

012 

FXUS63 KDMX 091156 RRA

AFDDMX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA

652 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015



.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015



THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES.  850 TEMPS

WARM QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH +22 EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS MASON CITY BY

21Z.  I NUDGED TEMPS UP BIT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE

WE WERE COOLER TO BEGIN WITH.  LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO BE MOSTLY IN

THE LOWER 90S ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE

FORECAST AREA AND WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT UPPER 80S THERE SO A VERY

WARM DAY IS ON TAP.



MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER ON A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE

NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN AND ARE NOW PUSHING THIS THROUGH

TONIGHT.  THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE LIKEWISE

SLOWER AS WELL.  SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND DESPITE DECENT

INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THERE IS NO FORCING AND NO

BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ANYTHING ON AND THE BETTER SHEAR IS TIED TO THE

LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SO I DO NOT HAVE PRECIP IN THE GRIDS FOR

TODAY.  I DO HOWEVER HAVE SOME TOKEN SLIGHTS IN AT 00Z TO BLEND WITH

NEIGHBORS AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AND THE FRONT NEARS.



.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015



FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE

STATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATE POP UP STORMS ALONG THE FRONT

BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN

CWA...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE

WIDESPREAD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

CWA...AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO

THURSDAY. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED NIGHT INTO

THURSDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GULF WILL OPEN

UP INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIRECTED INTO

CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW IMPULSES OF ENERGY

WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONVECTION EXPECT THURSDAY INTO

FRIDAY. SEVERE CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS

WELL...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE.

ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT AS WELL...WITH PWATS PUSHING

1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE UPPER

PERCENTILES TO NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES FOR JUNE...IN ADDITION FREEZING

LEVELS INCREASE TO AROUND 12-13KFT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL

ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND STORM MOTIONS MAY TREND

TOWARD THE SLOWER SIDE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN THE COMING

SHIFTS...BUT CONTINUED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO

FRIDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA EXPECTED TO SEE UPWARDS OF 2

INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL POSSIBLE.



ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENERGY

CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW

ALOFT...WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP BY EARLY NEXT

WEEK. ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE SEASONAL

TEMPERATURES OR JUST COOLER THAN NORMAL EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER

OF THE PERIOD.



&&



.AVIATION...09/12Z

ISSUED AT 0652 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015



PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND

WINDS WERE LIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY.  ELSEWHERE A MID LEVEL

CLOUD DECK AROUND 10KFT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE MORNING.  VFR

CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY WINDS

WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z TO AROUND 15KTS THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.  A

COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH

LIMITED MOISTURE...ONLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED.  ANY STORMS THAT MAY

DEVELOP WOULD BE TOO ISOLD TO MENTION IN TAFS.



&&



.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...FAB

LONG TERM...BEERENDS

AVIATION...FAB

