012 
FXUS63 KDMX 091156 RRA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
652 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES.  850 TEMPS 
WARM QUITE A BIT TODAY WITH +22 EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS MASON CITY BY 
21Z.  I NUDGED TEMPS UP BIT MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE 
WE WERE COOLER TO BEGIN WITH.  LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO BE MOSTLY IN 
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA AND WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT UPPER 80S THERE SO A VERY 
WARM DAY IS ON TAP.

MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER ON A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN AND ARE NOW PUSHING THIS THROUGH 
TONIGHT.  THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE LIKEWISE 
SLOWER AS WELL.  SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND DESPITE DECENT 
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THERE IS NO FORCING AND NO 
BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ANYTHING ON AND THE BETTER SHEAR IS TIED TO THE 
LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SO I DO NOT HAVE PRECIP IN THE GRIDS FOR 
TODAY.  I DO HOWEVER HAVE SOME TOKEN SLIGHTS IN AT 00Z TO BLEND WITH 
NEIGHBORS AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AND THE FRONT NEARS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

FAIRLY QUIET INITIALLY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE 
STATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATE POP UP STORMS ALONG THE FRONT 
BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
CWA...BUT OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE 
WIDESPREAD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
CWA...AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WED NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GULF WILL OPEN 
UP INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIRECTED INTO 
CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A FEW IMPULSES OF ENERGY 
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONVECTION EXPECT THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY. SEVERE CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS 
WELL...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE. 
ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT AS WELL...WITH PWATS PUSHING 
1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. THESE VALUES ARE IN THE UPPER 
PERCENTILES TO NEAR MAXIMUM VALUES FOR JUNE...IN ADDITION FREEZING 
LEVELS INCREASE TO AROUND 12-13KFT. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL 
ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND STORM MOTIONS MAY TREND 
TOWARD THE SLOWER SIDE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN THE COMING 
SHIFTS...BUT CONTINUED WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION IN THE GRIDS. 
A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO INCH LOOKS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA EXPECTED TO SEE UPWARDS OF 2 
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL POSSIBLE. 

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENERGY 
CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT...WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN MORE SEASONAL 
TEMPERATURES OR JUST COOLER THAN NORMAL EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER 
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/12Z 
ISSUED AT 0652 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 
WINDS WERE LIGHT SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY.  ELSEWHERE A MID LEVEL 
CLOUD DECK AROUND 10KFT WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE MORNING.  VFR 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY WINDS 
WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z TO AROUND 15KTS THEN DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.  A 
COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z BUT WITH 
LIMITED MOISTURE...ONLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED.  ANY STORMS THAT MAY 
DEVELOP WOULD BE TOO ISOLD TO MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB
