the controlling impression:

<blockquote>
Barack Obama, who interestingly gets the best treatment in the book--protect those sources!--is not immune [to criticism].  He is smart, "and he not only knew it but wanted to make sure everyone else knew it."  In meetings with aides, he controlled the conversation by interrupting whoever was talking.  He is boastful, gaudily confident.  Before his 2004 convention speech, a reporter asked him if he was nervous:  "I'm LeBron, baby," he answers.  "I got some game."
</blockquote>

I wince at that description, especially the interrupting part.  That is ego unbridled, in my experience.  True leaders, I find, are more quiet during presentations and debates and then weigh in decisively at the end; the weaker the decision-maker, the more frequently he interrupts.  Just something that jumped out at me, in part because I had the same impression from his townhall meeting with legislators on healthcare that was broadcast--long before I read Noonan's take on the book.  He seemed to have a pathological need to dominate the dialogue--beyond the presidential prerogative, like dominating the process equaled dominating the outcome.

The Luce and Dombey bit about "who's in charge?" misleads, in my mind.  I fear that Obama is far too in charge and that what we suffer is underempowered subordinates, the result being a profound lack of strategic imagination.  Where are the bright lights of this administration on foreign policy?  I mean, we've got names and reputations, but other than the apology tour, the flow of big ideas internationally is non-existent.  It seems they're all used up domestically and we're seeing a commensurate neediness on the foreign policy side that everyone--friend and foe alike--are picking up. 

Obama did a great job of darn near instantly recalibrating our relationship with the world, and I can understand the tight control on that process, but now's the time to turn the assembled talent loose, and so far this does not seem to be the case.

I sense a flood of bitter memoirs coming in 2013, and that most will be painfully on-target.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

<entry>
   <title>North Korea:  major sand supplier to South!</title>
   <link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/2010/03/north_korea_major_sand_supplie.html" />
   <id>tag:thomaspmbarnett.com,2010://1.11223</id>
   
   <published>2010-03-23T09:49:26Z</published>
   <updated>2010-03-23T02:50:58Z</updated>
   
   <summary> WORLD NEWS: &quot;North Korea hit by Seoul move to halt sand imports,&quot; by Christian Oliver and Song Jung-a, Financial Times, 19 March 2010. South Korea, famed exporter of all sorts of high-tech goods, no longer finds a compelling use...</summary>
   <author>
      <name>Thomas P.M. Barnett</name>
      <uri>http://thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog</uri>
   </author>
   
   
   <content type="html" xml:lang="en" xml:base="http://thomaspmbarnett.com/">
      <![CDATA[<blockquote>
WORLD NEWS: "<a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0db3a864-32f6-11df-bf5f-00144feabdc0.html">North Korea hit by Seoul move to halt sand imports</a>," by Christian Oliver and Song Jung-a, <i>Financial Times</i>, 19 March 2010.
</blockquote>

South Korea, famed exporter of all sorts of high-tech goods, no longer finds a compelling use for one of its separated-at-birth/evil twin's major exports:  sand.

That's it.  North Korea is good for sand and not much else.

That's what disconnection does to your economy.]]>
      
   </content>
</entry>

</feed>
