@article{pye_modelling_2021,
	title = {Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {1469-3062, 1752-7457},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2020.1824891},
	doi = {10.1080/14693062.2020.1824891},
	abstract = {Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed. A ﬁrst challenge is the need to represent new mitigation options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide suﬃcient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy eﬀectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses. Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches. There is a signiﬁcant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the role that the modelling community can play in providing eﬀective decision support may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Climate Policy},
	author = {Pye, S. and Broad, O. and Bataille, C. and Brockway, P. and Daly, H. E. and Freeman, R. and Gambhir, A. and Geden, O. and Rogan, F. and Sanghvi, S. and Tomei, J. and Vorushylo, I. and Watson, J.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2021},
	keywords = {\#lu},
	pages = {222--231},
	file = {Pye et al. - 2021 - Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requir.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\EQ8J3R7Q\\Pye et al. - 2021 - Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requir.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{keppo_exploring_2021,
	title = {Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1748-9326},
	shorttitle = {Exploring the possibility space},
	url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8},
	abstract = {Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticised under the umbrella of ‘IAMs’. Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (a) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (b) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (c) representation of capital markets, (d) energy-economy feedbacks, (e) policy scenarios, and (f) interpretation and use of model results.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	author = {Keppo, I and Butnar, I and Bauer, N and Caspani, M and Edelenbosch, O and Emmerling, J and Fragkos, P and Guivarch, C and Harmsen, M and Lefèvre, J and Le Gallic, T and Leimbach, M and McDowall, W and Mercure, J-F and Schaeffer, R and Trutnevyte, E and Wagner, F},
	month = may,
	year = {2021},
	keywords = {\#lu},
	pages = {053006},
	file = {Keppo et al. - 2021 - Exploring the possibility space taking stock of t.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\VGLZLENV\\Keppo et al. - 2021 - Exploring the possibility space taking stock of t.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{bataille_industry_2021,
	title = {Industry in a net-zero emissions world: {New} mitigation pathways, new supply chains, modelling needs and policy implications},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {26662787},
	shorttitle = {Industry in a net-zero emissions world},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2666278721000362},
	doi = {10.1016/j.egycc.2021.100059},
	abstract = {The objective implicit in the Paris Agreement, net-zero emissions around mid-century, has transformed the debate about heavy industry decarbonisation. Prior to Paris, the iron and steel, cement and concrete, chemicals, and other materials sectors were expected to reduce absolute emissions by perhaps half by 2050, through measures like energy efficiency, biofuels and carbon capture and storage. Global net-zero emissions means that these industries face far deeper transformation and potentially costly offsetting. It is also becoming clear, however, that very low emissions in heavy industry are technically possible using a spectrum of new options, including demand management, materials efficiency, and direct and green hydrogen-based electrification of primary materials production, facilitated by the falling cost of renewable electricity. Very low emissions pro­ duction chains mean changes to the location of the world’s heavy industry, including splitting processes into components to allow use of large-scale low-cost renewable energy or access to geological CO2 storage, with implications for trade. Existing models used for decarbonisation analysis typically do not represent the detail necessary for a full understanding of the range of mitigation options. Better representation of industry in systems modelling, along with analysis and learning about policy options and sequencing as industry transformations unfold, will be important for reaching net-zero and net-negative emissions in cost-effective and just ways. Key options, implications for the geography of heavy industry, and implications for systems modelling and policy are outlined here.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Energy and Climate Change},
	author = {Bataille, Chris and Nilsson, Lars J. and Jotzo, Frank},
	month = dec,
	year = {2021},
	keywords = {\#lu},
	pages = {100059},
	file = {Bataille et al. - 2021 - Industry in a net-zero emissions world New mitiga.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\LDIT3FZF\\Bataille et al. - 2021 - Industry in a net-zero emissions world New mitiga.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{pauliuk_odymopen_2020,
	title = {{ODYM}—{An} open software framework for studying dynamic material systems: {Principles}, implementation, and data structures},
	volume = {24},
	issn = {1088-1980, 1530-9290},
	shorttitle = {{ODYM}—{An} open software framework for studying dynamic material systems},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12952},
	doi = {10.1111/jiec.12952},
	abstract = {Material flow analysis (MFA) studies the stocks and flows of goods and substances in systems. The methods and algorithms of MFA have improved over the last few years, but a flexible platform that integrates recent modeling advances such as simultaneous consideration of the product, component, material and chemical element levels, lifetime models, and uncertainty treatment is not available. There is also no versatile data format for exchanging data between projects. This lack of research infrastructure is detrimental to scientific progress. To fill that gap, we propose a novel industrial ecology community model for MFA. The Open Dynamic Material Systems Model (ODYM) is an open source framework for material systems modeling programmed in Python. The description of systems, processes, stocks, flows, and parameters is object-based, which facilitates the development of modular software and testing routines for individual model blocks. ODYM MFA models can handle any depth of flow and stock specification: products, components, subcomponents, materials, alloys, waste, and chemical elements can be traced simultaneously. ODYM features a new data structure for material flow analysis; all input and output data are stored in a standardized file format and can thus be exchanged across projects. It also comes with an extended library for dynamic stock modeling. We present the features, design principles, software, and data structure of ODYM, describe its main methods and functions, and give an outlook on current and future applications.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},
	author = {Pauliuk, Stefan and Heeren, Niko},
	month = jun,
	year = {2020},
	keywords = {\#lu},
	pages = {446--458},
	file = {Pauliuk et Heeren - 2020 - ODYM—An open software framework for studying dynam.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\V84CJP9R\\Pauliuk et Heeren - 2020 - ODYM—An open software framework for studying dynam.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{pauliuk_linking_2021,
	title = {Linking service provision to material cycles: {A} new framework for studying the resource efficiency–climate change ({RECC}) nexus},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1088-1980, 1530-9290},
	shorttitle = {Linking service provision to material cycles},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13023},
	doi = {10.1111/jiec.13023},
	abstract = {Material production accounts for 23\% of all greenhouse gas emissions. More efficient use of materials—through decoupling of services that support human well-being from material use—is imperative as other emission mitigation options are expensive. An interdisciplinary scientific assessment of material efficiency and its links to service provision, material cycle management, and climate policy is needed to identify effective strategies and help design the policy framework required for their implementation. We present the resource efficiency–climate change (RECC) mitigation framework, a first step toward such a comprehensive assessment. RECC is based on dynamic material flow analysis and links the services provided (individual motorized transport and shelter) to the operation of in-use stocks of products (passenger vehicles and residential buildings), to their expansion and maintenance, and to their material cycles to model mitigation strategies and analyze trade-offs for environmental impacts along the products’ life cycle. A key innovation of RECC is the upscaling of product archetypes with different degrees of material and energy efficiency, which are simulated with engineering tools. We utilize RECC with augmented storylines of the shared socioeconomic pathways to describe future service demand and associated material requirements. Ten material efficiency strategies at different stages of the material cycle can be assessed by ramping up their implementation rates to the identified technical potentials. RECC provides scenario results for the life cycle impacts of ambitious service–material decoupling concurrent with energy system decarbonization, giving detailed insights on the RECC mitigation nexus to policy-makers worldwide.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},
	author = {Pauliuk, Stefan and Fishman, Tomer and Heeren, Niko and Berrill, Peter and Tu, Qingshi and Wolfram, Paul and Hertwich, Edgar G.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2021},
	keywords = {\#lu},
	pages = {260--273},
	file = {Pauliuk et al. - 2021 - Linking service provision to material cycles A ne.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\VRWFBECF\\Pauliuk et al. - 2021 - Linking service provision to material cycles A ne.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{hertwich_nullius_2018,
	title = {Nullius in {Verba1}: {Advancing} {Data} {Transparency} in {Industrial} {Ecology}},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {1088-1980, 1530-9290},
	shorttitle = {Nullius in {Verba1}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12738},
	doi = {10.1111/jiec.12738},
	abstract = {With the growth of the ﬁeld of industrial ecology (IE), research and results have increased signiﬁcantly leading to a desire for better utilization of the accumulated data in more sophisticated analyses. This implies the need for greater transparency, accessibility, and reusability of IE data, paralleling the considerable momentum throughout the sciences. The Data Transparency Task Force (DTTF) was convened by the governing council of the International Society for Industrial Ecology in late 2016 to propose best-practice guidelines and incentives for sharing data. In this article, the members of the DTTF present an overview of developments toward transparent and accessible data within the IE community and more broadly. We argue that increased transparency, accessibility, and reusability of IE data will enhance IE research by enabling more detailed and reproducible research, and also facilitate meta-analyses. These beneﬁts will make the results of IE work more timely. They will enable independent veriﬁcation of results, thus increasing their credibility and quality. They will also make the uptake of IE research results easier within IE and in other ﬁelds as well as by decision makers and sustainability practitioners, thus increasing the overall relevance and impact of the ﬁeld. Here, we present two initial actions intended to advance these goals: (1) a minimum publication requirement for IE research to be adopted by the Journal of Industrial Ecology; and (2) a system of optional data openness badges rewarding journal articles that contain transparent and accessible data. These actions will help the IE community to move toward data transparency and accessibility. We close with a discussion of potential future initiatives that could build on the minimum requirements and the data openness badge system.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},
	author = {Hertwich, Edgar and Heeren, Niko and Kuczenski, Brandon and Majeau‐Bettez, Guillaume and Myers, Rupert J. and Pauliuk, Stefan and Stadler, Konstantin and Lifset, Reid},
	month = feb,
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {\#lu},
	pages = {6--17},
	file = {Hertwich et al. - 2018 - Nullius in Verba1 Advancing Data Transparency in .pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\WKYGLXEY\\Hertwich et al. - 2018 - Nullius in Verba1 Advancing Data Transparency in .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{pauliuk_lifting_2015,
	title = {Lifting {Industrial} {Ecology} {Modeling} to a {New} {Level} of {Quality} and {Transparency}: {A} {Call} for {More} {Transparent} {Publications} and a {Collaborative} {Open} {Source} {Software} {Framework}},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {1088-1980, 1530-9290},
	shorttitle = {Lifting {Industrial} {Ecology} {Modeling} to a {New} {Level} of {Quality} and {Transparency}},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12316},
	doi = {10.1111/jiec.12316},
	abstract = {Industrial ecology (IE) is a maturing scientiﬁc discipline. The ﬁeld is becoming more data and computation intensive, which requires IE researchers to develop scientiﬁc software to tackle novel research questions. We review the current state of software programming and use in our ﬁeld and ﬁnd challenges regarding transparency, reproducibility, reusability, and ease of collaboration. Our response to that problem is fourfold: First, we propose how existing general principles for the development of good scientiﬁc software could be implemented in IE and related ﬁelds. Second, we argue that collaborating on open source software could make IE research more productive and increase its quality, and we present guidelines for the development and distribution of such software. Third, we call for stricter requirements regarding general access to the source code used to produce research results and scientiﬁc claims published in the IE literature. Fourth, we describe a set of open source modules for standard IE modeling tasks that represent our ﬁrst attempt at turning our recommendations into practice. We introduce a Python toolbox for IE that includes the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework Brightway2, the ecospold2matrix module that parses unallocated data in ecospold format, the pySUT and pymrio modules for building and analyzing multiregion input-output models and supply and use tables, and the dynamic stock model class for dynamic stock modeling. Widespread use of open access software can, at the same time, increase quality, transparency, and reproducibility of IE research.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},
	author = {Pauliuk, Stefan and Majeau‐Bettez, Guillaume and Mutel, Christopher L. and Steubing, Bernhard and Stadler, Konstantin},
	month = dec,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {\#lu},
	pages = {937--949},
	file = {Pauliuk et al. - 2015 - Lifting Industrial Ecology Modeling to a New Level.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\FPU4QJ7S\\Pauliuk et al. - 2015 - Lifting Industrial Ecology Modeling to a New Level.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{huppmann_pyam_2021,
	title = {pyam: {Analysis} and visualisation of integrated assessment and macro-energy scenarios},
	volume = {1},
	issn = {2732-5121},
	shorttitle = {pyam},
	url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10446008/},
	doi = {10.12688/openreseurope.13633.2},
	abstract = {The open-source Python package pyam provides a suite of features and methods for the analysis, validation and visualization of reference data and scenario results generated by integrated assessment models, macro-energy tools and other frameworks in the domain of energy transition, climate change mitigation and sustainable development. It bridges the gap between scenario processing and visualisation solutions that are "hard-wired" to specific modelling frameworks and generic data analysis or plotting packages.,  The package aims to facilitate reproducibility and reliability of scenario processing, validation and analysis by providing well-tested and documented methods for working with timeseries data in the context of climate policy and energy systems. It supports various data formats, including sub-annual resolution using continuous time representation and "representative timeslices".,  The pyam package can be useful for modelers generating scenario results using their own tools as well as researchers and analysts working with existing scenario ensembles such as those supporting the IPCC reports or produced in research projects. It is structured in a way that it can be applied irrespective of a user's domain expertise or level of Python knowledge, supporting experts as well as novice users.,  The code base is implemented following best practices of collaborative scientific-software development. This manuscript describes the design principles of the package and the types of data which can be handled. The usefulness of pyam is illustrated by highlighting several recent applications.},
	journal = {Open Research Europe},
	author = {Huppmann, Daniel and Gidden, Matthew J. and Nicholls, Zebedee and Hörsch, Jonas and Lamboll, Robin and Kishimoto, Paul N. and Burandt, Thorsten and Fricko, Oliver and Byers, Edward and Kikstra, Jarmo and Brinkerink, Maarten and Budzinski, Maik and Maczek, Florian and Zwickl-Bernhard, Sebastian and Welder, Lara and Álvarez Quispe, Erik Francisco and Smith, Christopher J.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2021},
	pmid = {37645194},
	pmcid = {PMC10446008},
	keywords = {\#vu},
	pages = {74},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\6IWYY4FT\\Huppmann et al. - 2021 - pyam Analysis and visualisation of integrated ass.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{pauliuk_industrial_2017,
	title = {Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3148},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate3148},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Pauliuk, Stefan and Arvesen, Anders and Stadler, Konstantin and Hertwich, Edgar G.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {\#lu},
	pages = {13--20},
	file = {Pauliuk et al. - 2017 - Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\IATGCS5U\\Pauliuk et al. - 2017 - Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{capellan-perez_medeas_2020,
	title = {{MEDEAS}: a new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {1754-5692, 1754-5706},
	shorttitle = {{MEDEAS}},
	url = {http://xlink.rsc.org/?DOI=C9EE02627D},
	doi = {10.1039/C9EE02627D},
	abstract = {Description of the open-source MEDEAS integrated assessment modeling framework, which focuses on the biophysical and economic dimensions, restrictions and interactions arising during energy transitions.
          , 
            A diversity of integrated assessment models (IAMs) coexists due to the different approaches developed to deal with the complex interactions, high uncertainties and knowledge gaps within the environment and human societies. This paper describes the open-source MEDEAS modeling framework, which has been developed with the aim of informing decision-making to achieve the transition to sustainable energy systems with a focus on biophysical, economic, social and technological restrictions and tackling some of the limitations identified in the current IAMs. MEDEAS models include the following relevant characteristics: representation of biophysical constraints to energy availability; modeling of the mineral and energy investments for the energy transition, allowing a dynamic assessment of the potential mineral scarcities and computation of the net energy available to society; consistent representation of climate change damages with climate assessments by natural scientists; integration of detailed sectoral economic structure (input–output analysis) within a system dynamics approach; energy shifts driven by physical scarcity; and a rich set of socioeconomic and environmental impact indicators. The potentialities and novel insights that this framework brings are illustrated by the simulation of four variants of current trends with the MEDEAS-world model: the consideration of alternative plausible assumptions and methods, combined with the feedback-rich structure of the model, reveal dynamics and implications absent in classical models. Our results suggest that the continuation of current trends will drive significant biophysical scarcities and impacts which will most likely derive in regionalization (priority to security concerns and trade barriers), conflict, and ultimately, a severe global crisis which may lead to the collapse of our modern civilization. Despite depicting a much more worrying future than conventional projections of current trends, we however believe it is a more realistic counterfactual scenario that will allow the design of improved alternative sustainable pathways in future work.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Energy \& Environmental Science},
	author = {Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo and De Blas, Ignacio and Nieto, Jaime and De Castro, Carlos and Miguel, Luis Javier and Carpintero, Óscar and Mediavilla, Margarita and Lobejón, Luis Fernando and Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia and Rodrigo, Paula and Frechoso, Fernando and Álvarez-Antelo, David},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {986--1017},
	file = {Capellán-Pérez et al. - 2020 - MEDEAS a new modeling framework integrating globa.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\6F2DZSXX\\Capellán-Pérez et al. - 2020 - MEDEAS a new modeling framework integrating globa.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{desing_mobilizing_nodate,
	title = {Mobilizing materials to enable a fast energy transition: a conceptual framework},
	abstract = {Limiting climate heating while meeting basic needs of all necessitates eliminating fossil carbon emissions. This paper discusses the dynamics of mobilizing materials required for large-scale deployment of renewable energy, which entail: 1) availability of resources in the environment and technosphere; 2) accessibility, which depends on resource quality and available technologies; 3) processability, which depends on energy availability, processing capacity, and environmental impacts on planetary boundaries; and 4) operability, which depends on social acceptance and geopolitical agreements. Also, materials can be mobilized through four routes: 1) increasing primary production; 2) diverting existing primary production; 3) repurposing existing in-use stocks; and 4) re-mining previous wastes and emissions. The interplay of these enabling factors determines the maximum possible rate of material mobilization and thus of the energy transition itself. This paper presents and discusses a framework to explore joint energy-material transformations, enabling to consider material aspects in transition modelling and guide technological developments.},
	language = {en},
	author = {Desing, Harald and Widmer, Rolf and Bardi, Ugo and Beylot, Antoine and Billy, Romain G and Gasser, Martin and Monfort, Daniel and Müller, Daniel B and Raugei, Marco and Remmen, Kirsten and Schenker, Vanessa and Schlesier, Hauke and Valdivia, Sonia and Wäger, Patrick},
	file = {Desing et al. - Mobilizing materials to enable a fast energy trans.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\AJMQI5WW\\Desing et al. - Mobilizing materials to enable a fast energy trans.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{steffen_planetary_2015,
	title = {Planetary boundaries: {Guiding} human development on a changing planet},
	volume = {347},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	shorttitle = {Planetary boundaries},
	url = {https://www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1259855},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1259855},
	language = {en},
	number = {6223},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Steffen, W. and Richardson, K. and Rockstrom, J. and Cornell, S. E. and Fetzer, I. and Bennett, E. M. and Biggs, R. and Carpenter, S. R. and de Vries, W. and de Wit, C. A. and Folke, C. and Gerten, D. and Heinke, J. and Mace, G. M. and Persson, L. M. and Ramanathan, V. and Reyers, B. and Sorlin, S.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {1259855--1259855},
	file = {Steffen et al. - 2015 - Planetary boundaries Guiding human development on.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\KTQMPR2N\\Steffen et al. - 2015 - Planetary boundaries Guiding human development on.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{rockstrom_safe_2023,
	title = {Safe and just {Earth} system boundaries},
	volume = {619},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06083-8},
	doi = {10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked
              1–3
              , yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently
              4,5
              . Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)
              4
              . The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7968},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Rockström, Johan and Gupta, Joyeeta and Qin, Dahe and Lade, Steven J. and Abrams, Jesse F. and Andersen, Lauren S. and Armstrong McKay, David I. and Bai, Xuemei and Bala, Govindasamy and Bunn, Stuart E. and Ciobanu, Daniel and DeClerck, Fabrice and Ebi, Kristie and Gifford, Lauren and Gordon, Christopher and Hasan, Syezlin and Kanie, Norichika and Lenton, Timothy M. and Loriani, Sina and Liverman, Diana M. and Mohamed, Awaz and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Obura, David and Ospina, Daniel and Prodani, Klaudia and Rammelt, Crelis and Sakschewski, Boris and Scholtens, Joeri and Stewart-Koster, Ben and Tharammal, Thejna and Van Vuuren, Detlef and Verburg, Peter H. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Zimm, Caroline and Bennett, Elena M. and Bringezu, Stefan and Broadgate, Wendy and Green, Pamela A. and Huang, Lei and Jacobson, Lisa and Ndehedehe, Christopher and Pedde, Simona and Rocha, Juan and Scheffer, Marten and Schulte-Uebbing, Lena and De Vries, Wim and Xiao, Cunde and Xu, Chi and Xu, Xinwu and Zafra-Calvo, Noelia and Zhang, Xin},
	month = jul,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {102--111},
	file = {Rockström et al. - 2023 - Safe and just Earth system boundaries.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\WUSSSCXK\\Rockström et al. - 2023 - Safe and just Earth system boundaries.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{raworth_safe_nodate,
	title = {A {Safe} and {Just} {Space} for {Humanity}: {Can} we live within the doughnut?},
	isbn = {978-1-78077-059-8},
	shorttitle = {A {Safe} and {Just} {Space} for {Humanity}},
	language = {en},
	publisher = {Oxfam},
	author = {Raworth, Kate},
	note = {Google-Books-ID: tSikdAjHPf8C},
}

@article{hickel_national_2022,
	title = {National responsibility for ecological breakdown: a fair-shares assessment of resource use, 1970–2017},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {25425196},
	shorttitle = {National responsibility for ecological breakdown},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2542519622000444},
	doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00044-4},
	abstract = {Background Human impacts on earth-system processes are overshooting several planetary boundaries, driving a crisis of ecological breakdown. This crisis is being caused in large part by global resource extraction, which has increased dramatically over the past half century. We propose a novel method for quantifying national responsibility for ecological breakdown by assessing nations’ cumulative material use in excess of equitable and sustainable boundaries.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	journal = {The Lancet Planetary Health},
	author = {Hickel, Jason and O’Neill, Daniel W and Fanning, Andrew L and Zoomkawala, Huzaifa},
	month = apr,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {e342--e349},
	file = {Hickel et al. - 2022 - National responsibility for ecological breakdown .pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\MTKGPHCQ\\Hickel et al. - 2022 - National responsibility for ecological breakdown .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{fell_energy_2017,
	title = {Energy services: {A} conceptual review},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {22146296},
	shorttitle = {Energy services},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629617300518},
	doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2017.02.010},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Energy Research \& Social Science},
	author = {Fell, Michael James},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {129--140},
	file = {Fell - 2017 - Energy services A conceptual review.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\JBRMITIR\\Fell - 2017 - Energy services A conceptual review.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{seto_carbon_2016,
	title = {Carbon {Lock}-{In}: {Types}, {Causes}, and {Policy} {Implications}},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {1543-5938, 1545-2050},
	shorttitle = {Carbon {Lock}-{In}},
	url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085934},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085934},
	abstract = {Existing technologies, institutions, and behavioral norms together act to constrain the rate and magnitude of carbon emissions reductions in the coming decades. The inertia of carbon emissions due to such mutually reinforcing physical, economic, and social constraints is referred to as carbon lock-in. Carbon lock-in is a special case of path dependency, which is common in the evolution of complex systems. However, carbon lock-in is particularly prone to entrenchment given the large capital costs, long infrastructure lifetimes, and interrelationships between the socioeconomic and technical systems involved. Further, the urgency of efforts to avoid dangerous climate change exacerbates the liability of even small lock-in risks. Although carbon lock-in has been recognized for years, efforts to characterize the types and causes of carbon lock-in, or to quantitatively assess and evaluate its policy implications, have been limited and scattered across a number of different disciplines. This systematic review of the literature synthesizes what is known about the types and causes of carbon lock-in, including the scale, magnitude, and longevity of the effects, and policy implications. We identify three main types of carbon lock-in and describe how they coevolve: (a) infrastructural and technological, (b) institutional, and (c) behavioral. Although each type of lock-in has its own set of processes, all three are tightly intertwined and contribute to the inertia of carbon emissions. We outline the conditions, opportunities, and strategies for fostering transitions toward less-carbon-intensive emissions trajectories. We conclude by proposing a carbon lock-in research agenda that can help bridge the gaps between science, knowledge, and policy-making.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Annual Review of Environment and Resources},
	author = {Seto, Karen C. and Davis, Steven J. and Mitchell, Ronald B. and Stokes, Eleanor C. and Unruh, Gregory and Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana},
	month = nov,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {425--452},
	file = {Seto et al. - 2016 - Carbon Lock-In Types, Causes, and Policy Implicat.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\XSPUU5K3\\Seto et al. - 2016 - Carbon Lock-In Types, Causes, and Policy Implicat.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{elhacham_global_2020,
	title = {Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass},
	volume = {588},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-3010-5},
	doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-3010-5},
	language = {en},
	number = {7838},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Elhacham, Emily and Ben-Uri, Liad and Grozovski, Jonathan and Bar-On, Yinon M. and Milo, Ron},
	month = dec,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {442--444},
	file = {Elhacham et al. - 2020 - Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\54MF4EHC\\Elhacham et al. - 2020 - Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{whiting_resource_2022,
	title = {The resource service cascade: {A} conceptual framework for the integration of ecosystem, energy and material services},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {22114645},
	shorttitle = {The resource service cascade},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2211464521000440},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envdev.2021.100647},
	abstract = {Sustainable resource use can be approached from a service perspective, via ecosystem services, energy services or material services. In this paper, we propose an overarching conceptual framework, with which to combine all three service theories and practices. To do this, we review and adapt Potschin and Haines-Young’s ecosystem service cascade to create a “resource service cascade” and a classification system. By focusing on a resource’s function in society rather than its source, we offer an alternative conceptualisation of the tangible aspects of what an ecosystem and socioeconomic system can provide human populations. We rework various definitions to over­ come some of the challenges that emerge when accounting for either natural processes or so­ cioeconomic processes but never both simultaneously. To demonstrate how the resource service cascade works conceptually, we highlight the contributions of resources when used in an illu­ mination system/structure through to visual comfort (the service), need satisfiers and some tangible aspects of wellbeing. Future research, in the form of case studies, is required to oper­ ationalise the resource service cascade so that its usefulness can be empirically tested.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Environmental Development},
	author = {Whiting, Kai and Carmona, Luis Gabriel and Carrasco, Angeles},
	month = mar,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {100647},
	file = {Whiting et al. - 2022 - The resource service cascade A conceptual framewo.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\5TDNPD5T\\Whiting et al. - 2022 - The resource service cascade A conceptual framewo.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{thacker_infrastructure_2019,
	title = {Infrastructure for sustainable development},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {2398-9629},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0256-8},
	doi = {10.1038/s41893-019-0256-8},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Nature Sustainability},
	author = {Thacker, Scott and Adshead, Daniel and Fay, Marianne and Hallegatte, Stéphane and Harvey, Mark and Meller, Hendrik and O’Regan, Nicholas and Rozenberg, Julie and Watkins, Graham and Hall, Jim W.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {324--331},
	file = {Thacker et al. - 2019 - Infrastructure for sustainable development.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\QC2Q848K\\Thacker et al. - 2019 - Infrastructure for sustainable development.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{haberl_contributions_2019,
	title = {Contributions of sociometabolic research to sustainability science},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {2398-9629},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0225-2},
	doi = {10.1038/s41893-019-0225-2},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Nature Sustainability},
	author = {Haberl, Helmut and Wiedenhofer, Dominik and Pauliuk, Stefan and Krausmann, Fridolin and Müller, Daniel B. and Fischer-Kowalski, Marina},
	month = feb,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {173--184},
	file = {Haberl et al. - 2019 - Contributions of sociometabolic research to sustai.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\5IEUEKVX\\Haberl et al. - 2019 - Contributions of sociometabolic research to sustai.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{van_beek_anticipating_2020,
	title = {Anticipating futures through models: the rise of {Integrated} {Assessment} {Modelling} in the climate science-policy interface since 1970},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {09593780},
	shorttitle = {Anticipating futures through models},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378020307743},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102191},
	abstract = {Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have gained a prominent role in the climate science-policy interface. The article reconstructs the evolution of IAMs and their changing role in this interface, investigating how and why IAMs have become so prominent. Based on literature analysis, quantitative document analysis and semistructured interviews, we describe the historic evolution of the interactions between IAMs and policy-making between 1970 and 2015. We identify five historic phases in which IAMs played distinct mediating roles be­ tween science and policy, succeeding to adjust their scenario efforts to the continuously changing demands for knowledge from the policy community. In explaining the prominent role of IAMs, we differentiate between background conditions (material and sociological) and more contextual factors, most notably the flexible, hybrid and broad nature of IAMs as well as the pro-active character of the IAM community to enhance their policy relevance. We draw on the notion of institutional work to explain this success. In light of the urgency of responding to the climate crisis, we suggest that the IAM community may expand their scope of anticipated futures and consider engaging a wider range of publics and societal stakeholders beyond the science-policy interface.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Van Beek, Lisette and Hajer, Maarten and Pelzer, Peter and Van Vuuren, Detlef and Cassen, Christophe},
	month = nov,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {102191},
	file = {Van Beek et al. - 2020 - Anticipating futures through models the rise of I.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\B483FIV5\\Van Beek et al. - 2020 - Anticipating futures through models the rise of I.pdf:application/pdf},
}


@article{fleiter_barriers_2011,
	title = {Barriers to energy efficiency in industrial bottom-up energy demand models—{A} review},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {13640321},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032111001286},
	doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2011.03.025},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
	author = {Fleiter, Tobias and Worrell, Ernst and Eichhammer, Wolfgang},
	month = aug,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {3099--3111},
	file = {Fleiter et al. - 2011 - Barriers to energy efficiency in industrial bottom.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\M7CSUHUN\\Fleiter et al. - 2011 - Barriers to energy efficiency in industrial bottom.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{fleiter_methodology_2018,
	title = {A methodology for bottom-up modelling of energy transitions in the industry sector: {The} {FORECAST} model},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {2211467X},
	shorttitle = {A methodology for bottom-up modelling of energy transitions in the industry sector},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2211467X18300890},
	doi = {10.1016/j.esr.2018.09.005},
	abstract = {Bottom-up energy models can support strategic decision-making and can help to manage an efficient transition to a low-carbon energy system. The manufacturing industry accounted for about 19\% of EU-wide greenhouse gas emissions in 2014, which underlines the importance of this sector for model-based decarbonisation assessments. This paper describes the methodology of the FORECAST model. FORECAST is a bottom-up simulation model used to develop long-term scenarios for the future energy demand of industry, services and household sectors. In this study, we discuss the model in the light of developing transition scenarios for the decarbonisation of the industry sector. In doing so, we focus on the model's structure and simulation algorithms, and provide illustrative results.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Energy Strategy Reviews},
	author = {Fleiter, Tobias and Rehfeldt, Matthias and Herbst, Andrea and Elsland, Rainer and Klingler, Anna-Lena and Manz, Pia and Eidelloth, Stefan},
	month = nov,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {237--254},
	file = {Fleiter et al. - 2018 - A methodology for bottom-up modelling of energy tr.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\YEHL3QWE\\Fleiter et al. - 2018 - A methodology for bottom-up modelling of energy tr.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{fais_critical_2016,
	title = {The critical role of the industrial sector in reaching long-term emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable targets},
	volume = {162},
	issn = {03062619},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306261915013483},
	doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.10.112},
	abstract = {This paper evaluates the critical contribution of the industry sector to long-term decarbonisation, efﬁciency and renewable energy policy targets. Its methodological novelty is the incorporation of a process-oriented modelling approach based on a comprehensive technology database for the industry sector in a national energy system model for the UK (UKTM), allowing quantiﬁcation of the role of both decarbonisation of upstream energy vectors and of mitigation options in the industrial sub-categories. This enhanced model is then applied in a comparative policy scenario analysis that explores various target dimensions on emission mitigation, renewable energy and energy efﬁciency at both a national and European level. The results show that ambitious emission cuts in the industry sector of up to 77\% until 2050 compared to 2010 can be achieved. Moreover, with a reduction in industrial energy demand of up to 31\% between 2010 and 2050, the sector is essential for achieving the overall efﬁciency commitments. The industry sector also makes a moderate contribution to the expansion of renewable energies mostly through the use of biomass for low-temperature heating services. However, additional sub-targets on renewable sources and energy efﬁciency need to be assessed critically, as they can signiﬁcantly distort the cost-efﬁciency of the long-term mitigation pathway.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Applied Energy},
	author = {Fais, Birgit and Sabio, Nagore and Strachan, Neil},
	month = jan,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {699--712},
	file = {Fais et al. - 2016 - The critical role of the industrial sector in reac.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\JYPEMFHC\\Fais et al. - 2016 - The critical role of the industrial sector in reac.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{gasser_negative_2015,
	title = {Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °{C}},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {2041-1723},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8958},
	doi = {10.1038/ncomms8958},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Nature Communications},
	author = {Gasser, T. and Guivarch, C. and Tachiiri, K. and Jones, C. D. and Ciais, P.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {7958},
	file = {Gasser et al. - 2015 - Negative emissions physically needed to keep globa.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\WTGPRRAV\\Gasser et al. - 2015 - Negative emissions physically needed to keep globa.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{vaughan_expert_2016,
	title = {Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1748-9326},
	url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095003},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095003},
	language = {en},
	number = {9},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	author = {Vaughan, Naomi E and Gough, Clair},
	month = sep,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {095003},
	file = {Vaughan et Gough - 2016 - Expert assessment concludes negative emissions sce.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\CGR7SX3D\\Vaughan et Gough - 2016 - Expert assessment concludes negative emissions sce.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{realmonte_inter-model_2019,
	title = {An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {2041-1723},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10842-5},
	doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-10842-5},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              The feasibility of large-scale biological CO
              2
              removal to achieve stringent climate targets remains unclear. Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) offers an alternative negative emissions technology (NET) option. Here we conduct the first inter-model comparison on the role of DACCS in 1.5 and 2 °C scenarios, under a variety of techno-economic assumptions. Deploying DACCS significantly reduces mitigation costs, and it complements rather than substitutes other NETs. The key factor limiting DACCS deployment is the rate at which it can be scaled up. Our scenarios’ average DACCS scale-up rates of 1.5 GtCO
              2
              /yr would require considerable sorbent production and up to 300 EJ/yr of energy input by 2100. The risk of assuming that DACCS can be deployed at scale, and finding it to be subsequently unavailable, leads to a global temperature overshoot of up to 0.8 °C. DACCS should therefore be developed and deployed alongside, rather than instead of, other mitigation options.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Nature Communications},
	author = {Realmonte, Giulia and Drouet, Laurent and Gambhir, Ajay and Glynn, James and Hawkes, Adam and Köberle, Alexandre C. and Tavoni, Massimo},
	month = jul,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {3277},
	file = {Realmonte et al. - 2019 - An inter-model assessment of the role of direct ai.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\26M98JBA\\Realmonte et al. - 2019 - An inter-model assessment of the role of direct ai.pdf:application/pdf},
}


@article{jacques_assessing_2022,
	title = {Assessing the {Economic} {Consequences} of an {Energy} {Transition} {Through} a {Biophysical} {Stock}-{Flow} {Consistent} {Model}},
	issn = {1556-5068},
	url = {https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=4174917},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4174917},
	abstract = {The biophysical foundations of socio-economic systems are underrepresented in the vast majority of macroeconomic models. This lack is particularly troublesome when considering the links between energy, matter and the economy in the context of the energy transition. As a remedy, we present here a biophysical stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model calibrated at the global scale, that combines detailed bottom-up estimates for the high capital intensity of renewable energies and the decreasing energy return on investment (EROI) of fossil fuels. We find that the completion of a global energy transition scenario compatible with the 1.5 ◦C objective of the Paris Agreement leads to a decrease of the system’s EROI and to high investment share, employment and inflation trends, characteristic of a ‘‘war economy’’. Our results further indicate that a slower growth rate eases the transition, and call for further work on post-growth scenarios studies.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
	author = {Jacques, Pierre and Delannoy, Louis and Andrieu, Baptiste and Yilmaz, Devrim and Jeanmart, Hervé and Godin, Antoine},
	year = {2022},
	file = {Jacques et al. - 2022 - Assessing the Economic Consequences of an Energy T.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\XXM483JI\\Jacques et al. - 2022 - Assessing the Economic Consequences of an Energy T.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{rosen_economics_2015,
	title = {The economics of mitigating climate change: {What} can we know?},
	volume = {91},
	issn = {00401625},
	shorttitle = {The economics of mitigating climate change},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0040162514000468},
	doi = {10.1016/j.techfore.2014.01.013},
	abstract = {The long-term economics of mitigating climate change over the long run has played a high profile role in the most important analyses of climate change in the last decade, namely the Stern Report and the IPCC's Fourth Assessment. However, the various kinds of uncertainties that affect these economic results raise serious questions about whether or not the net costs and benefits of mitigating climate change over periods as long as 50 to 100 years can be known to such a level of accuracy that they should be reported to policymakers and the public. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the derivation of these estimates of the long-term economic costs and benefits of mitigation. It particularly focuses on the role of technological change, especially for energy efficiency technologies, in making the net economic results of mitigating climate change unknowable over the long run.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change},
	author = {Rosen, Richard A. and Guenther, Edeltraud},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	pages = {93--106},
	file = {Rosen et Guenther - 2015 - The economics of mitigating climate change What c.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\C7IS298N\\Rosen et Guenther - 2015 - The economics of mitigating climate change What c.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{oneill_roads_2017,
	title = {The roads ahead: {Narratives} for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {09593780},
	shorttitle = {The roads ahead},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378015000060},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004},
	abstract = {Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options for mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pathways: the SSP narratives, a set of ﬁve qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to (1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {O’Neill, Brian C. and Kriegler, Elmar and Ebi, Kristie L. and Kemp-Benedict, Eric and Riahi, Keywan and Rothman, Dale S. and Van Ruijven, Bas J. and Van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Birkmann, Joern and Kok, Kasper and Levy, Marc and Solecki, William},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {169--180},
	file = {O’Neill et al. - 2017 - The roads ahead Narratives for shared socioeconom.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\UDP5GN33\\O’Neill et al. - 2017 - The roads ahead Narratives for shared socioeconom.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{riahi_shared_2017,
	title = {The {Shared} {Socioeconomic} {Pathways} and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: {An} overview},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {09593780},
	shorttitle = {The {Shared} {Socioeconomic} {Pathways} and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378016300681},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Riahi, Keywan and Van Vuuren, Detlef P. and Kriegler, Elmar and Edmonds, Jae and O’Neill, Brian C. and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Bauer, Nico and Calvin, Katherine and Dellink, Rob and Fricko, Oliver and Lutz, Wolfgang and Popp, Alexander and Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo and Kc, Samir and Leimbach, Marian and Jiang, Leiwen and Kram, Tom and Rao, Shilpa and Emmerling, Johannes and Ebi, Kristie and Hasegawa, Tomoko and Havlik, Petr and Humpenöder, Florian and Da Silva, Lara Aleluia and Smith, Steve and Stehfest, Elke and Bosetti, Valentina and Eom, Jiyong and Gernaat, David and Masui, Toshihiko and Rogelj, Joeri and Strefler, Jessica and Drouet, Laurent and Krey, Volker and Luderer, Gunnar and Harmsen, Mathijs and Takahashi, Kiyoshi and Baumstark, Lavinia and Doelman, Jonathan C. and Kainuma, Mikiko and Klimont, Zbigniew and Marangoni, Giacomo and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Obersteiner, Michael and Tabeau, Andrzej and Tavoni, Massimo},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {153--168},
	file = {Riahi et al. - 2017 - The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\KLAQVCKY\\Riahi et al. - 2017 - The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{oneill_good_2018,
	title = {A good life for all within planetary boundaries},
	volume = {1},
	issn = {2398-9629},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0021-4},
	doi = {10.1038/s41893-018-0021-4},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Nature Sustainability},
	author = {O’Neill, Daniel W. and Fanning, Andrew L. and Lamb, William F. and Steinberger, Julia K.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {88--95},
	file = {O’Neill et al. - 2018 - A good life for all within planetary boundaries.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\W6PY74EE\\O’Neill et al. - 2018 - A good life for all within planetary boundaries.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{edelenbosch_comparing_2017,
	title = {Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models},
	volume = {122},
	issn = {03605442},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544217300178},
	doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.017},
	abstract = {The industry sector is a major energy consumer and GHG emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better understand the variations in the projected industrial pathways for both baseline and mitigation scenarios, we compare key input and structure assumptions used in energy-models in relation to the modelled sectors’ mitigation potential. It is shown that although all models show similar trends in a baseline scenario where industrial energy demand increases steadily in the short-term, after 2050, energy demand spans a wide range across the models (between 203451 EJ/yr). In Non-OECD countries, the sectors energy intensity is projected to decline relatively rapidly but in the 2010-2050 period this is offset by economic growth.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Energy},
	author = {Edelenbosch, O.Y. and Kermeli, K. and Crijns-Graus, W. and Worrell, E. and Bibas, R. and Fais, B. and Fujimori, S. and Kyle, P. and Sano, F. and Van Vuuren, D.P.},
	month = mar,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {701--710},
	file = {Edelenbosch et al. - 2017 - Comparing projections of industrial energy demand .pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\2XAPV2JW\\Edelenbosch et al. - 2017 - Comparing projections of industrial energy demand .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{fishman_comprehensive_2021,
	title = {A comprehensive set of global scenarios of housing, mobility, and material efficiency for material cycles and energy systems modeling},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1088-1980, 1530-9290},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13122},
	doi = {10.1111/jiec.13122},
	abstract = {Scenario-based assessments are a useful tool to explore unknown futures and inform decision makers and the public of the consequences of different courses of action. Scenario developments in industrial ecology have focused on disparate components of the socioeconomic metabolism and case studies, and few efforts of comprehensive and cumulative scenario formulation are documented. Many important, empirically derived relationships between material cycles, end-use services, and energy use are relevant to global scenario modeling efforts, for example, of integrated assessment models (IAMs), which do not routinely describe material cycles or the life-cycle impacts of various technology shifts. These inconsistent depictions of material cycles and their environmental impacts hinder the assessment of sustainable development strategies such as demand-side sufficiency, material efficiency, and energy efficiency. We developed three highly detailed scenarios covering 20 global regions to 2060 for the service provisioning of dwelling area and personal transport grounded in salient building and vehicle operation parameters. Our scenarios are based on, and interface with, the Low Energy Demand (LED) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1 and SSP2) narratives. The results comprise scenario-, region-, and period-specific narratives and corresponding parameter values, including per-capita floor space and vehicle stocks, building and vehicle archetype mixes, passenger-km, vehicle-km, vehicle occupancy rates, and implementation potentials of nine material efficiency strategies. The explicit storyline extension approach presented here is an alternative to the aggregate GDPdriven or historical trend extrapolations of service or energy demands. We describe the scenario formulation processes, resulting parameters, their applications, and offer an outlook for prospective sustainability models. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},
	author = {Fishman, Tomer and Heeren, Niko and Pauliuk, Stefan and Berrill, Peter and Tu, Qingshi and Wolfram, Paul and Hertwich, Edgar G.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {305--320},
	file = {Fishman et al. - 2021 - A comprehensive set of global scenarios of housing.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\52ZBR59W\\Fishman et al. - 2021 - A comprehensive set of global scenarios of housing.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{dellink_long-term_2017,
	title = {Long-term economic growth projections in the {Shared} {Socioeconomic} {Pathways}},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {09593780},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378015000837},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.004},
	abstract = {Long-term economic scenarios (up to 2100) are needed as a basis to explore possible different futures for major environmental challenges, including climate change. Given the high level of uncertainty involved, such scenarios would need to span a wide range of possible growth trajectories. The recently developed storylines of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide a basis for making such projections. This paper describes a consistent methodology to derive (per capita) GDP trend pathways on a country basis. The methodology is based on a convergence process and places emphasis on the key drivers of economic growth in the long run: population, total factor productivity, physical capital, employment and human capital, and energy and fossil fuel resources (speciﬁcally oil and gas). The paper uses this methodology to derive country-level economic growth projections for 184 countries. The paper also investigates the inﬂuence of short-term growth rate estimates on the long-term income levels in various countries. It does so by comparing long-term projections based on short-term forecasts from 2011 with the projections based on forecasts from 2013. This highlights the effects of the recent economic crisis and uncertainty in short term developments on longer term growth trends. The projections are subject to large uncertainties, particularly for the later decades, and disregard a wide range of country-speciﬁc drivers of economic growth that are outside the narrow economic framework, such as external shocks, governance barriers and feedbacks from environmental damage. Hence, they should be interpreted with sufﬁcient care and not be treated as predictions.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Dellink, Rob and Chateau, Jean and Lanzi, Elisa and Magné, Bertrand},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {200--214},
	file = {Dellink et al. - 2017 - Long-term economic growth projections in the Share.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\5W7IZMLE\\Dellink et al. - 2017 - Long-term economic growth projections in the Share.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{grubert_designing_2022,
	title = {Designing the mid‐transition: {A} review of medium‐term challenges for coordinated decarbonization in the {United} {States}},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {1757-7780, 1757-7799},
	shorttitle = {Designing the mid‐transition},
	url = {https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.768},
	doi = {10.1002/wcc.768},
	abstract = {Decarbonizing the energy system is critical for addressing climate change. Given the dominance of fossil fuels in the energy system, decarbonization requires rapid and significant industrial transition of the energy supply at scale. This includes explicit and coordinated plans not only for zero carbon phase-in, but for fossil carbon phase-out. Even very rapid decarbonization will likely take decades, leading to a medium-term future where the conventional, fossil-based energy system coexists with a new, zero-carbon energy system. Each imposes operational constraints on the other: what we call the mid-transition. Notably, this coexistence means that the new, zero-carbon system will develop under fossil carbon system constraints. The mid-transition will therefore likely require specific analytical metrics designed to support decision making under dynamic and uncertain conditions. Many aspects of transition will be felt, and shaped, directly by individuals because of our direct interactions with energy systems. Even rare missteps are likely to have significant and potentially system designrelevant impacts on perception, political support, and implementation. Comparisons of the new system to the old system are likely to rest on experience of a world less affected by climate change, such that concerns about lower reliability, higher costs, and other challenges might be perceived as inherent to zero-carbon systems, versus energy systems facing consequences of climate change and longterm underinvestment. This review assesses and evaluates medium-term challenges associated with the mid-transition in the United States, emphasizing the need for explicit planning for joint and coordinated phase-in and phase-out.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	journal = {WIREs Climate Change},
	author = {Grubert, Emily and Hastings‐Simon, Sara},
	month = may,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {e768},
	file = {Grubert et Hastings‐Simon - 2022 - Designing the mid‐transition A review of medium‐t.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\UYVHJV5B\\Grubert et Hastings‐Simon - 2022 - Designing the mid‐transition A review of medium‐t.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{davis_net-zero_2018,
	title = {Net-zero emissions energy systems},
	volume = {360},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aas9793},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aas9793},
	abstract = {Path to zero carbon emissions
            
              Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis
              et al.
              review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply. Current technologies and pathways show promise, but integration of now-discrete energy sectors and industrial processes is vital to achieve minimal emissions.
            
            
              Science
              , this issue p.
              eaas9793
            
          , 
            
              BACKGROUND
              
                Net emissions of CO
                2
                by human activities—including not only energy services and industrial production but also land use and agriculture—must approach zero in order to stabilize global mean temperature. Energy services such as light-duty transportation, heating, cooling, and lighting may be relatively straightforward to decarbonize by electrifying and generating electricity from variable renewable energy sources (such as wind and solar) and dispatchable (“on-demand”) nonrenewable sources (including nuclear energy and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage). However, other energy services essential to modern civilization entail emissions that are likely to be more difficult to fully eliminate. These difficult-to-decarbonize energy services include aviation, long-distance transport, and shipping; production of carbon-intensive structural materials such as steel and cement; and provision of a reliable electricity supply that meets varying demand. Moreover, demand for such services and products is projected to increase substantially over this century. The long-lived infrastructure built today, for better or worse, will shape the future.
              
              
                Here, we review the special challenges associated with an energy system that does not add any CO
                2
                to the atmosphere (a net-zero emissions energy system). We discuss prominent technological opportunities and barriers for eliminating and/or managing emissions related to the difficult-to-decarbonize services; pitfalls in which near-term actions may make it more difficult or costly to achieve the net-zero emissions goal; and critical areas for research, development, demonstration, and deployment. It may take decades to research, develop, and deploy these new technologies.
              
            
            
              ADVANCES
              A successful transition to a future net-zero emissions energy system is likely to depend on vast amounts of inexpensive, emissions-free electricity; mechanisms to quickly and cheaply balance large and uncertain time-varying differences between demand and electricity generation; electrified substitutes for most fuel-using devices; alternative materials and manufacturing processes for structural materials; and carbon-neutral fuels for the parts of the economy that are not easily electrified. Recycling and removal of carbon from the atmosphere (carbon management) is also likely to be an important activity of any net-zero emissions energy system. The specific technologies that will be favored in future marketplaces are largely uncertain, but only a finite number of technology choices exist today for each functional role. To take appropriate actions in the near term, it is imperative to clearly identify desired end points. To achieve a robust, reliable, and affordable net-zero emissions energy system later this century, efforts to research, develop, demonstrate, and deploy those candidate technologies must start now.
            
            
              OUTLOOK
              Combinations of known technologies could eliminate emissions related to all essential energy services and processes, but substantial increases in costs are an immediate barrier to avoiding emissions in each category. In some cases, innovation and deployment can be expected to reduce costs and create new options. More rapid changes may depend on coordinating operations across energy and industry sectors, which could help boost utilization rates of capital-intensive assets, but this will require overcoming institutional and organizational challenges in order to create new markets and ensure cooperation among regulators and disparate, risk-averse businesses. Two parallel and broad streams of research and development could prove useful: research in technologies and approaches that can decarbonize provision of the most difficult-to-decarbonize energy services, and research in systems integration that would allow reliable and cost-effective provision of these services.
              
                
                  A shower of molten metal in a steel foundry.
                  
                    Industrial processes such as steelmaking will be particularly challenging to decarbonize. Meeting future demand for such difficult-to-decarbonize energy services and industrial products without adding CO
                    2
                    to the atmosphere may depend on technological cost reductions via research and innovation, as well as coordinated deployment and integration of operations across currently discrete energy industries.
                  
                
                
              
            
          , 
            
              Some energy services and industrial processes—such as long-distance freight transport, air travel, highly reliable electricity, and steel and cement manufacturing—are particularly difficult to provide without adding carbon dioxide (CO
              2
              ) to the atmosphere. Rapidly growing demand for these services, combined with long lead times for technology development and long lifetimes of energy infrastructure, make decarbonization of these services both essential and urgent. We examine barriers and opportunities associated with these difficult-to-decarbonize services and processes, including possible technological solutions and research and development priorities. A range of existing technologies could meet future demands for these services and processes without net addition of CO
              2
              to the atmosphere, but their use may depend on a combination of cost reductions via research and innovation, as well as coordinated deployment and integration of operations across currently discrete energy industries.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6396},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Davis, Steven J. and Lewis, Nathan S. and Shaner, Matthew and Aggarwal, Sonia and Arent, Doug and Azevedo, Inês L. and Benson, Sally M. and Bradley, Thomas and Brouwer, Jack and Chiang, Yet-Ming and Clack, Christopher T. M. and Cohen, Armond and Doig, Stephen and Edmonds, Jae and Fennell, Paul and Field, Christopher B. and Hannegan, Bryan and Hodge, Bri-Mathias and Hoffert, Martin I. and Ingersoll, Eric and Jaramillo, Paulina and Lackner, Klaus S. and Mach, Katharine J. and Mastrandrea, Michael and Ogden, Joan and Peterson, Per F. and Sanchez, Daniel L. and Sperling, Daniel and Stagner, Joseph and Trancik, Jessika E. and Yang, Chi-Jen and Caldeira, Ken},
	month = jun,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {eaas9793},
	file = {Davis et al. - 2018 - Net-zero emissions energy systems.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\UAD6WAZP\\Davis et al. - 2018 - Net-zero emissions energy systems.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{giampietro_multiple-scale_2000,
	title = {Multiple-{Scale} {Integrated} {Assessments} of {Societal} {Metabolism}: {Integrating} {Biophysical} and {Economic} {Representations} across {Scales}},
	volume = {22},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/27503740},
	language = {en},
	number = {2,},
	journal = {Population and Environment},
	author = {Giampietro, Mario and Mayumi, Kozo},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {155--210},
	file = {Giampietro et Mayumi - 2000 - Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessments of Societal .pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\7NZ24SCX\\Giampietro et Mayumi - 2000 - Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessments of Societal .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{lo_piano_unpacking_2023,
	title = {Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making},
	issn = {0272-4332, 1539-6924},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/risa.14248},
	doi = {10.1111/risa.14248},
	abstract = {This article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem with the case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modeling in the 1980s. We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help mitigate this issue, which include Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing (SAUD). We illustrate the potential of these reﬂexive modeling practices in energy policy-making with three additional cases: (i) the case of the energy system modeling environment (ESME) for the creation of UK energy policy; (ii) the negative emission technologies (NETs) uptake in integrated assessment models (IAMs); and (iii) the ecological footprint indicator. We encourage modelers to adopt these approaches to achieve more robust, defensible, and inclusive modeling activities in the ﬁeld of energy research.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Risk Analysis},
	author = {Lo Piano, Samuele and Lőrincz, Máté János and Puy, Arnald and Pye, Steve and Saltelli, Andrea and Smith, Stefán Thor and Van Der Sluijs, Jeroen},
	month = nov,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {risa.14248},
	file = {Lo Piano et al. - 2023 - Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy m.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\KM7ZE2FC\\Lo Piano et al. - 2023 - Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy m.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{chateau_24_1990,
	title = {2.4. {Accounting} and end-use models},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {03605442},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/036054429090088J},
	doi = {10.1016/0360-5442(90)90088-J},
	abstract = {Accounting and end-use models were developed in industrialized countries in the early seventies. Since then they have become rather popular and are now widely used all over the world. These models are directly derived from the so-called technico-economic analysis of energy demand.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	journal = {Energy},
	author = {Chateau, Bertrand and Lapillonne, Bruno},
	month = mar,
	year = {1990},
	pages = {261--278},
	file = {Chateau et Lapillonne - 1990 - 2.4. Accounting and end-use models.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\W6SJYFKS\\Chateau et Lapillonne - 1990 - 2.4. Accounting and end-use models.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{chateau_long-term_1978,
	title = {Long-term energy demand forecasting {A} new approach},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {03014215},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0301421578900356},
	doi = {10.1016/0301-4215(78)90035-6},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Energy Policy},
	author = {Chateau, B and Lapillonne, B},
	month = jun,
	year = {1978},
	pages = {140--157},
	file = {Chateau et Lapillonne - 1978 - Long-term energy demand forecasting A new approach.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\HFFIQ2BA\\Chateau et Lapillonne - 1978 - Long-term energy demand forecasting A new approach.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{li_integrated_2023,
	title = {Integrated assessment modelling of degrowth scenarios for {Australia}},
	issn = {0953-5314, 1469-5758},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09535314.2023.2245544},
	doi = {10.1080/09535314.2023.2245544},
	abstract = {Empirical evidence increasingly indicates that to achieve sufficiently rapid decarbonisation, high-income economies may need to adopt degrowth policies, scaling down less-necessary forms of production and demand, in addition to rapid deployment of renewables. Calls have been made for degrowth climate mitigation scenarios. However, so far these have not been modelled within the established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for future scenario analysis of the energy-economy-emission nexus, partly because the architecture of these IAMs has growth ‘baked in’. In this work, we modify one of the common IAMs – MESSAGEix – to make it compatible with degrowth scenarios. We simulate scenarios featuring low and negative growth in a high-income economy (Australia). We achieve this by detaching MESSAGEix from its monotonically growing utility function, and by formulating an alternative utility function based on non-monotonic preferences. The outcomes from such modified scenarios reflect some characteristics of degrowth futures, including reduced aggregate production and declining energy and emissions. However, further work is needed to explore other key degrowth features such as sectoral differentiation, redistribution, and provisioning system transformation.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Economic Systems Research},
	author = {Li, Mengyu and Keyßer, Lorenz and Kikstra, Jarmo S. and Hickel, Jason and Brockway, Paul E. and Dai, Nicolas and Malik, Arunima and Lenzen, Manfred},
	month = aug,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {1--31},
	file = {Li et al. - 2023 - Integrated assessment modelling of degrowth scenar.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\BNQIF5IQ\\Li et al. - 2023 - Integrated assessment modelling of degrowth scenar.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{millward-hopkins_providing_2020,
	title = {Providing decent living with minimum energy: {A} global scenario},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {09593780},
	shorttitle = {Providing decent living with minimum energy},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378020307512},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102168},
	abstract = {It is increasingly clear that averting ecological breakdown will require drastic changes to contemporary human society and the global economy embedded within it. On the other hand, the basic material needs of billions of people across the planet remain unmet. Here, we develop a simple, bottom-up model to estimate a practical minimal threshold for the final energy consumption required to provide decent material livings to the entire global population. We find that global final energy consumption in 2050 could be reduced to the levels of the 1960s, despite a population three times larger. However, such a world requires a massive rollout of advanced technologies across all sectors, as well as radical demand-side changes to reduce consumption – regardless of income – to levels of sufficiency. Sufficiency is, however, far more materially generous in our model than what those opposed to strong reductions in consumption often assume.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Millward-Hopkins, Joel and Steinberger, Julia K. and Rao, Narasimha D. and Oswald, Yannick},
	month = nov,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {102168},
	file = {Millward-Hopkins et al. - 2020 - Providing decent living with minimum energy A glo.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\9PBB7DLA\\Millward-Hopkins et al. - 2020 - Providing decent living with minimum energy A glo.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{swan_modeling_2009,
	title = {Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: {A} review of modeling techniques},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {13640321},
	shorttitle = {Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032108001949},
	doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2008.09.033},
	abstract = {There is a growing interest in reducing energy consumption and the associated greenhouse gas emissions in every sector of the economy. The residential sector is a substantial consumer of energy in every country, and therefore a focus for energy consumption efforts. Since the energy consumption characteristics of the residential sector are complex and inter-related, comprehensive models are needed to assess the technoeconomic impacts of adopting energy efﬁciency and renewable energy technologies suitable for residential applications.},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
	author = {Swan, Lukas G. and Ugursal, V. Ismet},
	month = oct,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {1819--1835},
	file = {Swan et Ugursal - 2009 - Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the resi.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\URP9R45W\\Swan et Ugursal - 2009 - Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the resi.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{b_muller_stock_2006,
	title = {Stock dynamics for forecasting material flows—{Case} study for housing in {The} {Netherlands}},
	volume = {59},
	issn = {09218009},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S092180090500460X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.09.025},
	abstract = {This article discusses the role of lifestyle in physical material accounting and introduces a new method for simultaneously determining national or regional resource demand and waste generation through estimations of the population and its lifestyle, which is manifested in the stocks of service providing goods, their composition and lifetimes. Improving our comprehension of the stocks in use is essential for environmental policy making because (1) they are becoming the most important resource providers, (2) they are important drivers for resource and energy consumption as well as waste and emission generation, and (3) their magnitudes and dynamics are the parts of the material cycles that is usually least understood.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Ecological Economics},
	author = {B. Müller, Daniel},
	month = aug,
	year = {2006},
	pages = {142--156},
	file = {B. Müller - 2006 - Stock dynamics for forecasting material flows—Case.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\9CBG7S8B\\B. Müller - 2006 - Stock dynamics for forecasting material flows—Case.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{milford_roles_2013,
	title = {The {Roles} of {Energy} and {Material} {Efficiency} in {Meeting} {Steel} {Industry} {CO} $_{\textrm{2}}$ {Targets}},
	volume = {47},
	issn = {0013-936X, 1520-5851},
	url = {https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/es3031424},
	doi = {10.1021/es3031424},
	abstract = {Identifying strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from steel production requires a comprehensive model of the sector but previous work has either failed to consider the whole supply chain or considered only a subset of possible abatement options. In this work, a global mass ﬂow analysis is combined with process emissions intensities to allow forecasts of future steel sector emissions under all abatement options. Scenario analysis shows that global capacity for primary steel production is already near to a peak and that if sectoral emissions are to be reduced by 50\% by 2050, the last required blast furnace will be built by 2020. Emissions reduction targets cannot be met by energy and emissions eﬃciency alone, but deploying material eﬃciency provides suﬃcient extra abatement potential.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology},
	author = {Milford, Rachel L. and Pauliuk, Stefan and Allwood, Julian M. and Müller, Daniel B.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {3455--3462},
	file = {Milford et al. - 2013 - The Roles of Energy and Material Efficiency in Mee.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\ABUB9E9G\\Milford et al. - 2013 - The Roles of Energy and Material Efficiency in Mee.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{haberl_material_2017,
	title = {The {Material} {Stock}–{Flow}–{Service} {Nexus}: {A} {New} {Approach} for {Tackling} the {Decoupling} {Conundrum}},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {2071-1050},
	shorttitle = {The {Material} {Stock}–{Flow}–{Service} {Nexus}},
	url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/7/1049},
	doi = {10.3390/su9071049},
	abstract = {Fundamental changes in the societal use of biophysical resources are required for a sustainability transformation. Current socioeconomic metabolism research traces ﬂows of energy, materials or substances to capture resource use: input of raw materials or energy, their fate in production and consumption, and the discharge of wastes and emissions. This approach has yielded important insights into eco-efﬁciency and long-term drivers of resource use. But socio-metabolic research has not yet fully incorporated material stocks or their services, hence not completely exploiting the analytic power of the metabolism concept. This commentary argues for a material stock–ﬂow–service nexus approach focused on the analysis of interrelations between material and energy ﬂows, socioeconomic material stocks (“in-use stocks of materials”) and the services provided by speciﬁc stock/ﬂow combinations. Analyzing the interrelations between stocks, ﬂows and services will allow researchers to develop highly innovative indicators of eco-efﬁciency and open new research directions that will help to better understand biophysical foundations of transformations towards sustainability.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7},
	journal = {Sustainability},
	author = {Haberl, Helmut and Wiedenhofer, Dominik and Erb, Karl-Heinz and Görg, Christoph and Krausmann, Fridolin},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {1049},
	file = {Haberl et al. - 2017 - The Material Stock–Flow–Service Nexus A New Appro.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\49SAZIZF\\Haberl et al. - 2017 - The Material Stock–Flow–Service Nexus A New Appro.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{matter_rapid_2016,
	title = {Rapid carbon mineralization for permanent disposal of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions},
	volume = {352},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aad8132},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aad8132},
	abstract = {Inject, baby, inject!
            
              Atmospheric CO
              2
              can be sequestered by injecting it into basaltic rocks, providing a potentially valuable way to undo some of the damage done by fossil fuel burning. Matter
              et al.
              injected CO
              2
              into wells in Iceland that pass through basaltic lavas and hyaloclastites at depths between 400 and 800 m. Most of the injected CO
              2
              was mineralized in less than 2 years. Carbonate minerals are stable, so this approach should avoid the risk of carbon leakage.
            
            
              Science
              , this issue p.
              1312
            
          , 
            Basaltic rocks may be effective sinks for storing carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere.
          , 
            
              Carbon capture and storage (CCS) provides a solution toward decarbonization of the global economy. The success of this solution depends on the ability to safely and permanently store CO
              2
              . This study demonstrates for the first time the permanent disposal of CO
              2
              as environmentally benign carbonate minerals in basaltic rocks. We find that over 95\% of the CO
              2
              injected into the CarbFix site in Iceland was mineralized to carbonate minerals in less than 2 years. This result contrasts with the common view that the immobilization of CO
              2
              as carbonate minerals within geologic reservoirs takes several hundreds to thousands of years. Our results, therefore, demonstrate that the safe long-term storage of anthropogenic CO
              2
              emissions through mineralization can be far faster than previously postulated.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6291},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Matter, Juerg M. and Stute, Martin and Snæbjörnsdottir, Sandra Ó. and Oelkers, Eric H. and Gislason, Sigurdur R. and Aradottir, Edda S. and Sigfusson, Bergur and Gunnarsson, Ingvi and Sigurdardottir, Holmfridur and Gunnlaugsson, Einar and Axelsson, Gudni and Alfredsson, Helgi A. and Wolff-Boenisch, Domenik and Mesfin, Kiflom and Taya, Diana Fernandez De La Reguera and Hall, Jennifer and Dideriksen, Knud and Broecker, Wallace S.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {1312--1314},
	file = {Matter et al. - 2016 - Rapid carbon mineralization for permanent disposal.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\K77997X9\\Matter et al. - 2016 - Rapid carbon mineralization for permanent disposal.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{mastrucci_global_2021,
	title = {Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and {CO2} emissions},
	volume = {168},
	issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03229-3},
	doi = {10.1007/s10584-021-03229-3},
	abstract = {Buildings account for 36\% of global final energy demand and are key to mitigating climate change. Assessing the evolution of the global building stock and its energy demand is critical to support mitigation strategies. However, most global studies lack granularity and overlook heterogeneity in the building sector, limiting the evaluation of demand transformation scenarios. We develop global residential building scenarios along the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 1–3 and assess the evolution of building stock, energy demand, and ­CO2 emissions for space heating and cooling with MESSAGEix-Buildings, a modelling framework soft-linked to an integrated assessment framework. MESSAGEix-Buildings combines bottom-up modelling of energy demand, stock turnover, and discrete choice modelling for energy efficiency decisions, and accounts for heterogeneity in geographical contexts, socio-economics, and buildings characteristics.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3-4},
	journal = {Climatic Change},
	author = {Mastrucci, Alessio and Van Ruijven, Bas and Byers, Edward and Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel and Pachauri, Shonali},
	month = oct,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {14},
	file = {Mastrucci et al. - 2021 - Global scenarios of residential heating and coolin.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\MF57VK2A\\Mastrucci et al. - 2021 - Global scenarios of residential heating and coolin.pdf:application/pdf},
}


@article{watari_feasible_2023,
	title = {Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {2041-1723},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43684-3},
	doi = {10.1038/s41467-023-43684-3},
	abstract = {Abstract
            
              The current decarbonization strategy for the steel and cement industries is inherently dependent on the build-out of infrastructure, including for CO
              2
              transport and storage, renewable electricity, and green hydrogen. However, the deployment of this infrastructure entails considerable uncertainty. Here we explore the global feasible supply of steel and cement within Paris-compliant carbon budgets, explicitly considering uncertainties in the deployment of infrastructure. Our scenario analysis reveals that despite substantial growth in recycling- and hydrogen-based production, the feasible steel supply will only meet 58–65\% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. Cement supply is even more uncertain due to limited mitigation options, meeting only 22–56\% (interquartile range) of the expected baseline demand in 2050. These findings pose a two-fold challenge for decarbonizing the steel and cement industries: on the one hand, governments need to expand essential infrastructure rapidly; on the other hand, industries need to prepare for the risk of deployment failures, rather than solely waiting for large-scale infrastructure to emerge. Our feasible supply scenarios provide compelling evidence of the urgency of demand-side actions and establish benchmarks for the required level of resource efficiency.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Nature Communications},
	author = {Watari, Takuma and Cabrera Serrenho, André and Gast, Lukas and Cullen, Jonathan and Allwood, Julian},
	month = nov,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {7895},
	file = {Watari et al. - 2023 - Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbo.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\B3QCK2PL\\Watari et al. - 2023 - Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbo.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{semieniuk_plausible_2021,
	title = {Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing global economy with climate policy},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1758-678X, 1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00975-7},
	doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00975-7},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Semieniuk, Gregor and Taylor, Lance and Rezai, Armon and Foley, Duncan K.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {313--318},
	file = {Semieniuk et al. - 2021 - Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing glob.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\KG89SXKA\\Semieniuk et al. - 2021 - Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing glob.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{aramendia_global_2023,
	title = {Global energy consumption of the mineral mining industry: {Exploring} the historical perspective and future pathways to 2060},
	volume = {83},
	issn = {09593780},
	shorttitle = {Global energy consumption of the mineral mining industry},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378023001115},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102745},
	abstract = {The mining industry globally is responsible for significant energy consumption, and is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. Considering that future mineral demand is likely to increase and that the final energy consumption per unit mass of mineral extracted (energy intensities of mining) is also forecast to increase as a result of a decrease in mineral resource deposit qualities, the mining industry’s final energy consumption will increase in the future. But the scale of that future increase remains unexplored. In this study, we (i) provide the first bottom-up assessment of the mining industry’s final energy consumption globally (1971–2015), (ii) use 1.5◦C consistent socio-economic scenarios to conduct an exploratory study of future possible pathways for the mining industry’s final energy consumption, and (iii) review the extent to which such energy consumption is considered in energy-economy models.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Aramendia, Emmanuel and Brockway, Paul E. and Taylor, Peter G. and Norman, Jonathan},
	month = dec,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {102745},
	file = {1-s2.0-S0959378023001115-mmc1.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\6CMJYL5U\\1-s2.0-S0959378023001115-mmc1.pdf:application/pdf;1-s2.0-S0959378023001115-mmc2.xlsx:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\I8RPSSZR\\1-s2.0-S0959378023001115-mmc2.xlsx:application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet;main.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\UPX23FRL\\main.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{northey_primary_2023,
	title = {Primary {Exploration}, {Mining} and {Metal} {Supply} {Scenario} ({PEMMSS}) model: {Towards} a stochastic understanding of the mineral discovery, mine development and co-product recovery requirements to meet demand in a low-carbon future},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {26673789},
	shorttitle = {Primary {Exploration}, {Mining} and {Metal} {Supply} {Scenario} ({PEMMSS}) model},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2667378923000093},
	doi = {10.1016/j.rcradv.2023.200137},
	abstract = {Existing scenario models of future material flows often exclude or place a ‘black-box’ around the mining industry and disregard important industry dynamics such as mineral exploration. This lack of sophistication prevents formation of knowledge required to answer key questions pertaining to future mining output, the amount of companion metals that can be supplied and the investments and lead times needed to fulfil future metal demand. To address this, we introduce the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model, which allows for mine-by-mine modelling with full regionalisation and linkages to geological deposit types. PEMMSS allows for the assessment of required rates of mineral deposit discovery, mine development and coproduct recovery overtime for a range of socio-economic and sustainable development linked primary mate­ rial demand scenarios. The model can be calibrated using mineral resource grade, tonnage and density proba­ bility distribution functions for regions and deposit types to stochastically model scenarios for future greenfield discoveries and understand uncertainities. Applying PEMMSS will facilitate improved understanding of how future urbanisation across the globe and low-carbon transitions will translate into altered requirements for the exploration and primary mineral and metal supply sectors and their associated environmental impacts. A hy­ pothetical case study is presented for a four co-product commodity system to highlight potential model be­ haviours and key drivers of model sensitivity.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Resources, Conservation \& Recycling Advances},
	author = {Northey, S.A. and Klose, S. and Pauliuk, S. and Yellishetty, M. and Giurco, D.},
	month = may,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {200137},
	file = {Northey et al. - 2023 - Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scena.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\REF9LSVH\\Northey et al. - 2023 - Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scena.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@incollection{vidal_modeling_2021,
	edition = {Fizaine, F.; Galiègue, X.},
	title = {Modeling the {Long}-{Term} {Evolution} of {Primary} {Production} {Energy} and {Metal} {Prices}},
	isbn = {978-1-78945-024-8 978-1-119-85086-1},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1002/9781119850861},
	language = {en},
	booktitle = {Mineral {Resources} {Economics} 1: {Context} and {Issues}},
	publisher = {Wiley},
	author = {Vidal, Olivier},
	month = aug,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.1002/9781119850861},
	file = {[] Florian Fizaine - Mineral Resource Economics 1_ Context and Issues (2021, Wiley-ISTE).pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\LFCLINGP\\[] Florian Fizaine - Mineral Resource Economics 1_ Context and Issues (2021, Wiley-ISTE).pdf:application/pdf;2021 - Mineral Resources Economics 1 Context and Issues.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\TDA3GURZ\\2021 - Mineral Resources Economics 1 Context and Issues.pdf:application/pdf},
}


@article{fisher-vanden_evolution_2020,
	title = {The {Evolution} of {Integrated} {Assessment}: {Developing} the {Next} {Generation} of {Use}-{Inspired} {Integrated} {Assessment} {Tools}},
	volume = {12},
	issn = {1941-1340, 1941-1359},
	shorttitle = {The {Evolution} of {Integrated} {Assessment}},
	url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-resource-110119-030314},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-resource-110119-030314},
	abstract = {In this review, we attempt to describe the evolution of integrated assessment modeling research since the pioneering work of William Nordhaus in 1994, highlighting a number of challenges and suggestions for moving the field forward. The field has evolved from global aggregate models focused on cost-benefit analysis to detailed process models used to generate emissions scenarios and to coupled model frameworks for impact analyses. The increased demand for higher sectoral, temporal, and spatial resolution to conduct impact analyses has led to a number of challenges both computationally and conceptually. Overcoming these challenges and moving the field forward will require not only greater efforts in model coupling software and translational tools, the incorporation of empirical findings into integrated assessment models, and intermethod comparisons but also the expansion and better coordination of multidisciplinary researchers in this field through better training of the next generation of integrated assessment scholars and expanding the community of practice.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Annual Review of Resource Economics},
	author = {Fisher-Vanden, Karen and Weyant, John},
	month = oct,
	year = {2020},
	pages = {471--487},
	file = {Fisher-Vanden et Weyant - 2020 - The Evolution of Integrated Assessment Developing.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\WBNNBKPD\\Fisher-Vanden et Weyant - 2020 - The Evolution of Integrated Assessment Developing.pdf:application/pdf},
}


@article{le_boulzec_dynamic_2022,
	title = {Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs: {Overcoming} a lack of available data},
	volume = {326},
	issn = {03062619},
	shorttitle = {Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastructure and materials needs},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306261922011369},
	doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119871},
	abstract = {The low-carbon energy transition requires a widespread change in global energy infrastructures which in turn calls for important inputs of energy and materials. While the transport and electricity sectors have been thoroughly analyzed in this regard, that of the hydrocarbon industry has not received the same attention, maybe in part due to the difficulty of access to the necessary data. To fill this gap, we assemble public-domain data from a wide variety of sources to present a stock-flow dynamic model of the fossil fuels supply chain. It is conducted from 1950 to 2050 and along scenarios from the International Energy Agency. We estimate the concrete, steel, aluminum and copper requirements for each segment, as well as the embedded energy and CO2 emissions through a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model. We find that (i) the material intensities of oil, gas and coal supply chains have stagnated for more than 30 years; (ii) gas is the main driver of current and future material consumption; and (iii) recycled steel from decommissioned fossil fuels infrastructures could meet the cumulative need of future low-carbon technologies and reduce its energy and environmental toll. Furthermore, we highlight that regional decommissioning strategies significantly affect the potential of material recycling and reuse. In this context, ambitious decommissioning strategies could drive a symbolic move to build future renewable technologies from past fossil fuel structures.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Applied Energy},
	author = {Le Boulzec, Hugo and Delannoy, Louis and Andrieu, Baptiste and Verzier, François and Vidal, Olivier and Mathy, Sandrine},
	month = nov,
	year = {2022},
	pages = {119871},
	file = {Le Boulzec et al. - 2022 - Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastruct.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\DY3E88MW\\Le Boulzec et al. - 2022 - Dynamic modeling of global fossil fuel infrastruct.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{vidal_modelling_2021,
	title = {Modelling the {Demand} and {Access} of {Mineral} {Resources} in a {Changing} {World}},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {2071-1050},
	url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/1/11},
	doi = {10.3390/su14010011},
	abstract = {Humanity is using mineral resources at an unprecedented level and demand will continue to grow over the next few decades before stabilizing by the end of the century, due to the economic development of populated countries and the energy and digital transitions. The demand for raw materials must be estimated with a bottom-up and regionalised approach and the supply capacity with approaches coupling long-term prices with energy and production costs controlled by the quality of the resource and the rate of technological improvement that depends on thermodynamic limits. Such modelling provides arguments in favour of two classically opposed visions of the future of mineral resources: an unaffordable increase in costs and prices following the depletion of high quality deposits or, on the contrary, a favourable compensation by technological improvements. Both views are true, but not at the same time. After a period of energy and production cost gains, we now appear to be entering a pivotal period of long-term production cost increases as we approach the minimum practical energy and thermodynamic limits for many metals.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Sustainability},
	author = {Vidal, Olivier and Le Boulzec, Hugo and Andrieu, Baptiste and Verzier, François},
	month = dec,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {11},
	file = {Vidal et al. - 2021 - Modelling the Demand and Access of Mineral Resourc.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\F6JZJ63A\\Vidal et al. - 2021 - Modelling the Demand and Access of Mineral Resourc.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@phdthesis{andrieu_modelling_2024,
	title = {Modelling energy dependencies: from raw materials to global health},
	url = {https://theses.hal.science/tel-04416040},
	language = {en},
	school = {Grenoble Alpes University},
	author = {Andrieu, Baptiste},
	year = {2024},
	file = {Andrieu - Modelling energy dependencies from raw materials .pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\ZZ9B5NEH\\Andrieu - Modelling energy dependencies from raw materials .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{vidal_modelling_2018,
	title = {Modelling the material and energy costs of the transition to low-carbon energy},
	volume = {189},
	doi = {10.1051/epjconf/201818900018},
	journal = {EPJ Web of Conferences},
	author = {Vidal, Olivier and Boulzec, Hugo Le and François, Cyril},
	editor = {Cifarelli, L. and Wagner, F.},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {00018},
}

@article{vidal_metals_2013,
	title = {Metals for a low-carbon society},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1752-0894, 1752-0908},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ngeo1993},
	doi = {10.1038/ngeo1993},
	number = {11},
	journal = {Nature Geoscience},
	author = {Vidal, Olivier and Goffé, Bruno and Arndt, Nicholas},
	month = oct,
	year = {2013},
	pages = {894--896},
}

@article{vidal_preypredator_2019,
	title = {Prey–{Predator} {Long}-{Term} {Modeling} of {Copper} {Reserves}, {Production}, {Recycling}, {Price}, and {Cost} of {Production}},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {0013-936X, 1520-5851},
	url = {https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.9b03883},
	doi = {10.1021/acs.est.9b03883},
	language = {en},
	number = {19},
	journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology},
	author = {Vidal, Olivier and Rostom, Fatma Zahra and François, Cyril and Giraud, Gaël},
	month = oct,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {11323--11336},
}

@techreport{monfort-climent_inventaires_2019,
	title = {Inventaires des besoins en matières, énergie, eau et sols des technologies de la transition énergétique, {Projet} {SURFER}},
	language = {fr},
	institution = {ADEME, ISTerre, BRGM},
	author = {Monfort-Climent, D and Laurent, Faustine and Le Boulzec, Hugo and Lefevbre, Gaetan and Rodriguez, B and Muller, S and François, Cyril and Andrieu, Baptiste and Vidal, Olivier and Villeneuve, Jacques},
	year = {2019},
	pages = {231},
}

@article{le_boulzec_material_2023,
	title = {Material requirements and impacts of the building sector in the {Shared} {Socioeconomic} {Pathways}},
	volume = {428},
	issn = {09596526},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959652623032754},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139117},
	abstract = {The significant weight of the building sector in global material demand has been addressed in several publications, but a lack of consideration of the energy-materials nexus was identified. To fill this gap, we developed a stock-flow dynamic model from 1950 to 2100, using scenarios of the International Energy Agency and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of the academic literature. We find that (i) the increasing stocks in the less developed countries results in a rise of the inflows; (ii) strong inequalities are observed in the in-use stocks per capita of materials in the SSPs, despite optimistic material intensities projection, (iii) a growing materials demand translates into larger final energy demand of material production, which could question the feasibility of some low-energy demand scenarios, and that (iv) the recycled concrete aggregated display a significant potential to enhance the reduction of accumulated concrete stocks in landfills and green concrete could decrease the energy demand of concrete production. We furthermore highlight the crucial temporal aspect of policies to successfully implement these solutions, as long lifetimes are observed in the building sector.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},
	author = {Le Boulzec, Hugo and Mathy, Sandrine and Verzier, François and Andrieu, Baptiste and Monfort-Climent, Daniel and Vidal, Olivier},
	month = nov,
	year = {2023},
	pages = {139117},
	file = {Le Boulzec et al. - 2023 - Material requirements and impacts of the building .pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\G6G68DHD\\Le Boulzec et al. - 2023 - Material requirements and impacts of the building .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@phdthesis{francois_regionalisation_2017,
	type = {{PhD} {Thesis}},
	title = {La régionalisation des inventaires de cycle de vie pour évaluer les technologies, les flux matériaux et les impacts dans la chaine d'approvisionnement des énergies renouvelables},
	url = {https://theses.hal.science/tel-01792053v1/document},
	language = {fr},
	school = {Université Grenoble Alpes},
	author = {François, Cyril},
	year = {2017},
}


@article{lawrence_polycrisis_2024,
	title = {Polycrisis in the {Anthropocene}: an invitation to contributions and debates},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2059-4798},
	shorttitle = {Polycrisis in the {Anthropocene}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2059479824000024/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/sus.2024.2},
	abstract = {The popularity of the term polycrisis suggests a growing demand for new thinking about the world’s intersecting crises, but loose and haphazard uses of the concept impede knowledge generation. The special issue, ‘Polycrisis in the Anthropocene’, aims to close the gap. This introductory comment first elaborates upon three key contributions of the lead article ‘Global Polycrisis: The Causal mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement’: a conceptualization of crisis as systemic disequilibrium; the distinction between the slow-moving stresses and the fastmoving trigger events that interact to generate a crisis; and a grammar with which to map the causality of crisis interactions. The commentary then explores three key debates around the polycrisis concept: Are we in a polycrisis, at risk of a polycrisis, or neither? Is the present polycrisis truly unique and unprecedented? And where are power and agency in a systemic approach to polycrisis? These ongoing debates suggest promising directions for polycrisis research that could feature in this special issue and advance the field of polycrisis analysis.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Global Sustainability},
	author = {Lawrence, Michael},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {e5},
	file = {Lawrence - 2024 - Polycrisis in the Anthropocene an invitation to c.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\5KE3ZIVW\\Lawrence - 2024 - Polycrisis in the Anthropocene an invitation to c.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{lawrence_global_2024,
	title = {Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2059-4798},
	shorttitle = {Global polycrisis},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2059479824000012/type/journal_article},
	doi = {10.1017/sus.2024.1},
	abstract = {Multiple global crises – including the pandemic, climate change, and Russia’s war on Ukraine – have recently linked together in ways that are significant in scope, devastating in effect, but poorly understood. A growing number of scholars and policymakers characterize the situation as a ‘polycrisis’. Yet this neologism remains poorly defined. We provide the concept with a substantive definition, highlight its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and develop a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world’s crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or more fastmoving trigger events combine with slow-moving stresses to push a global system out of its established equilibrium and into a volatile and harmful state of disequilibrium. We then identify three causal pathways – common stresses, domino effects, and inter-systemic feedbacks –that can connect multiple global systems to produce synchronized crises. Drawing on current examples, we show that the polycrisis concept is a valuable tool for understanding ongoing crises, generating actionable insights, and opening avenues for future research.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Global Sustainability},
	author = {Lawrence, Michael and Homer-Dixon, Thomas and Janzwood, Scott and Rockstöm, Johan and Renn, Ortwin and Donges, Jonathan F.},
	year = {2024},
	pages = {e6},
	file = {Lawrence et al. - 2024 - Global polycrisis the causal mechanisms of crisis.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\9GL98YDF\\Lawrence et al. - 2024 - Global polycrisis the causal mechanisms of crisis.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@techreport{world_economic_forum_wef_global_2023,
	type = {Insight {Report}},
	title = {The {Global} {Risks} {Report} 2023},
	url = {https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf},
	language = {En},
	number = {18th Edition},
	author = {{World Economic Forum}},
	year = {2023},
	pages = {98},
	file = {WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\WDJRPNVH\\WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{swilling_age_2020,
	address = {London},
	edition = {1},
	title = {The {Age} of {Sustainability}: {Just} {Transitions} in a {Complex} {World}},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0},
	isbn = {978-0-429-05782-3},
	shorttitle = {The {Age} of {Sustainability}},
	url = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9780429057823},
	language = {en},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Swilling, Mark},
	month = nov,
	year = {2020},
	doi = {10.4324/9780429057823},
	file = {9780429609244.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\7DTKCZZJ\\9780429609244.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{isbell_linking_2017,
	title = {Linking the influence and dependence of people on biodiversity across scales},
	volume = {546},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nature22899},
	doi = {10.1038/nature22899},
	language = {en},
	number = {7656},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Isbell, Forest and Gonzalez, Andrew and Loreau, Michel and Cowles, Jane and Díaz, Sandra and Hector, Andy and Mace, Georgina M. and Wardle, David A. and O'Connor, Mary I. and Duffy, J. Emmett and Turnbull, Lindsay A. and Thompson, Patrick L. and Larigauderie, Anne},
	month = jun,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {65--72},
	file = {Isbell et al. - 2017 - Linking the influence and dependence of people on .pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\379936YV\\Isbell et al. - 2017 - Linking the influence and dependence of people on .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{soranno_crossscale_2014,
	title = {Cross‐scale interactions: quantifying multi‐scaled cause–effect relationships in macrosystems},
	volume = {12},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {1540-9295, 1540-9309},
	shorttitle = {Cross‐scale interactions},
	url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/120366},
	doi = {10.1890/120366},
	abstract = {Ecologists are increasingly discovering that ecological processes are made up of components that are multi‐scaled in space and time. Some of the most complex of these processes are cross‐scale interactions (CSIs), which occur when components interact across scales. When undetected, such interactions may cause errors in extrapolation from one region to another. CSIs, particularly those that include a regional scaled component, have not been systematically investigated or even reported because of the challenges of acquiring data at sufficiently broad spatial extents. We present an approach for quantifying CSIs and apply it to a case study investigating one such interaction, between local and regional scaled land‐use drivers of lake phosphorus. Ultimately, our approach for investigating CSIs can serve as a basis for efforts to understand a wide variety of multi‐scaled problems such as climate change, land‐use/land‐cover change, and invasive species.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
	author = {Soranno, Patricia A and Cheruvelil, Kendra S and Bissell, Edward G and Bremigan, Mary T and Downing, John A and Fergus, Carol E and Filstrup, Christopher T and Henry, Emily N and Lottig, Noah R and Stanley, Emily H and Stow, Craig A and Tan, Pang-Ning and Wagner, Tyler and Webster, Katherine E},
	month = feb,
	year = {2014},
	pages = {65--73},
	file = {Frontiers in Ecol   Environ - 2014 - Soranno - Cross‐scale interactions  quantifying multi‐scaled cause effect.pdf:C\:\\Users\\Le Boulzec\\Zotero\\storage\\FNZPZP5K\\Frontiers in Ecol   Environ - 2014 - Soranno - Cross‐scale interactions  quantifying multi‐scaled cause effect.pdf:application/pdf},
}


@article{pauliuk_toward_2016,
	title = {Toward a {Practical} {Ontology} for {Socioeconomic} {Metabolism}},
	volume = {20},
	copyright = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions\#vor},
	issn = {1088-1980, 1530-9290},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12386},
	doi = {10.1111/jiec.12386},
	abstract = {The complexity of data and methods in industrial ecology (IE) keeps growing, and the demand for comprehensive and interdisciplinary assessments increases. To keep up with this development, the ﬁeld needs a data infrastructure that allows researchers to annotate, store, retrieve, combine, and exchange data at low cost, without loss of information, and across disciplines and model frameworks. A consensus-building debate about how to describe the common object of study, socioeconomic metabolism (SEM), is necessary for the development of practical data structures and databases. We review the deﬁnitions of basic concepts to describe SEM in IE and related ﬁelds such as integrated assessment modeling. We ﬁnd that many deﬁnitions are not compatible, are implicit, and are sometimes lacking. To resolve the conﬂicts and inconsistencies within the current deﬁnitions, we propose a hierarchical system of terms and deﬁnitions, a practical ontology, for describing objects, their properties, and events in SEM. We propose a typology of object properties and use sets to group objects into a hierarchical, mutually exclusive, and collectively exhaustive (H-MECE) classiﬁcation. This grouping leads to a general deﬁnition of stocks. We show that a MECE representation of events necessarily requires two complementary concepts: processes and ﬂows, for which we propose general deﬁnitions based on sets. Using these deﬁnitions, we show that the system structure of any interdisciplinary model of SEM can be formulated as a directed graph. We propose guidelines for semantic data annotation and database design, which can help to turn the vision of a powerful data infrastructure for SEM research into reality.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},
	author = {Pauliuk, Stefan and Majeau‐Bettez, Guillaume and Müller, Daniel B. and Hertwich, Edgar G.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2016},
	pages = {1260--1272},
	file = {Pauliuk et al. - 2016 - Toward a Practical Ontology for Socioeconomic Meta.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\U7V796I7\\Pauliuk et al. - 2016 - Toward a Practical Ontology for Socioeconomic Meta.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{ostrom_general_2009,
	title = {A {General} {Framework} for {Analyzing} {Sustainability} of {Social}-{Ecological} {Systems}},
	volume = {325},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1172133},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1172133},
	abstract = {A major problem worldwide is the potential loss of fisheries, forests, and water resources. Understanding of the processes that lead to improvements in or deterioration of natural resources is limited, because scientific disciplines use different concepts and languages to describe and explain complex social-ecological systems (SESs). Without a common framework to organize findings, isolated knowledge does not cumulate. Until recently, accepted theory has assumed that resource users will never self-organize to maintain their resources and that governments must impose solutions. Research in multiple disciplines, however, has found that some government policies accelerate resource destruction, whereas some resource users have invested their time and energy to achieve sustainability. A general framework is used to identify 10 subsystem variables that affect the likelihood of self-organization in efforts to achieve a sustainable SES.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5939},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Ostrom, Elinor},
	month = jul,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {419--422},
	file = {Ostrom - 2009 - A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability o.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\YMVTMC2H\\Ostrom - 2009 - A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability o.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{gerber_search_2018,
	title = {In {Search} of {Substantive} {Economics}: {Comparing} {Today}'s {Two} {Major} {Socio}-metabolic {Approaches} to the {Economy} – {MEFA} and {MuSIASEM}},
	volume = {144},
	issn = {09218009},
	shorttitle = {In {Search} of {Substantive} {Economics}},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800917304822},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.08.012},
	abstract = {Ecological economics is largely about the ‘substantive’ (in ‘kind’) study of the economy, as opposed to a purely ‘formal’ economic analysis (in ‘money’). Following Kapp, Polanyi and others, this article argues that ‘substantive economics’ is interested in the biophysical and politico-institutional structure of the economy rather than in correct prices within a particular axiomatic conformity, as in ‘formal economics’. After outlining the history of the substantive vs. formal dichotomy, we point out that socio-metabolic analyses are ecological economics' most signiﬁcant contribution towards substantive economics. The core of this article then compares what could be today's two best candidates for oﬀering a distinctive foundation to ecological economics as substantive economics: Material and Energy Flows Analyses (MEFA) and Multi-Scale Integrated Analyses of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM). While MEFA is more easily comparative and historical, MuSIASEM is more integrative and comprehensive. Yet we also argue that socio-metabolic analyses represent one of the three pillars of substantive economics and that both MEFA and MuSIASEM are still weak in integrating the politico-institutional structure (second pillar) and a theory of needs (third pillar). If such an integration was done, ecological economics would be in a position to oﬀer a full-ﬂedge, alternative ‘substantive economic theory’.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Ecological Economics},
	author = {Gerber, Julien-François and Scheidel, Arnim},
	month = feb,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {186--194},
	file = {Gerber et Scheidel - 2018 - In Search of Substantive Economics Comparing Toda.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\N69KXP66\\Gerber et Scheidel - 2018 - In Search of Substantive Economics Comparing Toda.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{giampietro_multi-scale_2009,
	title = {Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism ({MuSIASEM}): {Theoretical} concepts and basic rationale},
	volume = {34},
	copyright = {https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/},
	issn = {03605442},
	shorttitle = {Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism ({MuSIASEM})},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544208001965},
	doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2008.07.020},
	abstract = {The multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach makes it possible to perform a check on the feasibility and desirability of patterns of metabolism of socioeconomic systems by providing a characterization at different levels and scales of: (a) the performance of socio-economic activities (for households, enterprises, economic sectors, national economies, world economy) and (b) ecological constraints (micro, meso, macro) by looking at the interference that the metabolism of matter and energy ﬂows controlled by human activity induces on the expected pattern of metabolism of matter and energy ﬂows associated with the self-organization of natural ecosystems. This paper presents three theoretical concepts behind the analytical approach MuSIASEM: (1) how to represent the endosomatic and exosomatic metabolism of societies using Georgescu-Roegen’s ﬂow–fund scheme; (2) how to generate a Sudoku effect across representations of different units of production and consumption deﬁned at different levels; and (3) how to perform an impredicative loop analysis when dealing with changes (evolution) of the characteristics of dynamic budgets of metabolized ﬂows, represented across different scales. Since sustainability deals with ‘‘becoming systems’’—systems becoming something else in their process of evolution—an analysis of sustainability must adopt analytical tools semantically open in their representation of change. MuSIASEM can do that since it is a ‘‘multi-purpose grammar’’, which can be used for building a shared perception and representation of this ‘‘becoming’’ when studying sustainability. That is, it entails an agreement on an expected set of relations between ‘‘relevant semantic categories’’ and ‘‘pertinent formal categories’’ across hierarchical levels and across different narratives; for this reason it represents a clear discontinuity from models developed within the paradigm of reductionism to deal with the issue of sustainability.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Energy},
	author = {Giampietro, Mario and Mayumi, Kozo and Ramos-Martin, Jesus},
	month = mar,
	year = {2009},
	pages = {313--322},
	file = {Giampietro et al. - 2009 - Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ec.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\T5LE9FUM\\Giampietro et al. - 2009 - Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ec.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{sousa_need_2017,
	title = {The {Need} for {Robust}, {Consistent} {Methods} in {Societal} {Exergy} {Accounting}},
	volume = {141},
	issn = {09218009},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800916309363},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.05.020},
	abstract = {Studies of societal exergy use have the common aim of tracing the ﬂow of exergy along society, and are used to gain insights into the efﬁciency of energy use and linkages to economic growth. However, their methodological approaches vary greatly, with signiﬁcant impacts on results. Therefore, we make a review of past studies to identify, synthesize and discuss methodological differences, to contribute to a more consistent and robust approach to societal exergy accounting. Issues that should be taken into account when making methodological options are discussed and key insights are presented: (1) For mapping of primary inputs and useful exergy categories, the inclusion of all natural resources is more consistent but it has the cost of not being able to distinguish the various energy end-uses in the production of materials. (2) To estimate primary electricity, none of the methods currently used is able to capture simultaneously the efﬁciency of the renewable energy sector, the environmental impact and the efﬁciency of energy use in society. (3) To estimate ﬁnal-to-useful exergy conversion efﬁciencies, standard thermodynamic deﬁnitions should be used because the use of proxies fails to distinguish between increases in exergy efﬁciency and increases in the efﬁciency of providing energy services.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Ecological Economics},
	author = {Sousa, Tânia and Brockway, Paul E. and Cullen, Jonathan M. and Henriques, Sofia Teives and Miller, Jack and Serrenho, André Cabrera and Domingos, Tiago},
	month = nov,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {11--21},
	file = {Sousa et al. - 2017 - The Need for Robust, Consistent Methods in Societa.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\7K3759J9\\Sousa et al. - 2017 - The Need for Robust, Consistent Methods in Societa.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{cleveland_energy_1984,
	title = {Energy and the {U}.{S}. {Economy}: {A} {Biophysical} {Perspective}},
	volume = {225},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	shorttitle = {Energy and the {U}.{S}. {Economy}},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.225.4665.890},
	doi = {10.1126/science.225.4665.890},
	abstract = {A series of hypotheses is presented about the relation of national energy use to national economic activity (both time series and cross-sectional) which offer a different perspective from standard economics for the assessment of historical and current economic events. The analysis incorporates nearly 100 years of time series data and 3 years of cross-sectional data on 87 sectors of the United States economy. Gross national product, labor productivity, and price levels are all correlated closely with various aspects of energy use, and these correlations are improved when corrections are made for energy quality. A large portion of the apparent increase in U.S. energy efficiency has been due to our ability to expand the relative use of high-quality fuels such as petroleum and electricity, and also to relative shifts in fuel use between sectors of the economy. The concept of energy return on investment is introduced as a major driving force in our economy, and data are provided which show a marked decline in energy return on investment for all our principal fuels in recent decades. Future economic growth will depend largely on the net energy yield of alternative fuel sources, and some standard economic models may need to be modified to account for the biophysical constraints on human economic activity.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4665},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Cleveland, Cutler J. and Costanza, Robert and Hall, Charles A. S. and Kaufmann, Robert},
	month = aug,
	year = {1984},
	pages = {890--897},
	file = {Cleveland et al. - 1984 - Energy and the U.S. Economy A Biophysical Perspec.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\KG6Y3NF8\\Cleveland et al. - 1984 - Energy and the U.S. Economy A Biophysical Perspec.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{ayres_production_1969,
	title = {Production, {Consumption}, and {Externalities}},
	volume = {59},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1808958},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	journal = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Ayres, Robert U. and work(s):, Allen V. Kneese Reviewed},
	year = {1969},
	pages = {282--297},
	file = {Ayres et work(s) - 1969 - Production, Consumption, and Externalities.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\238SW9AY\\Ayres et work(s) - 1969 - Production, Consumption, and Externalities.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{krausmann_material_2017,
	title = {Material {Flow} {Accounting}: {Measuring} {Global} {Material} {Use} for {Sustainable} {Development}},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {1543-5938, 1545-2050},
	shorttitle = {Material {Flow} {Accounting}},
	url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060726},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060726},
	abstract = {The growing extraction of natural resources and the waste and emissions resulting from their use are directly or indirectly responsible for humanity approaching or even surpassing critical planetary boundaries. A sound knowledge base of society’s metabolism, i.e., the physical exchange processes between society and its natural environment and the production and consumption processes involved, is essential to develop strategies for more sustainable resource use. Economy-wide material ﬂow accounting (MFA) is a framework that provides consistent compilations of the material inputs to national economies, changes in material stocks within the economic system, and material outputs to other economies and the environment. We present the conceptual foundations of MFA and derived indicators and review the current state of knowledge of global patterns and trends of extraction, trade, and use of materials. We discuss the relation of material use and economic development and the decoupling of material use from economic growth in the context of sustainable resource use policies.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Annual Review of Environment and Resources},
	author = {Krausmann, Fridolin and Schandl, Heinz and Eisenmenger, Nina and Giljum, Stefan and Jackson, Tim},
	month = oct,
	year = {2017},
	pages = {647--675},
	file = {Krausmann et al. - 2017 - Material Flow Accounting Measuring Global Materia.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\XGNXDFN7\\Krausmann et al. - 2017 - Material Flow Accounting Measuring Global Materia.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{alma9919073633902959,
author = {Ayres, Robert U. and Ayres, Leslie},
address = {Cheltenham, UK ;},
booktitle = {Accounting for resources, 1 : economy-wide applications of mass-balance principles to materials and waste},
isbn = {1858986400},
keywords = {Factory and trade waste -- Management},
language = {eng},
lccn = {98017085 //r98},
publisher = {Edward Elgar},
title = {Accounting for resources, 1 : economy-wide applications of mass-balance principles to materials and waste },
year = {1998},
}

@article{leontief_environmental_1970,
	title = {Environmental {Repercussions} and the {Economic} {Structure}: {An} {Input}-{Output} {Approach}},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {00346535},
	shorttitle = {Environmental {Repercussions} and the {Economic} {Structure}},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/1926294?origin=crossref},
	doi = {10.2307/1926294},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	journal = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
	author = {Leontief, Wassily},
	month = aug,
	year = {1970},
	pages = {262},
	file = {Leontief - 1970 - Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Struc.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\PGDHYDQK\\Leontief - 1970 - Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Struc.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{stadler_exiobase_2018,
	title = {{EXIOBASE} 3: {Developing} a {Time} {Series} of {Detailed} {Environmentally} {Extended} {Multi}‐{Regional} {Input}‐{Output} {Tables}},
	volume = {22},
	copyright = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
	issn = {1088-1980, 1530-9290},
	shorttitle = {{EXIOBASE} 3},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.12715},
	doi = {10.1111/jiec.12715},
	abstract = {Environmentally extended multiregional input-output (EE MRIO) tables have emerged as a key framework to provide a comprehensive description of the global economy and analyze its effects on the environment. Of the available EE MRIO databases, EXIOBASE stands out as a database compatible with the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) with a high sectorial detail matched with multiple social and environmental satellite accounts. In this paper, we present the latest developments realized with EXIOBASE 3—a time series of EE MRIO tables ranging from 1995 to 2011 for 44 countries (28 EU member plus 16 major economies) and ﬁve rest of the world regions. EXIOBASE 3 builds upon the previous versions of EXIOBASE by using rectangular supply-use tables (SUTs) in a 163 industry by 200 products classiﬁcation as the main building blocks. In order to capture structural changes, economic developments, as reported by national statistical agencies, were imposed on the available, disaggregated SUTs from EXIOBASE 2. These initial estimates were further reﬁned by incorporating detailed data on energy, agricultural production, resource extraction, and bilateral trade. EXIOBASE 3 inherits the high level of environmental stressor detail from its precursor, with further improvement in the level of detail for resource extraction. To account for the expansion of the European Union (EU), EXIOBASE 3 was developed with the full EU28 country set (including the new member state Croatia). EXIOBASE 3 provides a unique tool for analyzing the dynamics of environmental pressures of economic activities over time.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	journal = {Journal of Industrial Ecology},
	author = {Stadler, Konstantin and Wood, Richard and Bulavskaya, Tatyana and Södersten, Carl‐Johan and Simas, Moana and Schmidt, Sarah and Usubiaga, Arkaitz and Acosta‐Fernández, José and Kuenen, Jeroen and Bruckner, Martin and Giljum, Stefan and Lutter, Stephan and Merciai, Stefano and Schmidt, Jannick H. and Theurl, Michaela C. and Plutzar, Christoph and Kastner, Thomas and Eisenmenger, Nina and Erb, Karl‐Heinz and De Koning, Arjan and Tukker, Arnold},
	month = jun,
	year = {2018},
	pages = {502--515},
	file = {Stadler et al. - 2018 - EXIOBASE 3 Developing a Time Series of Detailed E.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\2VEM7BZT\\Stadler et al. - 2018 - EXIOBASE 3 Developing a Time Series of Detailed E.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{earles_consequential_2011,
	title = {Consequential life cycle assessment: a review},
	volume = {16},
	copyright = {http://www.springer.com/tdm},
	issn = {0948-3349, 1614-7502},
	shorttitle = {Consequential life cycle assessment},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11367-011-0275-9},
	doi = {10.1007/s11367-011-0275-9},
	abstract = {Purpose Over the past two decades, consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) has emerged as a modeling approach for capturing environmental impacts of product systems beyond physical relationships accounted for in attributional LCA (ALCA). Put simply, CLCA represents the convergence of LCA and economic modeling approaches.
Method In this study, a systematic literature review of CLCA is performed.
Results While initial efforts to integrate the two modeling methods relied on simple partial equilibrium (PE) modeling and a heuristic approach to determining affected technologies, more recent techniques incorporate sophisticated economic models for this purpose. In the last 3 years, Multi-Market, Multi-Regional PE Models and Computable General Equilibrium models have been used. Moreover, the incorporation of other economic notions into CLCA, such as rebound effects and experience curves, has been the focus of later research. Since economic modeling can play a prominent role in national policy-making and strategic/corporate environmental planning, developing the capacity to operate LCA concurrent to, or integrated with, these models is of growing importance.
Conclusions This paper outlines the historical development of such efforts in CLCA, discusses key methodological advancements, and characterizes previous literature on the topic. Based on this review, we provide an outlook for further research in CLCA.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	journal = {The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment},
	author = {Earles, J. Mason and Halog, Anthony},
	month = jun,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {445--453},
	file = {Earles et Halog - 2011 - Consequential life cycle assessment a review.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\Z56ZN8IP\\Earles et Halog - 2011 - Consequential life cycle assessment a review.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{liu_complexity_2007,
	title = {Complexity of {Coupled} {Human} and {Natural} {Systems}},
	volume = {317},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1144004},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1144004},
	abstract = {Integrated studies of coupled human and natural systems reveal new and complex patterns and processes not evident when studied by social or natural scientists separately. Synthesis of six case studies from around the world shows that couplings between human and natural systems vary across space, time, and organizational units. They also exhibit nonlinear dynamics with thresholds, reciprocal feedback loops, time lags, resilience, heterogeneity, and surprises. Furthermore, past couplings have legacy effects on present conditions and future possibilities.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5844},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Liu, Jianguo and Dietz, Thomas and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Alberti, Marina and Folke, Carl and Moran, Emilio and Pell, Alice N. and Deadman, Peter and Kratz, Timothy and Lubchenco, Jane and Ostrom, Elinor and Ouyang, Zhiyun and Provencher, William and Redman, Charles L. and Schneider, Stephen H. and Taylor, William W.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2007},
	pages = {1513--1516},
	file = {Liu et al. - 2007 - Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\75TTNS3R\\Liu et al. - 2007 - Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{liu_coupled_2021,
	title = {Coupled human and natural systems: {The} evolution and applications of an integrated framework: {This} article belongs to {Ambio}’s 50th {Anniversary} {Collection}. {Theme}: {Anthropocene}},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0044-7447, 1654-7209},
	shorttitle = {Coupled human and natural systems},
	url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13280-020-01488-5},
	doi = {10.1007/s13280-020-01488-5},
	language = {en},
	number = {10},
	journal = {Ambio},
	author = {Liu, Jianguo and Dietz, Thomas and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Taylor, William W. and Alberti, Marina and Deadman, Peter and Redman, Charles and Pell, Alice and Folke, Carl and Ouyang, Zhiyun and Lubchenco, Jane},
	month = oct,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {1778--1783},
	file = {Liu et al. - 2021 - Coupled human and natural systems The evolution a.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\AIFLZRRD\\Liu et al. - 2021 - Coupled human and natural systems The evolution a.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{pauliuk_socioeconomic_2015,
	title = {Socioeconomic metabolism as paradigm for studying the biophysical basis of human societies},
	volume = {119},
	issn = {09218009},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800915003481},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.08.012},
	abstract = {A wide spectrum of quantitative systems approaches such as life cycle assessment or integrated assessment models are available to assess sustainable development strategies. These methods describe certain aspects of the biophysical basis of society, which comprises in-use stocks and the processes and ﬂows that maintain and operate these stocks. Despite this commonality, the methods are often developed and applied in isolation, which dampens scientiﬁc progress and complicates communication between scientists and decision makers. As research on socioecological systems matures, more structure and classiﬁcation are needed. We argue that the concept of socioeconomic metabolism (SEM), which was developed in material ﬂow analysis and material ﬂow accounting, is a powerful boundary object that can serve as paradigm for studying the biophysical basis of human society. A common paradigm can facilitate model combination and integration, which can lead to more robust and comprehensive interdisciplinary assessments of sustainable development strategies. We reﬁne the notion of SEM, clarify the relation between SEM and the economy, and provide a list of features that we believe qualiﬁes SEM as research paradigm. We argue that SEM as paradigm can help to justify alternative economic concepts, suggest analogies that make the concept more accessible, and discuss its limitations.},
	language = {en},
	journal = {Ecological Economics},
	author = {Pauliuk, Stefan and Hertwich, Edgar G.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {intro mater concept},
	pages = {83--93},
	file = {Pauliuk et Hertwich - 2015 - Socioeconomic metabolism as paradigm for studying .pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\JS8CV2Z5\\Pauliuk et Hertwich - 2015 - Socioeconomic metabolism as paradigm for studying .pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{steffen_anthropocene_2011,
	title = {The {Anthropocene}: conceptual and historical perspectives},
	volume = {369},
	issn = {1364-503X, 1471-2962},
	shorttitle = {The {Anthropocene}},
	url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2010.0327},
	doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0327},
	abstract = {The human imprint on the global environment has now become so large and active that it rivals some of the great forces of Nature in its impact on the functioning of the Earth system. Although global-scale human influence on the environment has been recognized since the 1800s, the term
              Anthropocene
              , introduced about a decade ago, has only recently become widely, but informally, used in the global change research community. However, the term has yet to be accepted formally as a new geological epoch or era in Earth history. In this paper, we put forward the case for formally recognizing the Anthropocene as a new epoch in Earth history, arguing that the advent of the Industrial Revolution around 1800 provides a logical start date for the new epoch. We then explore recent trends in the evolution of the Anthropocene as humanity proceeds into the twenty-first century, focusing on the profound changes to our relationship with the rest of the living world and on early attempts and proposals for managing our relationship with the large geophysical cycles that drive the Earth’s climate system.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1938},
	journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
	author = {Steffen, Will and Grinevald, Jacques and Crutzen, Paul and McNeill, John},
	month = mar,
	year = {2011},
	pages = {842--867},
	file = {Steffen et al. - 2011 - The Anthropocene conceptual and historical perspe.pdf:C\:\\Users\\verzierf\\Zotero\\storage\\SCFT84BL\\Steffen et al. - 2011 - The Anthropocene conceptual and historical perspe.pdf:application/pdf},
}
