@article{Grubler-2018,
  author   = {Grubler, Arnulf and Wilson, Charlie and Bento, Nuno and Boza-Kiss, Benigna and Krey, Volker and McCollum, David L. and Rao, Narasimha D. and Riahi, Keywan and Rogelj, Joeri and De Stercke, Simon and Cullen, Jonathan and Frank, Stefan and Fricko, Oliver and Guo, Fei and Gidden, Matt and Havlík, Petr and Huppmann, Daniel and Kiesewetter, Gregor and Rafaj, Peter and Schoepp, Wolfgang and Valin, Hugo},
  title    = {A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5°C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies},
  abstract = {Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40 percent lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies.},
  doi      = {10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6},
  journal  = {Nature Energy},
  pages    = {515–527},
  volume   = {3},
  year     = {2018}
}

@article{Hunt-2021,
  author   = {Hunt, Julian David and de Assis Brasil Weber, Natalia and Zakeri, Behnam and Diaby, Ahmadou Tidiane and Byrne, Paul and Filho, Walter Leal and Smith Schneider, Paulo},
  title    = {Deep seawater cooling and desalination: Combining seawater air conditioning and desalination},
  abstract = {In tropical climates, the energy consumed by heating, ventilation and air conditioning can exceed half of the total energy consumption of a building. The demand for cooling is rising steadily, driven by global warming and rapidly increasing living standards in developing economies. In addition, there is a rise in water demand due to population increase, life quality, and global warming. Coastal areas with narrow continental shelves are the perfect site for implementing Seawater Air Conditioning (SWAC), a renewable and low CO2 emission cooling process. This article proposes the combination of SWAC and reverse osmosis (RO) desalination with the objective of providing desalinated cold water for integrated water supply and cooling services. This combination was named Deep Seawater Cooling and Desalination (DSCD). It was found that DSCD can supply 49 MWt of cooling and 1 m3/s of water simultaneously with an electricity consumption of 12 MWe. DSCD has several benefits compared to SWAC and RO individually, such as in how the cooling service and water supply are delivered together, reducing distribution costs. A case study was performed in Malé, Maldives. It shows that the technology has substantial potential to contribute to the sustainable development of tropical islands.},
  doi      = {10.1016/j.scs.2021.103257},
  issn     = {2210-6707},
  journal  = {Sustainable Cities and Society},
  keywords = {Building cooling, Industrial cooling, Energy efficiency, Seawater air conditioning, Low temperature thermal desalination, Vertical farming},
  pages    = {103257},
  volume   = {74},
  year     = {2021}
}

@article{Huppmann-2018,
  author  = {Huppmann, Daniel and Gidden, Matthew and Fricko, Oliver and Kolp, Peter and Orthofer, Clara and Pimmer, Michael and Kushin, Nikolay and Vinca, Adriano and Mastrucci, Alessio and Riahi, Keywan and Krey, Volker},
  title   = {{The MESSAGEix Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development}},
  doi     = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.11.012},
  journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
  pages   = {143–156},
  volume  = {112},
  year    = {2019}
}

@article{Johnson-2016,
  author        = {Johnson, Nils and Strubegger, Manfred and McPherson, Madeleine and Parkinson, Simon C. and Krey, Volker and Sullivan, Patrick},
  title         = {{A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system}},
  abstract      = {Abstract In many climate change mitigation scenarios, integrated assessment models of the energy and climate systems rely heavily on renewable energy technologies with variable and uncertain generation, such as wind and solar PV, to achieve substantial decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, these models often include very little temporal resolution and thus have difficulty in representing the integration costs that arise from mismatches between electricity supply and demand. The global integrated assessment model, MESSAGE, has been updated to explicitly model the trade-offs between variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment and its impacts on the electricity system, including the implications for electricity curtailment, backup capacity, and system flexibility. These impacts have been parameterized using a reduced-form approach, which allows \{VRE\} integration impacts to be quantified on a regional basis. In addition, thermoelectric technologies were updated to include two modes of operation, baseload and flexible, to better account for the cost, efficiency, and availability penalties associated with flexible operation. In this paper, the modeling approach used in \{MESSAGE\} is explained and the implications for \{VRE\} deployment in mitigation scenarios are assessed. Three important stylized facts associated with integrating high \{VRE\} shares are successfully reproduced by our modeling approach: (1) the significant reduction in the utilization of non-VRE power plants; (2) the diminishing role for traditional baseload generators, such as nuclear and coal, and the transition to more flexible technologies; and (3) the importance of electricity storage and hydrogen electrolysis in facilitating the deployment of VRE. },
  date-added    = {2016-09-25 08:25:23 +0000},
  date-modified = {2017-12-16 16:19:02 +0000},
  doi           = {10.1016/j.eneco.2016.07.010},
  journal       = {Energy Economics},
  pages         = {651–664},
  volume        = {64},
  year          = {2016}
}

@article{Keppo-2010,
  author        = {Keppo, Ilkka and Strubegger, Manfred},
  title         = {{Short term decisions for long term problems -- The effect of foresight on model based energy systems analysis}},
  date-modified = {2017-12-16 16:19:29 +0000},
  doi           = {10.1016/j.energy.2010.01.019},
  journal       = {Energy},
  number        = {5},
  pages         = {2033–2042},
  volume        = {35},
  year          = {2010}
}

@article{Kikstra-2021,
  author   = {Kikstra, Jarmo S. and Vinca, Adriano and Lovat, Francesco and Boza-Kiss, Benigna and van Ruijven, Bas and Wilson, Charlie and Rogelj, Joeri and Zakeri, Behnam and Fricko, Oliver and Riahi, Keywan},
  title    = {Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes},
  abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ per year by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19 percent, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.},
  doi      = {10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8},
  journal  = {Nature Energy},
  year     = {2021}
}

@book{Manne-Richels-1992,
  author    = {Manne, Alan Sussmann and Richels, Richard G},
  title     = {Buying greenhouse insurance: the economic costs of carbon dioxide emission limits},
  isbn      = {0-262-13280-X},
  publisher = {MIT press},
  url       = {https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262132800/buying-greenhouse-insurance/},
  year      = {1992}
}

@article{McCollum-2018,
  author   = {McCollum, David L. and Zhou, Wenji and Bertram, Christoph and de Boer, Harmen-Sytze and Bosetti, Valentina and Busch, Sebastian and Després, Jacques and Drouet, Laurent and Emmerling, Johannes and Fay, Marianne and Fricko, Oliver and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Gidden, Matthew and Harmsen, Mathijs and Huppmann, Daniel and Iyer, Gokul and Krey, Volker and Kriegler, Elmar and Nicolas, Claire and Pachauri, Shonali and Parkinson, Simon and Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel and Rafaj, Peter and Rao, Narasimha and Rozenberg, Julie and Schmitz, Andreas and Schoepp, Wolfgang and van Vuuren, Detlef and Riahi, Keywan},
  title    = {Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals},
  abstract = {Low-carbon investments are necessary for driving the energy system transformation that is called for by both the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here, using six global modelling frameworks, we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio required to transform the energy system will not be initiated by the current suite of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward 'well below 2 °C' instead sees low-carbon investments overtaking fossil investments globally by around 2025 or before and growing thereafter. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked upscaling in low-carbon capital beyond that of a 2 °C-consistent future. Actions consistent with an energy transformation would increase the costs of achieving the goals of energy access and food security, but reduce the costs of achieving air-quality goals.},
  doi      = {10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z},
  journal  = {Nature Energy},
  pages    = {589–599},
  volume   = {3},
  year     = {2018}
}

@article{Messner-Schrattenholzer-2000,
  author    = {Messner, Sabine and Schrattenholzer, Leo},
  title     = {MESSAGE-MACRO: Linking an Energy Supply Model with a Macroeconomic Module and Solving it Iteratively},
  abstract  = {MESSAGE-MACRO is the result of linking a macroeconomic model with a detailed energy supply model. The purpose of the linkage is to consistently reflect the influence of energy supply costs as calculated by the energy supply model in the optimal mix of production factors included in the macroeconomic model. In this article, we describe an automated link of two independently running models. The advantages of this set-up over a single, fully integrated model are two-fold: First, it is more flexible, leaving the constituent models intact for independent runs, thus making further model development an easier task. Second, the decomposed model solution benefits numerically from having the most non-linearities concentrated in the smaller of two modules. The emphasis of the paper is on methodology, but we also include an example demonstrating the feedback mechanisms of MESSAGE-MACRO by applying it to two global economic-energy-environment scenarios. The two scenarios are a reference scenario and a scenario that limits the global atmospheric carbon concentration to 550 ppmv. The scenarios are compared in terms of GDP, energy supply and demand, and energy prices.},
  address   = {IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria},
  journal   = {Energy - The International Journal},
  publisher = {RR-00-010. Reprinted from Energy - The International Journal, 25:267-282 [2000].},
  type      = {IIASA Research Report (Reprint)},
  url       = {https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/6258/},
  volume    = {25},
  year      = {2000}
}

@techreport{Messner-Strubegger-1995,
  author      = {Messner, Sabine and Strubegger, Manfred},
  title       = {User's Guide for MESSAGE III},
  address     = {IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria},
  institution = {IIASA},
  month       = {July},
  publisher   = {WP-95-069},
  type        = {IIASA Working Paper},
  url         = {https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4527/},
  year        = {1995}
}

@article{Sullivan-2013,
  author        = {Sullivan, Patrick and Krey, Volker and Riahi, Keywan},
  title         = {{Impacts of considering electric sector variability and reliability in the MESSAGE model}},
  abstract      = {This paper introduces a methodology for incorporating metrics for electric-sector reliability into a global Integrated Assessment Model. Using load, resource availability, and system dispatch data with high temporal resolution, we designed a set of reduced-form constraints that guide investment and usage decisions among power plants in IIASA's \{MESSAGE\} model. The analysis examines how such reliability metrics impact modeled system build-out, including in scenarios with greenhouse gas (GHG) limits. Scenarios show how carefully chosen model constraints can allow a flexible approach to treating integrations concerns of variable renewable technologies into the electric sector in a high-level energy model. },
  date-added    = {2016-09-25 07:18:29 +0000},
  date-modified = {2017-12-16 16:20:07 +0000},
  doi           = {10.1016/j.esr.2013.01.001},
  journal       = {Energy Strategy Reviews},
  number        = {3},
  pages         = {157–163},
  volume        = {1},
  year          = {2013}
}

@article{Zakeri-2022,
  author   = {Zakeri, Behnam and Hunt, Julian David and Laldjebaev, Murodbek and Krey, Volker and Vinca, Adriano and Parkinson, Simon and Riahi, Keywan},
  title    = {Role of energy storage in energy and water security in Central Asia},
  abstract = {Central Asia has faced major energy and water security challenges. Technically, water from the Pamir and Tian Shan Mountain ranges could be sufficient to meet the needs of the countries in the region, if there was no temporal mismatch between the availability of water for irrigation and electricity generation. While water is required for agriculture in downstream countries during the summer, demand for hydro electricity generation is mainly in the wintertime in upstream countries. With the aid of the open-source MESSAGEix energy systems optimization modelling framework, we study a renewable energy transition in the region through to 2050, considering innovative long duration water and energy storage solutions for optimal management of water and energy resources in different seasons. The modelling approach demonstrates that the proposed "dual water and energy storage scheme", with two different hydrological cycles for up- and down-stream regions, can guarantee enough water for energy generation in upstream countries in winter while ensuring water availability for irrigation downstream in summer. This scheme is economically feasible and, with further detailed analyses and geo-political considerations, it can serve to improve energy security and water resource management, towards achieving sustainable development goals in Central Asia.},
  doi      = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.est.2022.104587},
  issn     = {2352-152X},
  journal  = {Journal of Energy Storage},
  keywords = {Energy storage, Seasonal pumped hydropower storage, Water management, Renewable energy systems, Energy policy, Electricity storage, Energy model},
  pages    = {104587},
  url      = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352152X2200603X},
  volume   = {50},
  year     = {2022}
}

@article{Zipperle-Orthofer-2019,
  author         = {Zipperle, Thomas and Orthofer, Clara Luisa},
  title          = {d2ix: A Model Input-Data Management and Analysis Tool for MESSAGEix},
  abstract       = {Bottom-up integrated assessment models, like MESSAGEix, depend on the description of the capabilities and limitations of technological, economical and ecological parameters, and their development over long-time horizons. Even small models of a few nodes, technologies and model years require input-data sets involving several hundred thousand data points. Such data sets quickly become incomprehensible, which makes error detection, collaborative working and the interpretation of results challenging, especially for non-self-created models. In response to the resulting need for manageable, comprehensible, and traceable representation of input-data, we developed a Python-based spreadsheet interface (d2ix) that enables presentation and editing of model input-data in a concise form. By increasing accessibility and transparency of the model input-data, d2ix reduces barriers to entry for new modellers and simplifies collaborative working. This paper describes the methodology and introduces the open-source Python-package d2ix. The package is available under the Apache License, Version 2.0 on GitHub.},
  article-number = {1483},
  doi            = {10.3390/en12081483},
  issn           = {1996-1073},
  journal        = {Energies},
  number         = {8},
  volume         = {12},
  year           = {2019}
}

@article{Weber-2024,
author   = {Natália {de Assis Brasil Weber} and Julian David Hunt and Behnam Zakeri and Paulo {Smith Schneider} and Fernando Sérgio {Asfor Parente} and Augusto {Delavald Marques} and Amaro {Olímpio Pereira Junior}},
title    = {Seasonal pumped hydropower storage role in responding to climate change impacts on the Brazilian electrical sector},
abstract = {Since Brazil's major energy resources are renewable and directly related to climate factors, it is among the countries most likely of being affected by climate change. Given Brazil's high hydropower storage capacity and the strong seasonal patterns of its renewable resources, introducing Seasonal Pumped Hydropower Storage (SPHS) can help mitigate these challenges. To this end, a methodology is proposed that links the dynamic system-optimization model – MESSAGEix - to regional climate model simulations, called the Brazilian Electricity System MESSAGEix Model (BESMM). This model, with its detailed hydropower representation, is capable of integrating data from three climate change scenarios with the country's energy system. Climate change introduces a new dimension to this approach, as there is evidence of increasing the seasonal imbalance of variable renewable resources in Brazil. BESMM results suggest that SPHS can play a fundamental role in achieving a 100 % renewable matrix by 2100 in RCP 2.6 scenario, as well as enhancing the renewable energy endowment in scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. A reduction of up to 68 % of CO2 emissions is predicted in scenarios incorporating SPHS, compared to scenarios without SPHS.},
doi      = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.est.2024.111249},
issn     = {2352-152X},
journal  = {Journal of Energy Storage},
keywords = {Renewable energy, Climate change, Energy variability, Integrated Assessment Model},
pages    = {111249},
url      = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352152X2400834X},
volume   = {87},
year     = {2024}
}
