# The Doom Loop

How to detect and escape the opposite of flywheel momentum.

---

## What is the Doom Loop?

The doom loop is the opposite of the flywheel effect. Instead of building cumulative momentum through consistent effort, companies in the doom loop:

- React instead of drive
- Restart instead of build
- Blame instead of learn
- Hope for breakthroughs instead of compounding small wins

**The pattern:**
```
Disappointing results → Reaction (new strategy) →
New direction (no momentum) → Disappointing results → Reaction...
```

Each cycle abandons previous work before it compounds. The company never builds momentum.

---

## Flywheel vs. Doom Loop

| Flywheel Companies | Doom Loop Companies |
|--------------------|---------------------|
| Consistent strategy over years | New strategy every year |
| Build on past initiatives | Abandon past initiatives |
| Focus on cumulative progress | Focus on silver bullets |
| Success feels inevitable | Success feels lucky |
| Calm, disciplined execution | Reactive, frantic activity |
| Clear "no" to distractions | Chase every opportunity |
| Credit momentum | Credit single events |
| Patient with results | Impatient, demanding quick wins |

---

## Doom Loop Symptoms

### 1. Strategy Whiplash

**Signs:**
- Major strategy change every 12-18 months
- Leadership announces "new era" or "transformation"
- Previous strategies labeled as failures
- Teams constantly pivoting

**Test question:** "What was our strategy 3 years ago? Are we still building on it?"

### 2. Breakthrough Obsession

**Signs:**
- Constant search for "the one thing" that will change everything
- Over-reliance on acquisitions, new products, or market pivots
- Disappointment when initiatives don't immediately transform results
- Celebration of launches over sustained performance

**Test question:** "Are we looking for a silver bullet or building a flywheel?"

### 3. Comparison-Driven Decisions

**Signs:**
- Strategy shaped by competitor moves ("They launched X, we need X")
- Chasing trends and hot markets
- Fear-based decisions ("We'll be left behind")
- Benchmarking without understanding fit

**Test question:** "Are we doing this because it fits our flywheel or because others are doing it?"

### 4. Blame and Replace

**Signs:**
- New leadership blamed for old problems
- Old leadership blamed for current problems
- Frequent executive turnover
- "This time we have the right team"

**Test question:** "Have we changed strategy/leaders more than 2x in 5 years?"

### 5. No Cumulative Progress

**Signs:**
- Each year feels like starting over
- Past work doesn't compound into future advantage
- Institutional knowledge lost
- "We've tried that before" (but didn't persist)

**Test question:** "Looking back 3 years, can we point to cumulative momentum?"

---

## Root Causes

### Impatience

Flywheels take time. Early pushes barely move the wheel. Leaders (or boards) who expect quick results will abandon the flywheel before it gains momentum.

**The trap:** "It's been 6 months and we're not seeing results. Let's try something else."

**The reality:** Good-to-great transformations took an average of 4+ years before breakthrough results appeared.

### Misattribution of Success

When something works, doom-loop companies attribute it to a single cause ("The new campaign!") rather than cumulative momentum.

**The trap:** Trying to replicate "silver bullets" instead of consistent flywheel effort.

**The reality:** Flywheel success is overdetermined - it's the combination of many aligned efforts.

### Lack of Clarity

If you can't articulate your flywheel clearly, you can't execute it consistently. Every new initiative becomes disconnected from the last.

**The trap:** "Our strategy is complex" = no strategy

**The reality:** If you can't draw your flywheel simply, you can't build momentum.

### Wrong Metrics

Measuring outputs (launches, features) instead of flywheel momentum (component health, growth rates).

**The trap:** "We shipped 50 features this year!"

**The reality:** Did those features strengthen your flywheel?

---

## Escaping the Doom Loop

### Step 1: Admit You're In It

Denial perpetuates the loop. Signs you might be in denial:
- "This strategy change is different"
- "The last strategy was flawed; this one is right"
- "We just need the right execution"

**Honest assessment:** How many strategy changes in 5 years? Do initiatives build on each other?

### Step 2: Stop the Bleeding

Before building a flywheel, stop the doom loop behaviors:
- Pause new major initiatives
- Stop reacting to competitors
- Resist the "new direction" temptation
- Create space for clarity

### Step 3: Find Your Flywheel

Work backwards from your best results:
- When did you actually grow?
- What was happening?
- What self-reinforcing pattern existed?

This might reveal a flywheel you abandoned, or one you've never clearly articulated.

### Step 4: Commit to Consistency

The hardest part. Requires:
- Leadership alignment on the flywheel
- Saying no to off-flywheel opportunities
- Patience through early stages
- Measuring flywheel health, not just results

### Step 5: Build Institutional Momentum

- Document the flywheel so it survives leadership changes
- Align incentives to flywheel components
- Make flywheel language part of decision-making
- Celebrate consistency, not just results

---

## Doom Loop in Organizations

### At the Company Level

**Symptom:** Frequent restructuring, new strategic plans, executive turnover.

**Impact:** Company never builds cumulative advantage. Competitors with flywheel discipline pull ahead.

### At the Team Level

**Symptom:** Constant reprioritization, abandoned projects, shifting focus.

**Impact:** Team never finishes anything. Morale suffers. Best people leave.

### At the Individual Level

**Symptom:** Chasing trends, switching roles/approaches frequently, blaming circumstances.

**Impact:** Skills don't compound. Career stalls despite activity.

---

## Case Study: Circuit City vs. Best Buy

**Circuit City (Doom Loop):**
- Abandoned successful format for new store concepts
- Fired experienced (expensive) sales staff
- Chased consumer electronics trends
- Filed for bankruptcy in 2008

**Best Buy (Flywheel):**
- Consistent "customer-centricity" strategy over decades
- Built cumulative advantages in service and supply chain
- Invested through downturns
- Survived and adapted to Amazon era

**Key difference:** Best Buy built on previous work. Circuit City abandoned it.

---

## Warning Signs Checklist

Use this to assess doom loop risk:

**Strategy:**
- [ ] Changed strategy more than once in 3 years
- [ ] Current strategy doesn't build on previous work
- [ ] Strategies are reactions to competitors or market shifts

**Execution:**
- [ ] Major initiatives frequently abandoned
- [ ] Teams regularly restructured
- [ ] New leaders "start fresh" rather than build on past

**Mindset:**
- [ ] Leadership seeking "breakthrough" or "transformation"
- [ ] Past efforts labeled as failures rather than learning
- [ ] Success attributed to single events, not cumulative effort

**Results:**
- [ ] Growth is spiky rather than compounding
- [ ] Each year feels like starting over
- [ ] Company isn't pulling ahead of peers over time

**Score:**
- 0-3 checks: Probably healthy
- 4-6 checks: Doom loop warning signs
- 7+ checks: Likely in doom loop

---

## Key Quotes

> "Those who launch revolutions, dramatic change programs, and wrenching restructurings will almost certainly fail to make the leap from good to great." - Jim Collins

> "The comparison companies frequently tried to create a breakthrough with one big program, one grand innovation, one lucky break. They pushed the flywheel in one direction, then stopped, changed course, and threw it in a new direction—and then stopped, changed course, and threw it in yet another direction. After years of lurching back and forth, the comparison companies failed to build sustained momentum." - Jim Collins

> "Doom loop companies often launched big programs with great fanfare—only to see them fail to produce sustained results. They then reacted by searching for the next silver bullet, never building momentum." - Jim Collins
