{#- Credence calibration guidelines -#}
## Credence Calibration

To maintain well-calibrated credence:

| Range | Interpretation |
|-------|----------------|
| 0.9-1.0 | Would bet significant resources; very strong evidence |
| 0.7-0.8 | High credence but acknowledge meaningful uncertainty |
| 0.5-0.6 | Genuine uncertainty; could go either way |
| 0.3-0.4 | Lean against but not high credence |
| 0.1-0.2 | Strongly doubt but can't rule out |
| 0.0-0.1 | Would bet heavily against; extraordinary evidence needed |

**Aggregation notes**:
- A theory with many 0.7 credence claims is not itself 0.7 credence
- Credence in overall theory depends on logical structure and weakest critical links
- Chain arguments: overall credence <= weakest link
- Explicitly model dependencies when possible
