# Polymarket Trading Data

## Data Overview

This dataset contains trading activity from the top 2000 Polymarket wallets since July 1, 2024:
- **100M+ trades** in chain_trades_top2000.parquet
- **898 analyzed wallets** in wallet_notes.parquet (after filtering)
- **469,521 unique markets** in polymarket_markets.parquet

## Key Data Relationships

```
chain_trades (maker_asset/taker_asset)
    → token_lookup (token_id → condition_id, outcome)
        → polymarket_markets (condition_id → question, event_title)
```

## Strategy Findings

| Strategy | Count | Avg Win Rate | Median Capital |
|----------|-------|--------------|----------------|
| sports_bettor | 188 | 58% | $12K |
| bet_the_field_trade | 185 | 14%* | $9K |
| active_trader | 156 | 22% | $10K |
| bet_the_field_hold | 97 | 74% | $211K |
| crypto_trader | 82 | 68% | - |
| political_specialist | 43 | 38% | - |
| longshot_buyer | 23 | 27% | - |

*Win rate is misleading for traders - they profit from selling, not redemptions.

## Important Notes

1. **Win rate is only meaningful for hold strategies.** Traders show 0% win rate but can be highly profitable.

2. **P&L = sell_vol + redemptions - buy_vol** is a better metric for comparing strategies.

3. **Every Polymarket condition has exactly 2 outcomes** (YES/NO). Multi-outcome events use multiple conditions grouped by event_title.

4. **Bet-the-field requires grouping by event_title**, not condition_id. One event can have 10+ conditions.

5. **Market makers were excluded** (maker_ratio > 70%, two_sided > 30%, trades > 5000). They profit from spread, not predictions.
