# Confidence Assessments -- LLMHosts.com

## PURPOSE
Periodic honest evaluation of project viability, progress, and risk. Run at major milestones, phase boundaries, or on founder request. Each assessment is a snapshot -- the trend across assessments matters more than any single score.

## FORMAT
- Filename: `YYYY-MM-DD_confidence-NNN.md`
- Scores: 0-100 scale per dimension
- Composite: weighted average (weights reflect what actually drives success)
- Delta: change from previous assessment (trend tracking)

## DIMENSIONS & WEIGHTS

| Dimension | Weight | What It Measures |
|-----------|--------|-----------------|
| Technical Feasibility | 15% | Can we build it? Are the hard parts solvable? |
| Market Validity | 20% | Is the pain real? Will people pay? |
| Execution Velocity | 20% | Are we shipping fast enough vs. competition? |
| Competitive Moat | 15% | Can others replicate easily? What's defensible? |
| Revenue Path | 20% | Is the money model working? Conversion, retention, growth? |
| Founder Capacity | 10% | Solo founder bandwidth, burnout risk, key-person dependency |

## SCORING GUIDE

| Range | Label | Meaning |
|-------|-------|---------|
| 80-100 | Strong | High confidence, evidence-backed, low risk |
| 60-79 | Moderate | Reasonable confidence, some unknowns, manageable risk |
| 40-59 | Uncertain | Could go either way, significant unknowns or risks |
| 20-39 | Weak | Major concerns, needs course correction |
| 0-19 | Critical | Existential risk, stop and reassess |

## ASSESSMENT INDEX

| # | Date | Phase | Composite | Delta | Trigger | Methodology |
|---|------|-------|-----------|-------|---------|-------------|
| 001 | 2026-02-14 | Step 1 complete | 58 | -- | First assessment (baseline) | Manual (6 dimensions) |
| 002 | 2026-02-14 | Step 1 + plan | 66 | +8 | Post-improvement-plan reassessment | Manual (6 dimensions) |
| 003 | 2026-02-14 | SPEC | 38 | -28 | Sentinel v1.0 proof-of-concept | Sentinel v1.0 (24 sub-dimensions, evidence-graded, bias-checked) |

**Note on Assessment 003 delta**: The -28 point drop from 002 to 003 reflects Sentinel's stricter methodology (evidence tier caps, dimensional isolation, no credit for plans-as-execution), not a deterioration in the project. Sentinel's 38 for a SPEC-phase project with zero shipped features is calibrated against 100-project simulation benchmarks (SPEC phase median: 50-65).

## IMPROVEMENT PLANS

| # | Date | Trigger | Key Changes |
|---|------|---------|-------------|
| 001 | 2026-02-14 | Assessment 001 scored 58 | Two-wave release, tunnel to Phase 1, add Helicone to competitive analysis, realistic conversion rates, parallel marketing, fix 6 doc inconsistencies |

## WHEN TO RUN
- After each implementation blueprint step completion
- At phase boundaries (Phase 1 → 2, etc.)
- After major course corrections
- On founder request
- Monthly minimum even if no milestone hit
