

672 

ACUS11 KWNS 110026

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 110026 

IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110200-



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0726 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013



AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...FAR NERN NEB



CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 



VALID 110026Z - 110200Z



PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT



SUMMARY...ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST THIS

EVENING...PARTICULARLY WITH A SMALL SUPERCELL MOVING SEWD ACROSS

HUTCHINSON COUNTY IN SERN SD AT 0010Z. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO

LOCAL IN NATURE TO JUSTIFY A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE

MONITORED.



DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONTAL

BOUNDARY EXTENDING WNWWD FROM NERN NEB INTO SRN SD. SURFACE

DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND N OF THE

BOUNDARY...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY COOL /60S TO MID

70S/. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK

SHEAR AROUND 40 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT

AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...AS OBSERVED OVER HUTCHINSON COUNTY IN

SERN SD AT 0010Z. THIS STORM IS MOVING SEWD AT 30 KT...AND WILL

REACH THE SD/NEB BORDER DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WHERE OTHER

ELEVATED STORMS ARE ONGOING. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL

DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MARGINAL ATTM...THUS A WW DOES NOT CURRENTLY

APPEAR NECESSARY. LATER TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL SLY JET WILL

STRENGTHEN...WITH THE EXIT REGION INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AND

WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED

STORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE

HAIL...BUT MORE LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL.



..GARNER/GOSS.. 08/11/2013



...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...



LAT...LON   42579655 42249717 42779803 43409886 43849912 44159876

            43519709 42579655 



