

693 

FGUS73 KGID 071725

ESFGID

NEC129-NEC175-NEC077-NEC125-NEC163-NEC093-NEC019-NEC079-NEC019-

KSC147-KSC163-051800-



PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE

1150 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015



In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal

probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages

are listed for the valid time period.



CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category

based on current conditions.



HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category

based on historical or normal conditions.



When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of

exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is

less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower

than normal.





...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...

                    Valid Period:  05/30/2015  - 08/28/2015



                                       :    Current and Historical

                                       :     Chances of Exceeding

                                       :       Flood Categories

                                       :      as a Percentage (%)

                      Categorical      :

                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major

Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS

--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

:Little Blue River

Deweese             10.0   16.0   17.0 :  20   20    5    8   <5    5

:North Fork Solomon

Glade               11.0   16.0   18.0 :   7    5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Bow Creek

Stockton             9.0   12.0   13.6 :   8   11   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Platte River

Cozad                6.5    8.0   10.0 : >98   33   40    6   <5   <5

Overton              8.0   12.0   14.0 : >98    8    8   <5   <5   <5

Kearney              6.0    8.0    9.0 : >98   29   38    6   24   <5

Grand Island         6.5    7.0    7.5 : >98   14  >98   13   37    8

:Wood River

Riverdale           11.0   15.0   20.0 :   5   11   <5   <5   <5   <5

Gibbon              15.0   16.0   16.5 :   6   13    5    9    5    8

Alda                10.0   11.0   12.2 :   8   16    6   14    5    9

:South Loup River

Ravenna              5.0    8.0   10.0 :  17   26    9   10   <5   <5

:Mud Creek

Sweetwater          15.0   18.0   20.0 :  12   18    7    7   <5   <5

:South Loup River

Saint Michael        6.5    9.0   12.0 :  15   18   10   11   <5   <5

:Middle Loup River

Saint Paul           8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:North Loup River

Saint Paul           7.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Cedar River

Fullerton            9.0   17.0   18.0 :   7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Loup River

Genoa               10.5   12.0   13.0 :  10   10   <5    5   <5   <5

:Beaver Creek

Genoa               15.0   17.0   19.0 :  15   10   13    5   <5   <5

:Republican River

Riverton             9.0   10.5   13.5 :  14    9    9    8    6    5

Guide Rock          11.0   14.0   16.0 :  22   16    6    7    5   <5

Hardy               11.0   11.5   12.0 :   9   13    9    9    8    7

:South Fork Solomon River

Woodston            12.0   16.0   27.0 :  10   25    8   17   <5   <5

:South Fork Solomon

Osborne             14.0   20.0   27.0 :  23   27    8   13   <5   <5

:North Fork Solomon

Portis              15.0   20.0   25.0 :  19   20    8   14   <5   <5

:Solomon River

Beloit              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  21   23   16   15   <5    9

:Republican River

Cambridge            9.0   10.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Orleans              9.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Beaver Creek

Beaver City         11.0   13.0   15.0 :  11    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Sappa Creek

Beaver City         16.0   18.0   20.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Stamford            19.0   22.0   26.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Prairie Dog Creek

Woodruff            21.0   24.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5



Legend

CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)

HS = Historical Simulation

FT = Feet



In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the

probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid

time period.



...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...



                               Chance of Exceeding Stages

                                  at Specific Locations

                          Valid Period: 05/30/2015  - 08/28/2015

Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

:Little Blue River

Deweese               4.1    4.3    5.0    6.8    8.7   13.4   16.0

:North Fork Solomon

Glade                 3.2    3.2    3.6    5.4    7.5   10.0   12.2

:Bow Creek

Stockton              3.6    3.6    3.6    4.5    6.1    8.3   10.1

:Platte River

Cozad                 7.7    7.7    7.7    7.8    8.4    9.0    9.4

Overton               8.3    8.3    8.3    8.4    9.9   11.5   13.0

Kearney               7.6    7.6    7.6    7.7    9.0   10.1   10.9

Grand Island          7.1    7.1    7.1    7.1    8.2    9.0    9.5

:Wood River

Riverdale             2.2    2.2    2.4    3.3    5.5    8.8   11.2

Gibbon                4.2    4.2    4.4    5.6    9.4   11.5   16.4

Alda                  4.5    4.5    4.6    5.2    7.4    9.5   12.3

:South Loup River

Ravenna               3.0    3.2    3.6    4.2    4.5    7.0    9.0

:Mud Creek

Sweetwater            6.0    6.4    8.2   10.5   12.9   15.9   18.2

:South Loup River

Saint Michael         3.0    3.3    3.7    4.2    5.2    8.7   10.2

:Middle Loup River

Saint Paul            2.5    2.6    3.0    3.2    4.0    5.0    6.6

:North Loup River

Saint Paul            3.3    3.4    3.6    4.0    4.3    4.6    5.3

:Cedar River

Fullerton             3.0    3.8    4.4    5.0    6.1    7.6   10.0

:Loup River

Genoa                 4.7    4.7    5.9    7.1    8.2   10.5   11.8

:Beaver Creek

Genoa                 4.6    5.0    6.1    7.6   12.0   17.5   18.7

:Republican River

Riverton              3.0    3.1    3.5    4.8    7.4   10.2   14.6

Guide Rock            4.2    5.1    6.1    8.0   10.4   11.7   16.1

Hardy                 3.3    3.8    5.5    6.9    8.3   10.6   12.7

:South Fork Solomon River

Woodston              3.9    3.9    3.9    5.2    6.6   11.9   20.3

:South Fork Solomon

Osborne               4.3    4.3    4.4    5.7   11.1   19.1   21.6

:North Fork Solomon

Portis                3.6    3.6    3.8    4.9   11.7   19.4   22.1

:Solomon River

Beloit                3.9    3.9    4.4    5.7   12.3   26.2   28.6

:Republican River

Cambridge             4.0    4.1    4.2    4.4    5.4    6.0    6.6

Orleans               2.7    2.8    3.2    4.2    5.9    7.6    8.5

:Beaver Creek

Beaver City           5.8    5.8    5.8    6.3    9.0   11.1   12.0

:Sappa Creek

Beaver City           3.1    3.1    3.7    5.9   10.4   15.5   16.3

Stamford              9.0    9.0    9.0   10.5   12.7   14.4   15.5

:Prairie Dog Creek

Woodruff              1.7    1.7    3.2    6.0    8.3   11.1   12.2



In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the

probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the

valid time period.



...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...



                            Chance of Falling Below Stages

                                 at Specific Locations

                          Valid Period: 05/30/2015  - 08/28/2015

Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%

--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------

:Little Blue River

Deweese               2.4    2.3    2.0    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8

:North Fork Solomon

Glade                 3.1    2.6    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0

:Bow Creek

Stockton              3.6    3.1    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0

:Platte River

Cozad                 1.7    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6

Overton               2.5    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3

Kearney               2.8    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5

Grand Island          3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1

:Wood River

Riverdale             2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1

Gibbon                4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1

Alda                  4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4

:South Loup River

Ravenna               2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4

:Mud Creek

Sweetwater            5.7    5.6    5.4    5.3    5.3    4.0    4.0

:South Loup River

Saint Michael         2.4    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3

:Middle Loup River

Saint Paul            1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5

:North Loup River

Saint Paul            3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9

:Cedar River

Fullerton             2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0

:Loup River

Genoa                 4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7

:Beaver Creek

Genoa                 3.4    3.2    3.0    2.7    2.4    2.4    2.4

:Republican River

Riverton              1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.6

Guide Rock            3.0    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3

Hardy                 1.9    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.3    1.3

:South Fork Solomon River

Woodston              3.9    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.0    3.0    3.0

:South Fork Solomon

Osborne               3.9    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4

:North Fork Solomon

Portis                3.6    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5

:Solomon River

Beloit                3.5    3.4    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9

:Republican River

Cambridge             2.1    2.0    1.4    1.1    1.1    1.1    1.1

:Beaver Creek

Beaver City           3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0

:Sappa Creek

Beaver City           2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8

Stamford              6.9    6.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5

:Prairie Dog Creek

Woodruff              0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0



These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that

are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years

of climatological data...including current conditions of the

river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range

outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of

probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning

decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part

of the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction

Service.



Visit our web site weather.gov/gid for more weather and water

information.



The next outlook will be issued July 22nd.



$$

