

094 

TXUS20 KNES 310117

SPENES

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL

SPENES

FLZ000-

.

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/31/11 0116Z

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678

LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0102Z  HANNA

.

LOCATION...FLORIDA...

.

ATTN WFOS...MFL...KEY...

ATTN RFCS...SERFC...

.

EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN

.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS A MESOSCALE

BAND OF CONVECTION HAS ORIENTED ITSELF FROM ROUGHLY KEY BISCAYNE

WSW TOWARDS THE VIC OF CUTLER.  UPWIND PORTION OF THIS BAND HAS BEEN

RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING

TOPS EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY.  EYW SOUNDING WITH PW VALUES OF 2.18" IS

SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-SENSOR BLENDED PW ANALYSIS SHOWING PW'S ROUGHLY

AROUND 2.25" WHICH IS ROUGHLY 150% ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES.

SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL PATTERN IN

BAND SINCE THE INCREDIBLE RAINFALL REPORTS IN MFL FFW OUT OF PERRINE AREA.

THIS WOULD AT THE VERY LEAST SUGGEST THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 2.0-4.0"/HR

SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SHORT TERM NEAR THE CUTLER AREA ON THE SHORT TERM.

AGREE WITH MOST RECENT SWOMCD THAT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD

CONTINUE ON THE SHORT TERM AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION  WILL CONTINUE IN

STRONG LL EASTERLY FLOW.

.

A QUICK PEAK AT THE MOST RECENT 0102Z IR IMAGE SHOWS RAPID COOLING WITH

OVERSHOOTING TOP JUST ENE OF PALMETTO BAY.  BELIEVE RAINFALL RATES WITHIN

THIS RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOP AREA TO LIKELY BE IN EXCESS OF 3.0"/HR.

.

SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.

....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....

.

SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:

HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/

...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/

.

LAT...LON 2639 7947 2614 7933 2560 7953 2487 8015 2444 8102

2420 8168 2419 8227 2466 8237 2516 8201 2586 8103

2625 8016

.

NNNN



