000
FXUS62 KMFL 021117
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
617 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

    - Dangerously cold temperatures and apparent temperatures are
      expected this morning and Tuesday morning. Members of the 
      general public and agricultural interests are advised to 
      prepare accordingly. 

    - Hazardous marine conditions continue through early this
      morning for the Gulf waters and through Tuesday morning in
      the Atlantic waters.

    - High risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches early
      this week, along with a high surf advisory for the Palm
      Beaches today through early Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Strong high pressure is over the northern Gulf today, which will 
continue to filter cool and dry air into the region. 00Z MFL 
sounding last night showed a PWAT value of only 0.17 inches and 
those values will remain low throughout the day. Our historic cold 
snap will continue for another morning with lows today ranging from 
the mid 20s to mid 30s. Freeze Warnings are in place for all of 
South FL with the exception of coastal Broward, coastal Miami-Dade, 
coastal Collier, far southern Miami-Dade, and Mainland Monroe. Winds 
are much lighter this morning so apparent temps won't feel as cold, 
however they will still drop into the 20s this morning, so a Cold 
Weather Advisory is in effect for all of South FL. With the much 
lighter winds, especially over inland areas, frost will likely be 
observed in many sheltered locations, with heavy frost possible west 
and south of the lake. 

While 850 mb temps won't be as cold as they were this time 
yesterday, they are still only projected to be +0 to +2 C this 
afternoon across South FL. Afternoon high temps will be "warmer" 
than yesterday however remain well below normal only reaching the 
upper 50s to around 60. With dewpoints remaining in the 20s, RH 
values this afternoon will drop to 20-30 percent even with the cool 
temps. 

There will be another round of cold weather headlines tonight, 
although the Freeze Warnings will likely be confined to inland SW FL 
where lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Mid to upper 
30s are expected over the western portions of the east coast metro, 
and lower 40s are expected along the coast. Despite light winds 
tonight, Cold Weather Advisory criteria will likely be met in all 
locations except the Atlantic coastal zones. 

Surface high pressure moves over Florida on Tuesday which will 
switch our winds around to the NE. This will further moderate 
temperatures across the area, and also increase cloud cover over the 
east coast metro during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will still 
be below normal but will feel much nicer, ranging from the upper 60s 
to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

The extended period starts on a moderating trend with high pressure 
moving east of the area which allows a warm S/SW flow ahead of an 
approaching front associated with a system moving across the Mid 
Atlantic region. Scattered showers are possible overnight Wednesday 
into early Thursday before the front crosses the area and brings 
another round of cooler weather into the region, albeit not nearly 
as cold as this last airmass. High pressure over the northern Gulf 
will build into the region and dry and cool conditions are expected 
for the remainder of the week. Another front associated with a 
system over northern New England will drop down across the area next 
weekend, with little to no moisture associated with this front. 

Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be below normal, with near 
normal temperatures expected next weekend. Only day in the extended 
that will likely have cold weather headlines will be Friday morning, 
with the SW FL counties most likely to meet criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS) 
Issued at 620 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR prevails through the next 24 hours at all terminals. NW winds
5-7 kts this morning increase to 10-15 kts with occasional gusts
over 20 kt after 16-17Z. Winds subside tonight with L/V flow
likely overnight. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Hazardous seas in the Gulf will continue through early this morning, 
with cautionary northerly winds remaining through the rest of the 
day. Hazardous winds and seas will continue in the Atlantic waters 
through at least Tuesday morning. 4-7 ft seas early today in the 
Gulf improve to 2-4 ft by late in the day. Atlantic seas will be 6-
12 ft early today and 5-10 ft this evening and overnight. Northerly 
winds 10-15 kts in the Gulf today with 20-25 kts in the Atlantic. 

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Persistent swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for the 
Atlantic beaches through at least Tuesday. In addition, a high surf 
advisory is in effect this morning through Tuesday morning for the 
Palm Beaches for 6-8 ft waves in the surf zone.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

A very dry airmass remains over South FL early this week. Min RH 
values will fall to 20-30 percent this afternoon over all of South 
FL, and critically low RH values are possible again on Tuesday over 
interior SW FL. While wind speeds will remain below criteria, the 
low RH values combined with the ongoing drought conditions will 
still present an elevated fire risk across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            58  43  68  56 /   0   0   0   0 
West Kendall     59  36  69  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Opa-Locka        59  41  68  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Homestead        60  41  69  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Lauderdale  58  43  68  56 /   0   0   0   0 
N Ft Lauderdale  57  43  68  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Pembroke Pines   59  41  69  53 /   0   0   0   0 
West Palm Beach  57  41  68  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Boca Raton       58  42  68  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Naples           59  38  68  48 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-
     066>075-168-172>174.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ063-066>068-
     070>074-168.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...17
