data_overview: |
  This dataset contains trading activity from the top 2000 Polymarket wallets since July 1, 2024:
  - 100M+ trades in chain_trades_top2000.parquet
  - 898 analyzed wallets in wallet_notes.parquet (after filtering)
  - 469,521 unique markets in polymarket_markets.parquet

data_relationships: |
  chain_trades (maker_asset/taker_asset)
    → token_lookup (token_id → condition_id, outcome)
      → polymarket_markets (condition_id → question, event_title)

strategy_findings: |
  | Strategy | Count | Avg Win Rate | Median Capital |
  |----------|-------|--------------|----------------|
  | sports_bettor | 188 | 58% | $12K |
  | bet_the_field_trade | 185 | 14%* | $9K |
  | active_trader | 156 | 22% | $10K |
  | bet_the_field_hold | 97 | 74% | $211K |
  | crypto_trader | 82 | 68% | - |
  | political_specialist | 43 | 38% | - |
  | longshot_buyer | 23 | 27% | - |

  *Win rate is misleading for traders - they profit from selling, not redemptions.

win_rate_caveat: "Win rate is only meaningful for hold strategies. Traders show 0% win rate but can be highly profitable."

pnl_formula: "P&L = sell_vol + redemptions - buy_vol is a better metric for comparing strategies."

condition_structure: "Every Polymarket condition has exactly 2 outcomes (YES/NO). Multi-outcome events use multiple conditions grouped by event_title."

bet_the_field_grouping: "Bet-the-field requires grouping by event_title, not condition_id. One event can have 10+ conditions."

market_maker_exclusion: "Market makers were excluded (maker_ratio > 70%, two_sided > 30%, trades > 5000). They profit from spread, not predictions."
