000
FXUS62 KMFL 020501
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1201 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

    - Dangerously cold temperatures and apparent temperatures are
      expected again tonight into Monday morning. Members of the
      general public and agricultural interests are advised to
      prepare accordingly. 

    - Hazardous marine conditions continue today. Mariners should
      stay up to date with the latest marine forecast over the
      next several days. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 214 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

The strong winds from overnight and this morning continue to
decrease, although it remains breezy across the region through the
rest of today. Breezy conditions will continue to cease tomorrow
as the deep low pressure in the western Atlantic continues to
depart further eastward.

Until this low gets far enough away from the general vicinity,
winds will remain out of the NNW and keep this colder air mass in
place tonight through tomorrow. Low temperatures got into the 30s
along the coastal areas and metro areas, with temperatures in the
20s closer to the Lake O area. This is expected to happen again
tonight, although coastal locations might perhaps be a couple of
degrees warmer. 

With cold temperatures expected again tonight, a Cold Weather
Advisory has been issued again for the entire region tonight until
10AM Monday. Additionally, a Freeze Warning has been issued for
tonight until 9AM Monday for inland locations. The metro locations
are not included in the Freeze Warning for tonight. Any further
updates to the forecast will continue to be communicated, but in
general it will be another anomalously cold night tonight across 
South Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Strong cold front has crossed South FL and one of the coldest 
airmasses South FL has experienced since at least 2010 is filtering 
into the region early this morning. The back-trajectory of this 
airmass can be traced back to Hudson Bay in Canada. Latest ACARS 
sounding for MIA shows a PWAT value of 0.5 inches, and guidance 
suggests that should drop further to around 0.2 inches by daybreak. 
The 540 thickness line is all the way down to Lake Okeechobee and 
some guidance suggests it may drop south of the lake by the end of 
the day. Temperatures continue to plummet early this morning and low 
temps will bottom out in the mid to upper 20s around the lake and 
lower 30s across the metro areas. The temperatures will feel even 
colder though thanks to a tight pressure gradient between the 
quickly deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast and strong high 
pressure over the Southern US. Wind gusts of 40-45 mph are expected 
through daybreak, which will result in dangerous apparent temps in 
the teens around the lake region and 20s over the rest of South FL. 

As for current headlines, We have Extreme Cold Warning and Freeze 
Warnings for Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach. Freeze Warnings and 
Cold Weather Advisories for metro/inland Broward, metro/inland Miami-
Dade, and inland Collier. Cold Weather Advisory for coastal Broward, 
coastal Miami-Dade, coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, and far south 
Miami-Dade. All of the cold weather products are in effect until 10 
AM this morning. In addition, the entire area is under a Wind 
Advisory for wind gusts up to 45 mph until 7 AM. 

Despite plenty of sunshine expected today, temperatures will 
struggle to rebound as the cold airmass continues to filter into the 
region. High temps will barely reach 50 north of Alligator Alley, 
and will reach the low to mid 50s over the far southern peninsula. 
The pressure gradient will start to relax as the day progresses, 
however wind gusts of 20-30 mph are still expected through sunset 
tonight.

Tonight will be another extremely cold night across the region. With 
mainly clear skies and winds continuing to relax, temperatures will 
plummet quickly tonight and many inland locations will again fall 
below freezing. Low temps will range from the mid to upper 20s 
around the lake, to low and mid 30s across the metro. With the 
lighter winds in place, especially west of the lake, frost will 
become more of an issue tonight. Frost may even be observed over 
western portions of the metro, especially in sheltered locations. 
While the apparent temps won't be as low tonight, they will still 
fall into the 20s over most of South FL. Cold weather headlines will 
be issued later today after the current headlines are expired. 

While daytime temperatures on Monday will be "warmer" than Sunday, 
they will still remain well below normal only reaching the upper 50s 
to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

As high pressure slowly shifts over the area on Tuesday and 
Wednesday, we'll start a slow warm up across South FL. Cold weather 
headlines will likely be needed again Tuesday morning especially 
over inland South FL where lows will be in the low to mid 30s. As 
the high shifts east of the area mid week, the low level winds will 
become south to southwesterly which will bring temperatures up to 
near normal for Wednesday. This warmup will be short-lived however 
as another cold front is expected to cross the area on Thursday, and 
this will reinforce cooler air into the region for the remainder of 
the week and into at least the first half of next weekend. The only 
real rainfall chances in the extended period will be late Wednesday 
into early Thursday ahead of the approaching front, however QPF 
values appear to be a tenth of an inch or less so there will be 
little to no relief for the ongoing drought.

Temperatures overall this upcoming week will remain below normal. 
Besides Tuesday morning as mentioned above, the only other day this 
week with potential cold weather headlines will be Friday morning, 
and that may just end up being over inland SW FL. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. NW winds 5-10 kts this morning
except APF which will have light NE winds. NW winds increase to
10-15 kts this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Dangerous marine conditions today for all South FL waters. NW winds 
30-40 kts with gusts around 45 kts expected through at least early 
this afternoon. Seas 10-15 ft in the both the Atlantic and Gulf 
waters today. Gale Warnings are in effect for all area waters. Winds 
begin to subside this evening although Small Craft winds are likely 
to remain in the Atlantic through Monday evening. Hazardous seas in 
the Gulf are expected until late tonight and in the Atlantic until 
early Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Increasing swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for all 
area beaches today. In addition, a high surf advisory is in effect 
until this afternoon for Collier county beaches for surf heights of 
5-8 ft in the surf zone. A high surf advisory may be needed for the 
Palm Beaches on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 106 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

A very cold and dry airmass is expected today into early this 
upcoming week. Critically low RH values are expected over much of 
South FL today and Monday and over SW FL on Tuesday. The min RH 
values today will coincide with decreasing wind values so fire 
weather headlines are not expected, however an elevated threat will 
still exist especially with dry fuels across the area from the 
prolonged drought.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            59  42  68  55 /   0   0   0   0 
West Kendall     60  36  69  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Opa-Locka        60  42  69  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Homestead        60  41  68  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Lauderdale  59  42  67  56 /   0   0   0   0 
N Ft Lauderdale  58  42  67  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Pembroke Pines   60  41  69  53 /   0   0   0   0 
West Palm Beach  58  41  67  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Boca Raton       60  42  68  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Naples           60  39  68  48 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-
     066>075-168-172>174.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066>068-
     070>074-168.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Tuesday 
     for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF
